VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Sunday, October 1

The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Sunday, October 1, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

 

Better rated bullpen teams for today’s action that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or are -190 or higher and have a winning percentage 19% or higher (System Matches): ATLANTA, LA DODGERS, PHILADELPHIA, MILWAUKEE, CINCINNATI, BALTIMORE, OAKLAND, TAMPA BAY, DETROIT, SEATTLE, NY YANKEES, HOUSTON, SAN DIEGO, MINNESOTA

 

My most recent bullpen ratings discovery has found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent are now 140-56 for +16.73 units as of Monday 9/25. Some big favorites are worth back consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The R.O.I. on this angle for the season has fallen recently but remains at +8.5%.

System Matches: ATLANTA 

 

In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there’s been an opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team is less than 20, these big favorites have gone just 75-71 for -84.81 units! This angle was 4-4 last week and again lost –5.78 units! This situation is rare but should be taken advantage of when it arises. The R.O.I. on this amazing angle for the season has steadied and is now at -58.1%! By fading these teams, a season-long backer of this system would currently be around +70 units of profit!

System Matches: FADE ATLANTA

 

A frequent and profitable system arises when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings is playing as an underdog (or pick em’). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season are now 328-334 for +70.05 units. The R.O.I. of this angle remains a healthy 10.6%.

System Matches: MILWAUKEE, OAKLAND, TAMPA BAY 

 

I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that are looking to extend winning streaks has been a strong strategy. On 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup are now 239-243 for -22.71 units, a R.O.I. of -4.71%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks now have a record of 99-117 for -14.61 units. The R.O.I. on that system has fallen to -6.8%. Both of these records took big hits last week with Kansas City winning six straight games and Texas going on a run of its own.

System Matches: 2-games – FADE NY METS

3-games – FADE MIAMI

 

In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend 3-game winning streaks, I have tracked that these teams have gone 231-160 for +15.43 units, a respectable R.O.I. of 3.9%.

System Matches: HOUSTON, SAN DIEGO

 

- Updating the results since 9/18, better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have now gone 116-79 for +19.02 units. The R.O.I. for the season is at 9.8% after the past seven days. There weren’t many plays last week, but these teams were 4-1 for +3.27 units.

System Matches: PHILADELPHIA

 

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing 8 different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

 

Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of 7-runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 310-286 (52%) for +37.73 units of profit. This represents a R.O.I. of 6.3%.

System Matches: COLORADO

 

Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored 9 runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1434-1339 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -171.07 units. This represents a R.O.I. of -6.1%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.

System Matches: FADE NY METS, FADE CHICAGO CUBS, FADE ST LOUIS, FADE MINNESOTA

 

You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored 2 runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1282-1683 (43.2%) for -175.16 units and a R.O.I. of -5.9% since the start of the 2019 season.

System Matches: FADE BOSTON, FADE HOUSTON, FADE LA DODGERS, FADE CLEVELAND

 

Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored 5 runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2517 (53.5%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and a R.O.I. of -6.6%.

System Matches: FADE BALTIMORE, FADE TORONTO, FADE ATLANTA, FADE NY METS, FADE MILWAUKEE, FADE ST LOUIS, FADE COLORADO, FADE DETROIT

 

MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had 4 hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 812-691 (54%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +28.25 units for backers and a R.O.I. of 1.9%.

System Matches: LA ANGELS

 

HOME TEAMS that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 410-339 (54.7%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +29.42 units, for a R.O.I. of 3.9%. 

System Matches: ARIZONA

 

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

 

NO STREAK PLAYS TODAY

 

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

 

System Matches: OAKLAND (+22), ARIZONA (+45)

 

System Matches: ATLANTA (+16), LA DODGERS (+36), PHILADELPHIA (+45), CINCINNATI (+17), BALTIMORE (+41), DETROIT (+18), SAN DIEGO (+38), MINNESOTA (+51)

 

System Matches: LA DODGERS-SAN FRANCISCO OVER 8 (+1.0), OAKLAND-LA ANGELS OVER 8 (+0.7), CLEVELAND-DETROIT OVER 7.5 (+0.6), TEXAS-SEATTLE OVER 7.5 (+0.5)

 

System Matches: HOUSTON-ARIZONA UNDER 9.5 (-1.0), MINNESOTA-COLORADO UNDER 12.5 (-1.4)

 

The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.

