Tuley: Thursday MLB Best Bets, plus early take on Saturday's USFL championship game

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

June 29, 2023 05:02 AM


Wednesday Best Bet Results

Wednesday was a long day waiting for the games we bet on to see if we could end our losing streak since last Saturday.

It was also spent awaiting the VSiN NFL Betting Guide, which I was also helping put together and was slated to come out Thursday but was in our inbox at 7:15 p.m. ET/4:15 p.m. PT.

We then lost our Best Bet of the day on the Astros First 5 Innings +100 at the Cardinals as they teased us by jumping out to a 3-0 lead in the top of the 1st Inning only to give up 4 to the Cardinals in the bottom half on the way to losing the F5 bet 6-3. However, the Astros did rally to win 10-7 for those who bet our F5 plays on the full-game money line.

Even better, we won our secondary play on the Reds First 5 Innings +135 at the Orioles as they also jumped out to a 3-0 lead in the top of the 1st inning to give up 4 to the Orioles in the bottom half – but this time the Reds rallied to score 3 more in the top of the 2nd and led 6-4 after 5 innings to win our bet and show a small profit for our Best Bets and also went on to win 11-7 for those betting the full-game money line.

It was our first winning day since Saturday, when we were only profitable because I hit a 28-1 horse racing long shot while going 0-5 with my sports plays.

We’re also waiting for June to end as we’re a woeful 21-36-9 for -12.7 units (not including horse racing profits), according to the VSiN Pro Picks page, after winning 15.6 units in June.

I already feel like I wrote enough about my recent slump in yesterday’s column (and resisted getting into a public pissing match on Twitter with some trolls). I know my regular loyal readers know what we’re doing with these daily columns and understand the ups-and-downs of the daily betting lifestyle. I did appreciate that a reader with the Twitter handle @DSNYDave, who had my back and I felt he was speaking for all of you when he posted: "I really enjoy your column and you were spot on today about the streaks. Sometimes I find insight in your column and sometimes I don't have enough background knowledge or I disagree, but every time I benefit from additional information. Keep it up."

So, with that pep talk, let’s get back to the daily grind with 2 MLB plays on Thursday.

Note: as I wrote the last 3 days, I don’t have an official play yet on the USFL Championship Game on Saturday. As we discussed with VSiN colleague Greg Peterson on “The Greg Peterson Experience” show on Sunday night, the Birmingham Stallions opened as 6-point favorites over the Pittsburgh Maulers. I want to play the underdog but was hoping the line would be at least 7. I also wrote “I fully expect to get that later in the week as the public will probably be looking to bet the Stallions as the defending champions, plus anyone cashing on them as the chalk in their rout on Sunday won’t be deterred from betting them again at any price.” While some books went to Birmingham -6.5 on Monday, Circa Sports went to 7 and most books have followed suit. I saw a +7.5 on Tuesday, but there was a -125 attached, so we continued to wait. As I write this early Thursday morning, Circa is at 7.5 -110 both ways but I’m still going to wait to see if it gets bet higher, though I wouldn’t blame anyone that wants to grab the +7.5 now.


MLB Thursday Best Bets

Pirates First 5 Innings +150 vs. Padres: This is mostly a play against the Padres, who are on a 4-game losing streak. The Pirates have been just as inconsistent of a team lately, but I’ll take them as they’re going for a home sweep of this 3-game series after easily winning 9-4 and 7-1 the last two days. I also prefer Luis Ortiz (2-3, 3.74 ERA) vs. Joe Musgrove (despite his 6-2 record, he still has a 3.88 ERA). Beware that this game has an early first pitch of 12:35 p.m. ET/9:35 a.m. PT.

Astros First 5 Innings -110 at Cardinals: I know we lost with our First 5 play on the Astros yesterday (though, again, they came back to win the game), but we still have the the better team here at basically pick-’em (F5 wagers typically have a 20-cent line, so PK is -110 for both sides as opposed to the -105 for a dime line). We also like J.P. France (2-3, 3.54 ERA) over Adam Wainwright (3-2, 6.56 ERA).

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