Best Bets on Today's MLB YRFI and NRFI Markets
I went 1-1 on last Sunday’s best bets capping off a flat 3-3 week. There’s three weekends left in the regular season, which means I have 18 selections remaining with and still a slight chance at profitability with this best bets column if I can get hot. Easier said than done in this market with so much of the result relying on variance and luck. That being said, I haven’t noticed a definitive trend to either side this month with the YRFI leading 97-91 (51.6%) entering today’s action. Onward we go into the ides of September.
Keep reading to find out my best bets for Friday, September 15th. I recommend 2 units for each. All odds are via Draftkings but be sure to shop around for the best line as prices vary dramatically in this market.
Best Bets Season Record: 58-56 (50.9%) -10.76u -4.3% ROI
Houston Astros at Kansas City Royals
Cristian Javier is 20-7 (74%) to the NRFI this season which is slightly above league average but his recent form is trending way down with a 6.31 xFIP since August 1st, the highest of any starting pitcher on the board today. I really like the top of this Royals lineup, especially Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez. Kansas City has excelled at home this season with a 35% (25-for-72) scoring rate, which is above league average. The only downside to this matchup is Javier is basically getting a fresh look at this Royals lineup with just seven career plate appearances.
Zack Greinke is 19-4 (83%) to the NRFI this season and a remarkable 12-0 mark at home. Maybe I’m a fool for fading him at home, but when I dig deeper I just don’t see the data necessary to warrant such a clean NRFI record, so I would prefer to bet on the regression monster biting Greinke at some point down the stretch. His recent form shouldn’t instill confidence, failing to last four innings in consecutive outings while allowing a combined seven earned runs off 11 hits. He also has a ton of exposure against this very potent Astros lineup, which has posted a 36% scoring rate on the road this season, the second highest in baseball.
I was able to find -120 available and would play this up to -135 but not at the -140 price being offered by Draftkings at the time of publication. Here’s how the starting pitchers have fared against the projected top of each lineup:
Cristian Javier vs.:
Maikel Garia (never faced)
Bobby Witt Jr. (never faced)
Salvador Perez (0-for-1)
MJ Melendez (0-for-2, K, BB)
Edward Olivares (0-for-2, K)
Zack Greinke vs.:
Jose Altuve (10-for-28, 2B, 3B, HR, 5 Ks, 2 BBs)
Jeremy Pena (1-for-3, HR)
Yordan Alvarez (1-for-3, K)
Alex Bregman (4-for-9, 2B, HR, 2 BBs)
Kyle Tucker (1-for-3)
Bet: Yes Run First Inning (-140)
Los Angeles Dodgers at Seattle Mariners
Bobby Miller is 12-6 (67%) to the NRFI in his rookie campaign, which is below league average. The Mariners have posted a 35% (25-for-71) scoring rate at home this season, slightly above league average. They’ve never seen Miller before, which is always an advantage for the pitcher, but one thing to consider here, and with all younger starters at this time of year, is their workload. For the first time in his professional career, Miller surpassed 100 innings in his last start, and I certainly see fatigue being a factor down the stretch.
George Kirby is 19-8 (70%) to the NRFI this season, slightly below league average, however that mark does jump to 10-2 at home. The Dodgers are elite in the first inning this season with a 38% (27-for-71) scoring rate on the road, the highest rate in baseball. They haven’t seen much of Kirby, but similar to Miller the workload is a concern for me with Kirby surpassing 165 innings in his last start. That’s 35 more innings than last year, and the meter is still running with several starts remaining.
I was able to find +105 and would feel comfortable playing this up to -105, but not at the -110 price being offered by Draftkings at the time of publication. Here’s how the starting pitchers have fared against the projected top of each lineup:
Bobby Miller vs.:
J.P. Crawford (never faced)
Julio Rodriguez (never faced)
Cal Raleigh (never faced)
Teoscar Hernandez (never faced)
Dominic Canzone (never faced)
George Kirby vs.:
Mookie Betts (never faced)
Freddie Freeman (never faced)
Will Smith (never faced)
Max Muncy (never faced)
J.D. Martinez (3-for-6, HR)
Bet: Yes Run First Inning (-110)
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