The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games on Tuesday, October 3, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better-rated bullpen teams that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or are -190 or higher and have a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment
(System Matches): TAMPA BAY, PHILADELPHIA, MINNESOTA, MILWAUKEE
* Many of the bullpen systems didn’t qualify today (check back tomorrow)
Trends and Systems for the MLB Postseason
The MLB postseason is a 12-team tournament made up of four rounds, with each round being played as a series with progressively more games the deeper you get. Perhaps unlike any other sport, because of the huge 162-game regular season schedule, the stakes of each and every MLB postseason game are enhanced tremendously, and as such, some different or additional handicapping strategies should be employed.
With that in mind, one of the key factors in getting ready for these games is to know the history and the trends/systems that have developed in recent years. Let’s dig into the key betting results from recent MLB playoff seasons to see if we can’t uncover nuggets that will help make these playoffs profitable.
Overall MLB Postseason Trends
Series wins status
HOME FIELD has proven advantageous in series’ that are even, as hosts in this situation have gone 70-48 SU (6.25 units, ROI: 5.3%) and 64-54 on run lines (19.45 units, ROI: 16.5%) since 2015.
System Matches: TAMPA BAY, PHILADELPHIA, MINNESOTA, MILWAUKEE
Stats from last game trends
Teams that are favored in an MLB postseason game after having lost the last outing while scoring two runs or fewer are just 38-40 SU (-18.05 units, ROI: -23.1%) and 27-51 on run lines (-14.55 units, ROI: -18.7%) since 2012.
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA
Trends based upon regular season records
In the last 94 MLB playoff games matching teams with 7+ regular season win differential between them, the supposed better team is just 46-48 SU (-19.3 units, ROI: -20.5%) since 2019.
System Matches: FADE TAMPA BAY, FADE MILWAUKEE
In the last three playoff seasons following a full regular season (excluding 2020), MLB teams that won less than 90 games are on a surge of 28-20 SU (13.2 units, ROI: 27.5%) and 33-15 on run lines (14.8 units, ROI: 30.8%) in playoff games.
System Matches: TORONTO, MINNESOTA, ARIZONA, MIAMI
Totals angles
The last two MLB postseasons have been amazing for OVER bettors, as although the outright record on totals is split 37-37, OVER’s have produced a return of +21.4 units, an ROI of 28.9%. Total vigs have been heavily shaded towards UNDERS. In particular, games with totals set at 7.5 or higher have gone OVER at a 25-18 rate, +15.5 units for an ROI of 36.0%.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in all 4 games
Wild Card Round Angles
- 2022 was the first season in which the wild card round expanded to a 3-game series
Wild Card hosts priced at -135 or higher are on a 17-10 SU (1.05 units, ROI: 3.9%) and 15-12 (6.55 units, ROI: 24.3%) surge since 2013.
System Matches: TAMPA BAY, PHILADELPHIA, MILWAUKEE
Wild Card hosts priced at less than -135 favorites or as underdogs have struggled to the tune of a 5-11 SU (-6.25 units, ROI: -39.1%) & 4-12 on run lines (-11.5 units, ROI: -71.9%) record since 2013.
System Matches: FADE MINNESOTA
Wild Card totals have gone 24-15 UNDER since 2015, with UNDER bettors gaining a return of 7.4 units, or an ROI of 19%.
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in all four games
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1434-1339 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -171.07 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.1%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches: FADE PHILADELPHIA, FADE TAMPA BAY
ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1282-1683 (43.2%) for -175.16 units and an R.O.I. of -5.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches: FADE TEXAS, FADE ARIZONA, FADE MIAMI
HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2517 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and R.O.I. of -6.6%.
System Matches: FADE PHILADELPHIA, FADE TAMPA BAY
Watch for HOME TEAMS that didn’t record an extra-base hit
HOME TEAMS that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 410-340 (54.7%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +28.42 units, for a R.O.I. of 3.8%.
System Matches: MINNESOTA
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 127-105 run (+46.48 units, ROI: 20%).
System Matches: ARIZONA
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 98-98 (+15.62 units, ROI: 8%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: ARIZONA
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today's UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TEXAS +130 (+19 difference), TORONTO -105 (+17 difference)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
MLB Top Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(943) TEXAS (90-72) at (944) TAMPA BAY (99-63)
Trend: Texas slight OVER vs. AL East/Central (35-26 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Texas led regular season series (4-2 record)
System Match: TEXAS
Trend: Texas (as an organization) is 0-6 in the last six playoff games
System Match: FADE TEXAS
Trend: Tampa Bay good against LH starters (24-11, +8.98 units)
System Match: TAMPA BAY
Trend: Tampa Bay trending OVER at HOME (51-29 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Tampa Bay has lost five straight playoff games over two years
System Match: FADE TAMPA BAY
(945) MIAMI (84-78) at (946) PHILADELPHIA (90-72)
Trend: Miami more UNDER on the ROAD (35-44 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Miami won regular season series (7-6 record, 4-2 on the ROAD)
System Match: MIAMI
Trend: Miami not used to playoffs (only one appearance in the last 20 years)
System Match: FADE MIAMI
Trend: Philadelphia is 0-2 vs. LHP Jesus Luzardo this season
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA
Trend: Philadelphia good record at HOME (49-32)
System Match: PHILADELPHIA
Trend: Philadelphia made it to WS last year (and return many guys)
System Match: PHILADELPHIA
(947) TORONTO (89-73) at (948) MINNESOTA (87-75)
Trend: ROAD team was 4-2 in regular season series
System Match: TORONTO
Trend: Toronto trending UNDER against AL Central/West (24-37 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Toronto is 0-4 in WC games as an organization
System Match: FADE TORONTO
Trend: Minnesota (as an organization) is 2-25 in the last 27 playoff games (-25.6 units)
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA
Trend: Minnesota more OVER against AL East/West (38-25 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Minnesota better record at HOME (47-34)
System Match: MINNESOTA
(949) ARIZONA (84-78) at (950) MILWAUKEE (92-70)
Trend: Arizona trending UNDER at NIGHT (42-51 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Arizona led regular season series (4-2 record)
System Match: ARIZONA
Trend: Arizona lost L3 postseason games at Milwaukee
System Match: FADE ARIZONA
Trend: Milwaukee good vs RH starters (70-44, +19.83 units)
System Match: MILWAUKEE
Trend: Milwaukee trending UNDER at NIGHT (42-51 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Milwaukee on 6-1 UNDER stretch in postseason play
System Match: UNDER
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities
PHILADELPHIA
LETDOWN after series vs. NY METS: 12-16 (42.9%) -8.03 units, ROI: -28.7%
Next betting opportunity: Tuesday 10/3 vs. Miami
System Matches: FADE PHILADELPHIA