Tuley's Takes: Monday Best Bets in MLB, plus early USFL semifinal leans for next weekend

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

June 19, 2023 12:39 AM


Sunday Best Bet Results

Sunday was a losing day for yours truly, Dave Tuley, but it was still a great Father’s Day.

I always get sentimental during the final round of the U.S. Open as it’s always played on Father’s Day – and after I moved away I would always call my dad because I knew he would be home watching the action and we’d chit-chat while watching a few holes. When I was a kid, our family loved making crepes, though we called them “roll’em pancakes or “rolling pancakes” (there’s some debate with my older siblings). Anyway, my own kids made them for me and then took me for dinner to my favorite pizza place in Las Vegas (Rosati’s, a Chicago-style pizzeria), so it was a great day indeed in my book.

As for my actual bets in the sportsbooks, I pushed my Best Bet on the Cardinals First 5 Innings +100 at the Mets. I felt great about making it my top play as the Cardinals jumped out to a 2-0 lead in the bottom of the 1st, then led 5-1 after the top of the 2nd and 6-4 after the top of the 3rd. They still led 7-5 heading to the bottom of the 5th, but the Mets scored twice for a push at 7-7. The good news is the Cardinals did go on to win 8-7 for those who bet my plays on the full-game money line.

I lost my secondary MLB play on the Royals First 5 Innings +100 vs. the Angels despite KC also leading 2-1 heading to the 5th inning before the Angels scored 3 in the top of the 5th to beat us 4-2. And then we lost on the Philadelphia Stars pick-’em vs. the Michigan Panthers. The Stars closed -3, so we thought we had closing line value, and again it looked like we had the right side as they were leading 20-6 at halftime, but the Panthers rallied to win 23-20.

Our 0-2-1 mark on the day dropped us to 7-6-3 and a profit of +$192.73 on $100 flat bets the last 7 days, according to the VSiN Pro Picks page. We’ve also dropped back below .500 in June at 18-19-7, but thanks to our plus-money dogs we’re still showing an overall profit of $62.28 after finishing at +15.6 units in May.

Let’s look for more plays on Monday with 2 MLB First 5 underdog plays on the 10-game card, plus my early thoughts on the USFL playoffs as we’re still 6-1 ATS in that league despite losing on the Stars on Sunday.


MLB Monday Best Bets

Diamondbacks First 5 Innings +110 at Brewers: As discussed on my regular Sunday night appearance on VSiN’s “The Greg Peterson Experience” (11:15 p.m. ET/8:15 p.m. PT, or 15 minutes into the archive), I like this play the best on Monday as I trust the Diamondbacks’ offense more as well as liking Arizona’s Merrill Kelly (8-3, 3.04 ERA) more than Corbin Burnes (5-4, 3.44 ERA).

Pirates First 5 Innings +100 vs. Cubs: This a “mini-anti-swagger” play against the Cubs as they just had their 5-game winning streak snapped on Sunday in a 6-3 loss to the Orioles. I’m a little leery of backing the Pirates right now (another reason why I like the D-backs play better) as they’re on a 6-game skid of their own, including being swept by the Cubs last week in Pittsburgh, but this is still a play against Chicago and I’m OK with Osvaldo Bio (0-0, 2.25 ERA) in his second start (he also faced the Cubs last week, allowing just 1 run in 4 innings with 6 K’s.

USFL early playoff leans

To be determined: As we also discussed on “The Greg Peterson Experience,” next weekend’s USFL semifinals were still off the betting boards on Sunday night. However, I gave my lines and we can use those to compare to the side and total when they come out. I have the Pittsburgh Maulers -2 vs. the Michigan Panthers with an Over/Under of 37 points. I would lean to the Under, though I don’t expect that the oddsmakers will set this too high with both offenses averaging less than 18 points a game. I also have the Birmingham Stallions -2 vs. the New Orleans Breakers with Over/Under 45. In this case, I’m hoping the oddsmakers and/or the betting public over-rates the defending champion Stallions and we can get the Breakers at more than a field goal (+3.5, please). We shall see and we’ll have more on these games during the week.


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