Tuley's Takes: Tuesday Best Bet in MLB, plus early USFL playoff picks for this weekend

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

June 20, 2023 06:48 AM


Monday Best Bet Results

Monday was supposed to be a relatively uneventful sports betting day as my two posted Best Bets in these columns weren’t until later in the afternoon (4 and 5 p.m. PT here in the Tuley’s Takes home office).

But if you caught my weekly appearance Sunday night on VSiN’s “The Greg Peterson Experience” or read the Monday version of this column, you knew I gave out my early leans on the upcoming weekend’s USFL playoff games and was waiting for the books to post opening lines. I said my lines for the first semifinal was Pittsburgh Maulers -2 vs. the Michigan Panthers with an Over/Under of 37. I also said I really liked the Under but was fearful that oddsmakers would be shading it too low (note: my line on the other semifinal was Birmingham Stallions -2 vs. the New Orleans Breakers with a total of 45 points).

Fortunately, on Monday morning, one of our regular VSiN readers (@DamnXavier82 on Twitter) Tweeted at me: “odds are posted and the Under 38.5 looks like a best bet on the board at the moment. Agreed?” along with a screen shot of an excerpt from my column. I checked my app and was thrilled to find Maulers-Panthers Under 42.5 at Circa Sports. I bet it at 10:44 a.m. PT and they moved it to 39.5.

Now, I joked on “The Greg Peterson Experience” last night (yes, they had me on two nights in a row) that Circa must have respected my action to move the line so aggressively, but mine wasn’t a limit wager so I assume there were others betting it at the same time, and hopefully some were our readers.

As I write this late Monday night/early Tuesday morning, the Maulers-Panthers Over/Under is at 39 at most books (down to 38.5 at Circa), so I’m locking that in below and on the VSiN Pro Picks page, though hopefully my heads-up helped many of you get better numbers.

As for my plays that took place on Monday, I won my Best Bet on the Diamondbacks First 5 Innings +110 at the Brewers Arizona jumped out to a 6-0 lead in the top of the first and coasted to a 7-1 lead after 5 innings to easily cash our top play, plus went on to win 9-1 for those who plays my picks on the full-game money line.

The 1-1 day showed a slight profit of $10 based on $100 flat bets, according to the aforementioned VSiN Pro Picks page. We’re still below .500 in June at 19-20-7, but thanks to our plus-money dogs we’re still showing an overall profit of $72.28 after finishing at +15.6 units in May.

Let’s look for more plays on Tuesday with 2 more in MLB, plus that USFL Under.


MLB Tuesday Best Bets

Phillies First 5 Innings +130 vs. Braves: I was all set to fade the Giants as an “anti-swagger” play if their 7-game winning streak was snapped last night, but then they rallied to beat the Padres 7-4 in 10 innings to make me wait. That leaves me with just this 1 play on Tuesday. I’m never thrilled going against Spencer Strider (7-2, 4.12 ERA), but we’ve had success fading him, plus we’ve had success with Philly’s Ranger Suarez (1-2, 3.82 ERA) and feel this line is overpriced for this matchup with both teams playing well and both on 6-game winning streaks coming into this series.

USFL playoff Best Bet for Saturday

Pittsburgh Maulers-Michigan Panthers Under 39: As we previously discussed on “The Greg Peterson Experience” on Sunday night (and again on Monday night), my handicap of this game has the Maulers -2 and an Over/Under of 37 points. I certainly didn’t expect the books to set it any higher with the Maulers averaging just 17.7 points per game and the Panthers at 17.1, but they did. While I was able to bet it myself at Under 42.5, there’s still value at the 39 as of Tuesday morning. With the line flipping to the Maulers being the underdog, I might also bet that but waiting to see where the line goes. I’m also waiting to decide on the New Orleans Breakers-Birmingham Stallions game (I have it at Stallions -2 and Over/Under 45, which is right where the lines are as of early Tuesday).

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A Numbers Game: Be careful betting baseball games right now, if they don’t involve teams still trying to make the playoffs. Teams that have clinched or teams that are completely out of it will be approaching games far differently. View more tips.

Ian Cameron: USC at Colorado - OVER (73.5). View more picks.