Tuley's Takes for Monday: Best Bets in MLB's Home Run Derby

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

July 10, 2023 12:47 AM


Sunday Best Bet Results

Sunday was a varied sports betting day with a little something for everyone with golf, auto racing, WNBA as well as MLB wrapping up the proverbial “first half” of the season (though we’re a little past the half-way point) as we hit the All-Star Break.

Personally, I spent Sunday catching up on stuff around the house – including cleaning/chlorinating the pool – after our week-long San Francisco vacation. I needed to take a refreshing dip after returning to the 106-degree heat!

As for my bets, I lost my supposed Best Bet of the day in the WNBA on the Minnesota Lynx +14 vs. the Las Vegas Aces. I was bummed on Saturday when I missed out on the +15, but still felt I was on the sharp side at +14 as the line closed as low as 11.5. I also felt good as the Lynx were shooting well and mostly keeping with the Aces, but Las Vegas took over in the third quarter and ended up covering easily in a 113-89 rout.

I made that my top play since I’ve been struggling so much with my MLB plays, but I actually went 2-0 with those on Sunday to show an overall profit as the Tigers First 5 Innings +105 vs. Blue Jays cashed as Detroit’s Tarik Skubal didn’t have a no-hit outing but he did allow just 2 hits in 4 innings of shutout ball as the Tigers led 3-0 after 5 innings, and then we also hit with the Nationals First 5 Innings +0.5 runs +105 vs. the Rangers as they led 2-0 after 5 innings. The price did come down by the morning as the First 5 pick-’em line was mostly +105 and +100, but I trust some followers played it anyway.

So, my official plays on the day went 2-1 for +1.1 units to help start chipping away at our losses in July as we’re still 5-12 and -6.55 units, according to the VSiN Pro Picks page. In fact, I even joked on my regular appearance on “The Greg Peterson Experience” (11:15 p.m. ET/ 8:15 p.m. PT Sunday nights, or 15 minutes into the archived version) that I’ve been looking forward to the All-Star Break, but after going 2-0 with my MLB plays on Sunday, I’m not so happy it’s here now!!!

Anyway, I also gave my “takes” on Monday’s Home Run Derby, so that’s why I’m doing this Best Bets column for Monday when I originally thought I would take the night off for the first time since last July. I will skip these Best Bet pieces on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday and resume Friday. The plan is to do my ATS Reports on Monday and Tuesday nights and then take Wednesday and Thursday off before resuming Friday night.


Monday Best Bets on MLB Home Run Derby

Julio Rodriguez +140 vs. Pete Alonso in 1st round, plus +560 to win Home Run Derby: As I discussed on “The Greg Peterson Experience,” my favorite play in Monday’s competition is Rodriguez +140 vs. Alonso in the first round. I know Alonso is the overall favorite and is a two-time champion who obviously excels in this format. In fact, I’ve been betting on him the last few years because of a personal connection. Alonso’s pitcher has been Dave Jauss, the son of longtime Chicago Tribune sportswriter Bill Jauss, who I knew back in the late 1980s and early 1990s when we covered some games together, most notably at my alma mater, Northern Illinois University. Jauss even invited me to a taping of the legendary “The Sportswriters on TV” show that pretty much wrote the template for sports talk radio and TV shows, plus was even copied by ESPN. Anyway, Alonso is using a former coach of his instead, so maybe he won’t groove the pitch as well as Jauss. Also, remember that Rodriguez beat Alonso last year in the semifinals (the only time Alonso has lost in Home Run Derby) and also does well with this format. I believe he’ll also benefit from that experience when he hit 63 homers in the first two rounds but then lost the finale to Juan Soto, so he’s live at +560 to win the whole thing.

Mookie Betts +175 vs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in 1st round: For the most part, I believe these head-to-head matchups are pretty much coin-flips, so value can often be found on the dogs (let’s see if they show overall profit in Monday’s four first-round matchups). This is the other dog I like as Guerrero seems way overpriced. He’s certainly capable of a lot of homers, but Betts is just as likely to get on a roll and pull the upset.

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