Tuley: Tuesday MLB Best Bets 7/18

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

July 18, 2023 05:59 AM


Monday Best Bet recaps

Monday was a strange day in the Tuley’s Takes home office as we did some errands, hired a pool guy (after years of doing it myself) and got back to work on my articles for the upcoming VSiN College Football Betting Guide (due out Aug. 3).

I really liked my MLB Best Bets for Monday, and felt really good in the early innings as the Marlins First 5 Innings +105 at Cardinals and Twins First 5 +100 at the Mariners were both leading heading into the bottom of the 5th innings before both lost.

Jesus Luzardo was rolling along for the Marlins and leading 2-1 when he was pulled after the first two batters reached base and both went around to score and were charged to him as the Cardinals took a 3-2 lead. Similarly, Sonny Gray threw 4 scoreless innings at the Mariners and was leading 2-0 when he gave up 4 runs in the bottom of the 5th to deal us another heartbreaking loss.

My friend, Roger Dorn (his real name, not the fictional third baseman from the movie “Major League), asked if I should start looking at full-game moneylines. Instead, I brought up something I mentioned here a few weeks ago that maybe it was time to start betting First 3 Inning lines to further shorten these bets with my dogs. I like it best when my columns are interactive with my loyal readers. I would love to hear if all of you are interested in First 3 plays, or even if your bookie offers them, whether you’re in a state with legalized sports betting or use a traditional bookie or offshore book. You can email me at [email protected] or reply to me on Twitter @ViewFromVegas or DM if we follow each other.

Anyway, our 0-2 day further cut into our round-robin profits from last Friday. Our official plays here dropped to a woeful 10-20-1 so far in July for a net loss of $760, according to the VSiN Pro Picks page. The more we hear from readers that did profit from our round-robins last Friday, the more I feel better about this extended slump (note: I also hope some followers continue to enjoy some of the non-official plays I throw in such as the Nationals First 5 +120 yesterday as they led the Cubs 4-1 after 5 innings – I also mentioned a lean on the Orioles -130 vs. the Dodgers, but hopefully our “dog-or-pass” disciples passed on that as they lost as chalk, though they did lead after 5).

Let’s try to get back on the winning track with two MLB First 5 underdogs on Tuesday.


Tuesday MLB Best Bets

Brewers First 5 Innings +0.5 +100 and +170 ML at Phillies: We’re not a big fan of Philadelphia’s Aaron Nola (8.6, 4.39 ERA), so we have no problem backing the Brewers here with Julio Teheran (2-3, 3.64 ERA). Plus, while the Phillies just won the last 3-of-4 over the Padres in a weekend series, the Brewers are also playing just as well with a 3-game sweep of the Reds and beating them 5-of-6 in two series wrapped around the All-Star Break to take the lead back in the NL Central. This looks way overpriced and we also like the option of taking +0.5 at around even money in cash it ends in a tie.

Dodgers First 5 Innings +105 at Orioles: Let’s go back with the Dodgers as underdogs, as they bounced back despite being in an “anti-swagger” spot on Monday (after their 6-game winning streak was snapped) by beating the Orioles 6-4, even though we’re not really getting the best of it with Michael Grove (1-2, 6.89 ERA) vs. Tyler Wells (7-4, 3.18 ERA).

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