Saturday Best Bets
Welcome to our “Tuley’s Takes” Best Bets column for Saturday.
In case you missed it Wednesday, we’ve started splitting our daily column (that has been running for the past 19 months since September 2021) into two separate pieces: there’s a FREE article where I recap the betting action from the night before and update league-wide ATS stats in the various sports, and then this one where I look for the best betting opportunities on today’s wagering menu.
Links to both articles should be found on the VSiN.com home page, though I advise my regular readers to also bookmark my dedicated page at https://vsin.com/news/dave-tuley-columns/.
Friday Best Bet Results
Friday was another winning day overall in the Tuley’s Takes home office as we won our Best Bet of the day on the Rockies +1.5 +115 at the Phillies. They ended up losing 4-3, but covered on the +1.5 run line, so we made the right call in making that our Best Bet over the full-game money line (note: the Rockies also cashed around +250 on the First 5 Inning wager as they jumped out to a 3-0 lead on Aaron Nola and led 3-2 after 5 innings).
Our secondary play on the Wild +130 vs. the Bruins didn’t fare as well as the Bruins scored in the first 2:26 of the game and coasted to a 4-2 victory. What I should have done was play back the Wild after losing on them on Wednesday as they bounced back to beat the Stars 5-1 and take a 2-1 series lead.
We mostly felt good about passing in the NBA as the Timberwolves came up short, though we wish we had jumped on the Hawks, who beat the Celtics outright as 5.5-point home dogs. The “zig-zag theory” went 2-1 ATS (with the Knicks as short home faves also covering after losing their prior game) to improve to 7-6-1 ATS for those following those plays.
Without further ado, let’s get to Saturday’s busy sports schedule.
MLB Saturday Best Bet
A’s +1.5 +105 at Rangers: This is a “swagger play” on the A’s as they snapped a 7-game losing streak on Friday against the Rangers. Let’s use the full-game run line again like we did with the Rockies on Friday in a similar spot just in case they come up just short. I didn’t see any stories to this effect, but I have to think the A’s also received a boost to morale with the team’s announcement of acquiring land to build a new stadium in Las Vegas (even if many of the current players might not still be around when the stadium opens in 2027).
NHL Saturday Best Bet
Maple Leafs-Lightning 1P Over 1.5 -140 / Avalanche-Kraken 1P Over 1.5 -125 (parlay pays +209): If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it! As we’ve been writing all week, there are alternating days in the NHL playoffs with a bunch of 1P Under teams and then these two 1P Over matchups as we hit +208 parlays on both Tuesday and Thursday, so we’re back again as we know that the play will probably be tightening up soon and we might be backing off of these plays as the playoff pressure ramps up as we get deeper into these series.
NBA Saturday Best Bet
Clippers +7.5 vs. Suns: Kawhi Leonard is out again for the Clippers, but the rest of the team picked up the slack enough to cover vs, the inflated closing line of +7.5 in their 129-124 loss vs. the Suns in Game 3 on Thursday night. I don’t know if Norman Powell can score 42 points again for the Clippers, but I’m counting on Russell Westbrook (30 points on Thursday) to keep them in the game against a Suns team that could again be content to grind out another win and take control of the series.
XFL Week 10 Best Bets
Saturday: Orlando Guardians +9.5 at St. Louis Battlehawks
Sunday: Vegas Vipers +8.5 at Seattle Sea Dragons
We gave these plays on “The Greg Peterson Experience” as both are fades of the Battlehawks, who need to win to clinch an XFL playoff spot, and the Sea Dragons, who need to win in case the Battlehawks fall. In both cases, I feel the lines are inflated too high due to those teams being in “must-win” situations, plus the Guardians and Vipers are much improved from earlier in the season and look like they enjoy playing spoiler down the stretch (Orlando had covered 3 straight before pushing as 2-point dogs in 25-23 loss at San Antonio on Saturday and the Vipers are also playing better since switching to Jalan McClendon at QB and took Houston to the final gun on Saturday). Note: After waiting to officially post these on the VSiN PRO picks page as we’ve waiting to see how high the lines would get bet, we’re now locking these in as they appear to have peaked at Guardians +9.5 and Vipers +8.5 (though it wouldn’t hurt to keep monitoring these just in case there is late steam).
