VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Monday, August 14
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, August 14, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better-rated bullpen teams for today’s action that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher: PITTSBURGH, TEXAS, SEATTLE, HOUSTON, NY YANKEES, BALTIMORE, SAN FRANCISCO
AVOID/FADE all better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher
In games this season through Sunday 8/13 in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher, that team now owns a 213-120 record, but for -62.52 units. This is an R.O.I. of -18.8%! In my opinion, bullpens prove to be the difference in games that are priced more competitively.
System Matches: FADE ARIZONA, FADE ST LOUIS
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle
When the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team is less than 20, these big favorites have gone just 48-54 for -72.94 units! This angle was 3-5 last week and lost -7.12 units! This situation is rare but should be taken advantage of when it arises. The R.O.I. on this amazing angle for the season has steadied and is now at -71.5%!
System Match: FADE ST LOUIS
Better bullpen underdog teams have been solid
A frequent and profitable system arises when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings is playing as an underdog (or pick ‘em). After a rare off week of 5-9 (-2.84 units) performance over the last week, moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season are now 269-269 for +64.52 units. The R.O.I. of this angle remains a healthy 12%!
System Matches: PITTSBURGH, NY YANKEES, BALTIMORE, SAN FRANCISCO
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup are now 182-183 for -35.48 units, an R.O.I. of -9.7%. After a 0-3 result (-3.18 units), worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks now have a record of 69-87 for -20.69 units. The R.O.I. on that system continues to produce at -13.3%.
System Match: 2-game – FADE MIAMI
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Updating the results since 8/7 of when on two-game losing streaks, the teams with better SM bullpen ratings in a matchup have gone 184-137 for +12.86 units. Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks had a big 6-1 week and have now gone 90-57 for +23.23 units. The R.O.I. for the season jumped back up to 15.8% after that surge this past seven days.
System Matches: 2-game – ARIZONA, BALTIMORE
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1282-1675 (43.4%) for -165.79 units and an R.O.I. of -5.6% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches: FADE LA ANGELS, FADE HOUSTON, FADE TAMPA BAY
HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2517 (53.5%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and R.O.I. of -6.6%.
System Matches: FADE NY METS, FADE MIAMI, FADE ATLANTA, FADE ST LOUIS
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY (next one tomorrow, 8/15)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: COLORADO (+35), LA ANGELS (+19), OAKLAND (+16)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: SEATTLE (+49)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: HOUSTON-MIAMI OVER 7.5 (+0.7), BALTIMORE-SAN DIEGO OVER 8 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: OAKLAND-ST LOUIS UNDER 9 (-0.7)
MLB Top Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.>>See situational records for each team.
(901) PITTSBURGH (53-65) at (902) NEW YORK-NL (53-65)
Trend: Pittsburgh trending OVER in NIGHT games (40-25 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Pittsburgh solid bet vs NL West/East (25-23, +10.09 units)
System Match: PITTSBURGH
Trend: Pittsburgh best OVER team in MLB as ML underdog (47-35-4, +8.50 units)
System Match: OVER
Trend: NYM trending UNDER as ML favorite (32-41-3 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: NYM not good against NL Central/West (22-28, -15.35 units)
System Match: FADE NY METS
Trend: NYM UNDER at HOME (18-35 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(903) ARIZONA (59-59) at (904) COLORADO (45-73)
Trend: Arizona good record against Colorado this year (6-1)
System Match: ARIZONA
Trend: Arizona trending UNDER (22-33 O/U as ML favorite, 29-38 O/U in NIGHT games)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Colorado bad against NL West (7-25, -13.95 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO
Trend: Colorado not good against RH starters (27-52, -15.20 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO
(905) LOS ANGELES-AL (59-60) at (906) TEXAS (70-48)
Trend: LAA trending OVER in divisional games (21-12 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: LAA trending OVER as ML underdog (28-18-6 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Texas good against LH starters (22-11, +7.25 units)
System Match: TEXAS
Trend: Texas good as ML favorite (51-28, +7.50 units)
System Match: TEXAS
Trend: Texas trending OVER in HOME games (33-23 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(907) SEATTLE (63-54) at (908) KANSAS CITY (38-81)
Trend: Seattle trending OVER in AL East/Central games (28-20 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Seattle not great bet as ML favorite (47-39, -10.22 units)
System Match: FADE SEATTLE
Trend: Kansas City bad at NIGHT (21-53, -23.31 units)
System Match: FADE KANSAS CITY
Trend: Kansas City not good against AL East/West (10-29, -14.36 units)
System Match: FADE KANSAS CITY
(909) HOUSTON (68-51) at (910) MIAMI (62-57)
Trend: Houston good on the ROAD (35-25, +7.43 units)
System Match: HOUSTON
Trend: Miami good against AL teams (25-16, +11.38 units)
System Match: MIAMI
Trend: Miami not as good as ML underdog (20-32, -5.60 units)
System Match: FADE MIAMI
Trend: Miami non-divisional games trending UNDER (35-49 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Miami trending UNDER against LH starters (9-19 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(911) NEW YORK-AL (60-58) at (912) ATLANTA (75-42)
Trend: NYY not good at NIGHT (33-42, -15.72 units)
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES
Trend: NYY trending UNDER at NIGHT (30-43 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Atlanta not as good against AL teams (23-20, -10.18 units)
System Match: FADE ATLANTA
Trend: Atlanta trending OVER multiple ways (34-22 O/U at HOME, 43-31 O/U at NIGHT)
System Match: OVER
(913) OAKLAND (33-85) at (914) ST LOUIS (52-66)
Trend: Oakland bad as ML underdog (33-81, -25.35 units)
System Match: FADE OAKLAND
Trend: Oakland decent bet at NIGHT (24-44, -3.62 units)
System Match: OAKLAND
Trend: St Louis trending OVER at HOME (31-24 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: St Louis bad at NIGHT (29-46, -27.17 units)
System Match: FADE ST LOUIS
Trend: St Louis worst in MLB as ML favorite (32-43, -31.67 units)
System Match: FADE ST LOUIS
(915) BALTIMORE (73-45) at (916) SAN DIEGO (56-62)
Trend: Baltimore best in MLB as ML underdog (30-22, +15.40 units)
System Match: BALTIMORE
Trend: San Diego pretty good against AL teams (19-13 record)
System Match: SAN DIEGO
Trend: San Diego trending UNDER against AL (9-21 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: San Diego not good against RH starters (34-45, -29.67 units)
System Match: FADE SAN DIEGO
(917) TAMPA BAY (71-49) at (918) SAN FRANCISCO (63-55)
Trend: Tampa Bay trending UNDER on the ROAD (23-30 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: San Francisco pretty good as ML underdog (20-17, +7.20 units)
System Match: SAN FRANCISCO
Trend: San Francisco better at NIGHT (38-28, +5.52 units)
System Match: SAN FRANCISCO
Trend: San Francisco trending UNDER at NIGHT (25-39 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Top Head-To-Head Series Trends
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled 20 MLB second-half series with notable head-to-head trends.
Series #12: Pittsburgh at NY Mets, Mon 8/14-Wed 8/16
Trend: FAVORITES are 9-0 (100%, +9 units) in the last nine games between Pittsburgh and NY Mets
The R.O.I. on this trend is 100%.
System Match: NY METS
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
ATLANTA
LETDOWN after series vs. NY METS: 10-16 (38.5%) -9.72 units, ROI: -37.4%
Next betting opportunity: Monday 8/14 vs. NY Yankees
System Match: FADE ATLANTA
