YRFI and NRFI MLB Best Bets for Friday, September 22

By Jared Smith  ( 

September 22, 2023 11:35 AM

Best Bets on Today's MLB YRFI and NRFI Markets

I went 1-0 with last Sunday’s best bet as the slight tweak in strategy proved fruitful. In case you need a refresher, the goal is to eliminate some of the variance involved with the NRFI by selecting two games and parlaying under 1.5 runs in the first inning for each. This gives us a little cushion and allows us to consolidate our depleted bankroll into making one wager and paying just one vig. Let’s see if we can carry the momentum forward into this weekend and finish the season on a high note. 

One parlay, two games, two units. Keep reading to find out my best bet for Friday, September 22nd which was priced at -152 on DraftKings at the time of publication.

Best Bets Season Record: 59-60 (49.6%) -16.76u -6.4% ROI


Kansas City Royals at Houston Astros

Cole Ragans has been lights out since being moved to the rotation in July with a perfect 10-0 NRFI record. The recent form is even more impressive with a 0.91 WHIP over his last three starts allowing just one home run in that span. The Astros lineup is elite with an above-average scoring rate in the first inning, but they’ve actually been slightly better on the road than at home. 

Framber Valdez has been consistently one of the best pitchers in baseball this season with a 25-4 NRFI record and 2.48 xFIP in the first inning. The recent form has been just as strong with a 2.48 ERA and 1.01 WHIP over his last three starts. The Royals lineup has been pesky in the first inning this season, but their scoring rate drops dramatically from 35% at home to 21% on the road. 

Parlay Leg #1: Under 1.5 1st Inning (-360)


Detroit Tigers at Oakland Athletics

Sawyer Gipson-Long has looked good in his first two starts since being called up from the minors with a 2-0 NRFI record and eye-popping 67% strikeout rate in the first inning. Obviously, it’s a short sample, but he clearly has decent stuff and isn’t shying away from the moment. He draws the easier side of this matchup against an Athletics lineup that has just a 15% scoring rate at home this season, the lowest in baseball.

Ken Waldichuk is 14-6 to the NRFI this season with average data across the board. His recent form has been a little better with a 3.38 ERA and 1.06 WHIP over his last three starts. The Tigers lineup can be explosive at the top, most notably Spencer Torkelson and Kerry Carpenter. Waldichuk is a lefty, which should neutralize Carpenter’s home run power a bit, plus he’s never faced the fellow lefty before. Meanwhile, Torkelson is 0-2 career vs. Waldichuk. 

Parlay Leg #2: Under 1.5 1st Inning (-330)


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