 

Trend: Washington better on the ROAD (36-44, +18.02 units)

System Match: WASHINGTON

Trend: Washington better during the DAY (32-32, +18.24 units)

System Match: WASHINGTON

Trend: Atlanta leads season series (8-4 record)

System Match: ATLANTA

Trend: Atlanta trending OVER at HOME (47-32 O/U)

System Match: OVER

 

Trend: LAD trending OVER on the ROAD (50-26 O/U)

System Match: OVER

Trend: LAD not as good during the DAY (24-21, -7.58 units)

System Match: FADE LA DODGERS

Trend: San Francisco trending UNDER at HOME (30-48 O/U)

System Match: UNDER

Trend: San Francisco good at HOME (45-35 record)

System Match: SAN FRANCISCO

 

Trend: Miami leads season series (5-1)

System Match: MIAMI

Trend: Miami trending UNDER against NL Central/West (24-38 O/U)

System Match: UNDER

Trend: Pittsburgh trending OVER at HOME (45-30 O/U)

System Match: OVER

 

Trend: Philadelphia has nothing to play for (clinched first wild card)

System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA

Trend: Philadelphia good during the DAY (37-25, +4.90 units)

System Match: PHILADELPHIA

Trend: NYM trending UNDER at HOME (27-46 O/U)

System Match: UNDER

Trend: NYM better at HOME (42-37 record)

System Match: NY METS

 

Trend: Chicago just got eliminated yesterday

System Match: FADE CHICAGO CUBS

Trend: Chicago trending OVER in division (28-20 O/U)

System Match: OVER

Trend: Milwaukee not good against LH starters (21-26, -12.43 units)

System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE

Trend: Milwaukee trending UNDER against LH starters (17-27 O/U)

System Match: UNDER

 

Trend: Cincinnati just got eliminated yesterday

System Match: FADE CINCINNATI

Trend: Cincinnati good on the ROAD (44-36, +16.77 units)

System Match: CINCINNATI

Trend: St Louis better during the DAY (28-25 record)

System Match: ST LOUIS

Trend: St Louis slight OVER at HOME (42-33 O/U)

System Match: OVER

 

Trend: Boston trending OVER on the ROAD (42-36 O/U)

System Match: OVER

Trend: Boston not great during the DAY (28-32, -8.44 units)

System Match: FADE BOSTON

Trend: Baltimore good against RH starters (65-43, +21.00 units)

System Match: BALTIMORE

Trend: Baltimore already clinched number one seed

System Match: FADE BALTIMORE

 

Trend: Oakland trending UNDER in division (21-30 O/U)

System Match: UNDER

Trend: Oakland bad during the DAY (14-51, -29.33 units)

System Match: FADE OAKLAND

Trend: LAA bad at HOME (37-43, -17.32 units)

System Match: FADE LA ANGELS

Trend: LAA slightly better during the DAY (26-25, +1.36 units)

System Match: LA ANGELS

 

Trend: Tampa Bay good against RH starters (74-52 record)

System Match: TAMPA BAY

Trend: Tampa Bay trending UNDER on the ROAD (35k-39 O/U)

System Match: UNDER

Trend: Toronto good during the DAY (39-26, +2.50 units)

System Match: TORONTO

Trend: Toronto good record vs RH starters (69-58)

System Match: TORONTO

 

Trend: Cleveland bad against LH starters (24-34, -19.31 units)

System Match: FADE CLEVELAND

Trend: Detroit trending OVER at HOME (43-33 O/U)

System Match: OVER

Trend: Detroit better during the DAY (37-34, +9.54 units)

System Match: DETROIT

 

Trend: Texas dominating season series (9-3 record)

System Match: TEXAS

Trend: Texas good during the DAY (35-23, +4.31 units)

System Match: TEXAS

Trend: Seattle slight UNDER during the DAY (24-29 O/U)

System Match: UNDER

Trend: Seattle good record at HOME (44-36)

System Match: SEATTLE

 

Trend: NYY better during the DAY (30-26 record)

System Match: NY YANKEES

Trend: NYY trending UNDER on the ROAD (33-43 O/U)

System Match: UNDER

Trend: Kansas City trending OVER at HOME (42-34 O/U)

System Match: OVER

 

Trend: Houston better on the ROAD (50-30, +15.15 units)

System Match: HOUSTON

Trend: Houston good vs NL teams (27-18 record)

System Match: HOUSTON

Trend: Arizona more UNDER at HOME (32-43 O/U)

System Match: UNDER

 

Trend: San Diego bad against RH starters (53-61, -30.10 units)

System Match: FADE SAN DIEGO

Trend: San Diego good against AL teams (27-18, +2.48 units)

System Match: SAN DIEGO

Trend: Chicago not good at HOME (31-49, -19.43 units)

System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX

Trend: Chicago slight UNDER during the DAY (27-33 O/U)

System Match: UNDER

 

Trend: Minnesota slight UNDER against NL teams (19-24 O/U)

System Match: UNDER

Trend: Colorado trending UNDER during the DAY (27-34 O/U)

System Match: UNDER

Trend: Colorado not great record against AL teams (17-28, -3.41 units)

System Match: FADE COLORADO

 

The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled 20 MLB second half series’ with notable head-to-head trends

 

NO HEAD-TO-HEAD PLAYS TODAY

 

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown angles

The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities

 

NO POST-RIVALRY SERIES PLAYS TODAY