Tuley: Wednesday MLB Best Bets 6/28

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

June 28, 2023 04:53 AM


Tuesday Best Bet Results

Tuesday was mostly spent helping proof the VSiN NFL Betting Guide that is coming out on Thursday.

It was a pleasant diversion to keep from thinking about our current sports betting losing streak (4 straight days since hitting my 28-1 horse on Saturday). We’re really missing football right about now; on the bright side, we are 7-3 ATS with our USFL picks the past month, though that’s also including a 3-game losing streak after starting 7-0.

Our losing plays on Tuesday were the Rockies First 5 Innings +1.5 +105 (and +210 full-game money line) vs. the Dodgers and Brewers First 5 Innings +120 at the Mets as both our teams failed to score a run in the first half of their games and both trailed 4-0.

We certainly hope that our loyal readers are still up for the summer after our plays were +15.6 units in May, and trust that most have been reducing their wagers as it’s been clear that I’ve hit a cold streak (I’ve been doing that a little but not as much as I should).

I’ve always said that no one should follow anyone blindly and that everyone has winning streaks and losing streaks. Remember, I’ve also said that I do these daily columns to give a glimpse into the life of a daily sport bettor and dealing with the highs and lows that we all experience and working through it. Anyone who says they haven’t had a losing streak like this is either lying or hasn’t been betting long enough. 

Actually, yesterday I reached out to one of our readers, Dave Strader, as he wrote to me in April when I was slumping and he talked about how he was going to start following me because it looked like I was warming up (we equated my handicapping to the zig-zag theory or the way I bet streaks and teams coming off losing streaks). 

Regardless, I don't like when public handicappers say "I'm doing so bad that you should bet against these picks" because I don't think it's right to even joke about intentionally trying to give losing picks, so we'll get back to the process with 2 MLB plays on Wednesday.

Note: as I wrote the last 2 days, I don’t have an official play yet on the USFL Championship Game on Saturday. As we discussed with VSiN colleague Greg Peterson on “The Greg Peterson Experience” show on Sunday night, the Birmingham Stallions opened as 6-point favorites over the Pittsburgh Maulers. I knew right away that I wanted to play the underdog but was hoping the line would be at least 7. I also wrote “I fully expect to get that later in the week as the public will probably be looking to bet the Stallions as the defending champions, plus anyone cashing on them as the chalk in their rout on Sunday won’t be deterred from betting them again at any price.” While some books went to Birmingham -6.5 on Monday, Circa Sports went to 7 and most books have followed suit. I have seen a +7.5, but there was a -125 attached, so I’m still not locking it in as a Best Bet here or on the VSiN Pro Picks page as I’m waiting to get the hook with lower juice. I certainly want everyone with me to monitor the line movement and bet the Maulers when they think the line has peaked.


MLB Wednesday Best Bets

Astros First 5 Innings +100 at Cardinals: Even though they lost the opening game of this three-game series on Tuesday night, we’re not sure why the Astros (42-36) were underdogs to the Cardinals (32-45) on the overnight line, but we’ll take it. We also like Houston Cristian Javier (7-1, 3.25 ERA) vs. Miles Mikolas (4-5, 4.23 ERA).

Reds First 5 Innings +135 at Orioles: We bet the Reds vs. the Orioles on Monday as we expected them to get back on the winning track. They lost that day, and then of course came back to win 3-1 Tuesday as +130 underdogs when we didn’t have them. I’m sure everyone can relate as that’s how these things seem to happen when you’re in a slump. But hopefully the Reds are back on track and live dogs on Wednesday with Luke Weaver vs. Kyle Gibson at a very generous price.

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