Best Bets on Today's MLB YRFI and NRFI Markets
The rollercoaster ride continued last week after going 2-0 on Saturday’s best bets, we reverted back to 0-2 on Sunday. The record is still above .500 for the season but not strong enough to outrun the juice. Despite the volatile season for me betting this market, I still feel confident one final push over the last month of the season can push some profits across the finish line.
Keep reading to find out my best bets for Friday, September 1st. I recommend two units for each. All odds are via DraftKings but be sure to shop around for the best line as prices vary dramatically in this market.
Best Bets Season Record: 53-49 (52.0%) -5.96u -2.7% ROI
Boston Red Sox at Kansas City Royals
James Paxton has posted a below-average 11-6 (64.7%) NRFI record this season and his recent form is trending down with a .314 batting average against this month. The home runs are also up, and the strikeout rate is down, both of which are concerning. The Royals' offense has been above average at home this season with a 34.6% (23-for-66) scoring rate. I like the matchups at the top with right-handed hitters Bobby Witt Jr., Salvador Perez, and youngster Darion Blanco, who is 4-for-9 vs. lefties this month with a 1.212 OPS.
Jordan Lyles has been woefully subpar with an 11-14 NRFI record this season and nine home runs allowed in the first inning. I wish I had something nice to say, but I don't. Lyles had a 7.89 ERA in August, and Baseball Savant has him graded in the first percentile for pitching run value, which is essentially saying he is one of the worst pitchers in the entire league. The Red Sox have been subpar on the road this season with just a 23.0% (15-for-65) scoring rate in the first inning, but none of those games have been against Jordan Lyles.
I was able to find -115 widely available in the market and would feel comfortable playing this up to -130. Here’s how the starting pitchers have fared against the projected top of each lineup:
James Paxton vs.:
Maikel Garcia (2-for-3, K)
Bobby Witt Jr. (1-for-3, 2B, K)
Salvador Perez (4-for-15, 2B, 2 Ks)
Jordan Lyles vs.:
Alex Verdugo (5-for-18, 2B, 2 Ks, BB)
Rafael Devers (6-for-19, 3 2Bs, HR, 2 Ks, BB)
Justin Turner (4-for-9, 2B, HR, 4 BBs)
Bet: Yes Run First Inning (-125)
Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals
Eury Perez is 14-1 (93.3%) to the NRFI this season and has been trending up since being recalled from a brief stint in the minors. Perez recorded 12.6 K/9 over 20.2 innings pitched last month with a .187 average against and 0.92 WHIP. The top of the Nationals lineup has been about average this season with a 31.8% scoring rate at home, but I downgrade them considerably if Lane Thomas is out. Thomas missed Thursday’s game with a back injury he suffered the day prior.
Jake Irvin has a slightly below-average NRFI record this season at 14-6 (70.0%), but his stuff has been trending up recently with a 2.35 ERA in August, his lowest posted number of any month all season. Miami’s scoring rate has improved since adding Josh Bell, but their reputation precedes themselves with just a 20% (13-for-65) scoring rate on the road this season.
I was able to find -115 available in the market and would feel comfortable playing this up to -130. Here’s how the starting pitchers have fared against the projected top of each lineup:
Eury Perez vs.:
CJ Abrams (0-for-5)
Joey Meneses (1-for-3, 2B, K)
Keibert Ruiz (0-for-1, BB)
Jake Irvin vs.:
Luis Arraez (0-for-6)
Jorge Soler (1-for-5, K, BB)
Josh Bell (1-for-3, HR, K)
Bet: No Run First Inning (-120)
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