Best Bets on Today's MLB YRFI and NRFI Markets
The 2023 MLB season is underway and VSiN has you covered with every way you can possibly bet on a baseball game. I'm tackling YRFI and NRFI markets here, where you only have to sweat out your bet for about 15 minutes. These markets have increased in popularity over the last couple of years and I will do my best to find you the edge. You can track the results of my MLB wagers this season here. Keep reading to find out my best bets for Friday, May 26th.
All odds via Draftkings
Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves
The Braves are scoring a run in the 1st inning in half of their home games this season (13-of-26) while the Phillies have posted a league best 19-7 YRFI record on the road this season. The pitching matchup and elevated game total touching 10 also tells me early fireworks are likely.
Taijuan Walker has an overall ERA of nearly 6.00 for the Phillies this season. The righty has somehow managed a NRFI record of 6-4, however all 4 times he’s allowed a run in the opening frame it’s been on the road. He is also allowing a .348 batting average against in 53 career plate appearances facing the current Braves lineup. That also includes multiple hits allowed to the projected top of the order, Ronald Acuna (2-for-6), Matt Olson (3-for-7, 2B) and Austin Riley (3-for-7, HR).
Braves starter Jared Shuster has an xFIP of 8.68 in the opening frame this season, the highest of any pitcher starting on Friday. Shuster has only made 4 starts and has split the pair with a YRFI record of 2-2. He does however get the advantage of facing this Phillies lineup for the first time, a lineup that has surprisingly posted the lowest wRC+ against LHP in the 1st inning this season. I feel very strongly about there being positive regression in that category soon, especially with dangerous right-handed bats like Trea Turner and Nick Castellanos at the top of the order.
Please shop around for this number, I was able to get a significantly better price than what was being offered at Draftkings at the time of publication.
Bet: Yes Run First Inning (-155)
Washington Nationals at Kansas City Royals
The best of the bad in terms of pitching matchups today will take place in Kansas City, with Patrick Corbin squaring off against Jordan Lyles. For lack of a better phrase, Lyles is the worst NRFI pitcher in baseball this season with a 2-8 record and 1-4 at home. Some might say however that makes him the best YRFI pitcher, and a 5.32 xFIP in the 1st inning agrees with that claim.
Corbin has danced around some early bullets this season posting a 7-3 NRFI record despite a slightly elevated 4.30 xFIP in the opening frame. He will get the advantage of facing this Royals lineup for basically the first time, with just 19 career plate appearances against, 14 against Matt Duffy, who is not projected to be in Friday’s startling lineup. Regardless, Kansas City is one of the most profitable YRFI teams in baseball this season at home, posting a 18-9 record at Kauffman Stadium with a well above average scoring rate of 44.4% (12-for-27).
The Nationals offense has been pesky in the 1st inning this season, scoring in 30% of their games (15-for-50) which is right on par with the MLB average. While that’s nothing to write home about, the fact that a lineup filled with zero household names is keeping pace with the rest of the league is encouraging, and tells me the Nats might be an undervalued YRFI team.
Bet: Yes Run First Inning (-120)
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