Best Bets on Today's MLB YRFI and NRFI Markets
The 2023 MLB season is underway and VSiN has you covered with every way you can possibly bet on a baseball game. I'm tackling YRFI and NRFI markets here, where you only have to sweat out your bet for about 15 minutes. These markets have increased in popularity over the last couple of years, and I will do my best to find you the edge. You can track the results of my MLB wagers this season here. Keep reading to find out my best bets for Friday, June 2nd.
All odds via DraftKings
Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins
On the surface, this pitching matchup might not look elite, but I think both Aaron Civale and Bailey Ober are trending in a positive direction. Let’s start with Civale, who will get activated from the IL today after missing the last few weeks with an oblique strain. The righty made two starts in April, both against the Mariners, and he did not allow a run in the first inning in either start. He’s made three rehab outings in the minors since the injury with 16 strikeouts to just four walks, so I feel comfortable backing him here against a Twins lineup that has failed to score an early run in five straight games and has a below-average rate overall this season of 26.3% (15-for-57).
Bailey Ober is also on my undervalued radar. The 6-foot-7 righty has posted just a 4-3 NRFI record this season, but he’s 30-8 overall and 25-5 at home since 2019, so I think there is room for upside. Speaking of upside, Ober’s stuff is in the 87th percentile of chase rate this season, and he’s allowed just 2 ER or less in five of his seven starts. He’s also coming off a season-high 7 strikeout game against the Blue Jays, who have one of the lowest K-rates against RHP this season.
Here’s how each pitcher has fared against the projected top of each lineup:
Aaron Civale vs:
Jorge Polanco (3-for-15, HR)
Alex Kirilloff (3-for-5)
Byron Buxton (3-for-13, 2 HR)
Bailey Ober vs:
Steven Kwan (0-for-6)
Amed Rosario (1-for-10)
Jose Ramirez (3-for-8)
Bet: No Run First Inning (-115)
Baltimore Orioles at San Francisco Giants
I’m always intrigued by the NRFI when a freshly minted interleague series begins. The Orioles haven't played in San Francisco since 2016, so it's highly likely many of their young hitters have never stepped foot inside Oracle Park before, which is a very quirky ballpark to hit in. I also really like that side of the matchup against Logan Webb, who is 8-3 overall to the NRFI this season (4-1 at home) and has an xFIP lower than his actual FIP in the first inning, which means he’s gotten a little unlucky. Besides 7 PAs against Adam Frazier, Webb has not faced anyone in the Baltimore lineup.
Dean Kremer scares me a bit. The young righty has posted just a 13-11 NRFI record on the road since being called up in 2020. However, I’m seeing some encouraging signs lately. Kremer actually has a lower ERA on the road this season (4.15) than at home (4.91), and his ERA in May was over four runs lower than what he posted in April (6.67 to 2.45). The Giants' offense hasn’t been potent in the bottom of the 1st this season with just a 27.5% scoring rate (8-for-29), well below the MLB average of 34% for home teams. Besides 5 PAs from Mitch Haniger, San Fran's lineup is getting their first look at Kremer.
Here’s how the starting pitchers have fared against the projected top of each lineup:
Dean Kremer vs:
LaMonte Wade Jr. (never faced)
J.D. Davis (never faced)
Mike Yastrzemski (never faced)
Logan Webb vs:
Adam Frazier (3-for-7)
Adley Rutschman (never faced)
Anthony Santander (never faced)
Bet: No Run First Inning (-130)
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