Tuley: Thursday Best Bets in MLB 5/4

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

May 4, 2023 05:09 AM


Wednesday Best Bet Results

It was another winning day overall in and out of the Tuley’s Takes office on Wednesday as we wrapped up the VSiN Kentucky Derby Betting Guide (subscribers should have it in their VSiN account or see the daily newsletter).

My wife’s cousin also got married and we went to dinner with them at Ellis Island (I got the prime rib, which was not as big as the one I famously get at Jerry’s Nugget but just as delicious) and then took the happy couple to Circa for the Golden Knights’ playoff win while I joined my Matt Youmans and Wes Reynolds colleagues on “VSiN Tonight” to promote the Derby Guide.

As for my wagers, I won my Best Bet of the day on the Rockies First 5 +100 vs. the Brewers as Colorado scored 4 runs in the bottom of the 4th inning to lead 4-0 after 5 innings to win our bet and went on to easily win 7-1 as +102 home dogs for those playing my pick that way.

I also won my posted play on the Golden Knights as short -105 home dogs vs. the Oilers in their 6-4 victory, holding off a furious rally by Connor McDavid and Co., clinching the win with an empty-net goal to the delight of the crowd at Circa (and at T-Mobile Arena a few miles away). VGK led 3-2 after the first period to also give us a winner on the first leg of our unofficial 1P parlay to the Kraken-Stars 1P Over 1.5 in tonight’s game (we were thrilled to get the parlay at +233 when the Thursday game was finally posted Wednesday afternoon).

Note: I’ll probably bet the Kraken-Stars to the Oilers-Golden Knights game on Saturday when the 1P Over 1.5 lines for that game are posted (as of this writing, the only books I’ve seen so far have posted Over 2 goals).

Let’s get to my plays for Thursday, though I should also point out that I was happy that I passed on the 76ers +7.5 at the Celtics on Wednesday night even though Joel Embiid. You see, the Celtics were in the “zig-zag” role after losing Game 1 and I didn’t want to fade them and it proved beneficial as the Celtics easily covered in a 121-87 rout. We’re passing on the Lakers +6 at the Warriors tonight for the same reason. Note that the oddsmakers have raised the Warriors from -4.5 in Game 1 to -6 for Game 2 in anticipation of the bounceback spot for GSW.

MLB Thursday Best Bets

Braves +100 at Marlins: I know I’ve had more success with First 5 Inning plays in MLB (and I have one below), but I’m going with this full-game wager for my Best Bet of the day. I also know the Marlins have the starting pitching edge with Jesus Luzardo (2-1, 3.48 ERA) vs. Dylan Dodd (1-1, 7.71 ERA), but it’s still the Braves (21-10) vs. the Marlins (16-15) and the Braves have one of the best bullpens (3.90 ERA) while the Marlins have one of the worst (4.72 ERA). So, that’s why we’re counting on the full game ML for the cream to rise to the top.

Angels First 5 +115 at Cardinals: St. Louis is on a 5-game losing streak, so we’re not sure why they’re still getting so much respect from oddsmakers (and the Angels were relatively short -125 favorites with Ohtani yesterday before winning 6-4), but we’ll gladly take the plus-money here. The Angels also look playable at +120 for the full game.

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