Tuley's Takes: Wednesday Best Bet in MLB, plus updates on USFL playoff picks for weekend

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

June 21, 2023 04:43 AM


Tuesday Best Bet Results

Tuesday was a productive day in the Tuley’s Takes home office.

For starters, after finishing Monday night’s ATS Report and Tuesday’s Best Bets column and getting a few hours of sleep, I spent the rest of the morning and early afternoon finishing up my contributions to VSiN’s NFL Betting Guide that’s coming out next Thursday, June 29 (frankly, even though I haven’t mentioned it before, I was spending pretty much every spare hour the past week researching, handicapping and writing).

Then I relaxed by going to Costco for some household shopping and then for a dip in our pool (Tuley Swim) while sweating out my lone Best Bet of the day on the Phillies First 5 Innings +130 vs. the Braves.

I was leery about making the play as the Phillies were facing Atlanta ace Spencer Strider, but I felt he was overpriced against Ranger Suarez. We got the 5 shutout innings we needed from Suarez, and then the Phillies finally strung together 3 singles off Strider by Brandon Marsh, Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos to push across a run in the bottom of the 5th to get us the cash!

The 1-0 day got me back to .500 in June at 20-20-7, and since several of my wins have been at plus-money (and I don’t need to hit 52.38% to make a profit), I’m ahead $202.28, according to the VSiN Pro Picks page, after finishing at +15.6 units in May.

Let’s look for more plays on Wednesday with 2 more in MLB, plus update our USFL picks/leans for this weekend.


MLB Wednesday Best Bets

Braves First 5 Innings +105 at Phillies: OK, I can already hear what some of you are saying (especially newbies who’ve only recently started following our daily plays): “Hey, Tuley, you cashed on the Phillies yesterday so why are you fading them today?” I believe this a prime example of what I’ve said for years and I’m sure you’ve heard plenty of people say on VSiN that “we’re betting numbers, not teams.” Too many bettors want to bet on their favorite team or a team they’ve fallen in love with for one reason or another. They keep betting those teams when we’re supposed to be looking for the betting value whether it’s in money-line sports like MLB or the NHL or the point-spread sports like NFL and NBA. This is also an “anti-swagger” play against the Phillies as their 6-game winning streak was snapped by the Braves on Tuesday. We also don’t mind fading Aaron Nola (6-5, 4.66 ERA) with the Braves starting AJ Smith-Shawver (1-0, 2.03 ERA). Note: I’m sticking with this 1 Best Bet on Wednesday, but for those readers looking for more plays, I was also considering the Orioles/Tyler Wells First 5 Innings +120 at the Rays and Rangers/Martin Perez First 5 -110 at the White Sox.

USFL playoff Best Bet for Saturday

Pittsburgh Maulers-Michigan Panthers Under 39: We locked in this play in Tuesday's edition of this column. As we previously discussed on “The Greg Peterson Experience” on Sunday night (and again on Monday night), my handicap of this game has the Maulers -2 and an Over/Under of 37 points. I certainly didn’t expect the books to set it any higher with the Maulers averaging just 17.7 points per game and the Panthers at 17.1, but they did. While I was able to bet it myself at Under 42.5, there’s still value at the 39 as of Tuesday morning. Wednesday update: Over/Under is down to 38.5 at a lot of books, so shop around. With the point spread flipping to the Maulers being the underdog, I might also bet that but waiting to see where the line goes. Wednesday update: the line has flipped back to the Maulers being favored, so I’m passing on the side. I’m also waiting to decide on the New Orleans Breakers-Birmingham Stallions game (I have it at Stallions -2 and Over/Under 45, which is right where the lines are as of early Tuesday). Wednesday update: the line is now back up to 3 at some books, but I’m waiting to see if I can get more points with the Breakers as I’m hoping the public drives up the line on the defending champion Stallions and we can get more than a field goal.


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