Sunday Best Bets, Saturday Recaps
Saturday was full of sports betting and horse racing action for yours truly, but also family time.
While still visiting my oldest child, Jordyn, at Northern Arizona University in Flagstaff, Ariz., we spent the day at Bearizona (a Jurassic Park for bears and other wildlife with a drive-thru area and also a zoo-like area) and night at Lowell Observatory.
Thanks to sports betting being legal in Arizona, I was able to keep up on my bets and had a great day. I lost my supposed top play on the Brewers First 5 Innings +125 vs. Cardinals as the Cards led 6-0 after 5 innings on the way to a 6-0 victory as I suffered my first MLB loss of the season, dropping to 2-1-1 (still a profit of 1.2 units). Eric Lauer didn’t contain the St. Louis bats as I expected and the Brewers offense couldn’t get to Jordan Montgomery (not a good combo).
I won my XFL play on the Vegas Vipers +7 at the St. Louis Battlehawks. We got the best number at +7 as it was bet down to +5 and hopefully our followers got the best number as well. However, the most important thing is that we were on the right side the whole game and got the cash as the Vipers covered all numbers even though the Battlehawks rallied to force OT and won 21-17.
But we made our most money in the NHL with our First-Period Overs. Our Best Bet was Ducks-Coyotes 1P Over 1.5 -140 / Flames-Canucks 1P Over 1.5 -155 with the parlay paying +182 and we scored as Ducks-Coyotes was tied 1-1 and the Canucks led 2-0 after the opening 20 minutes. In Saturday’s column, I also hinted at playing a round-robin with my top plays along with Lightning-Senators and Oilers-Sharks as those both had 3 goals apiece in the first period to win any combination of 2’s, 3’s or 4’s (I wish I had used that on the VSiN Best Bets page!). VSiN follower David Allison mentioned that he played it and hopefully there were others.
Let’s get to the rest of our (full-game) recaps of Saturday’s betting action and then look for more winners on Sunday (unfortunately, only potential 1P Over play is Avalanche-Ducks with only two games on the NHL schedule).
NBA: Favorites went 2-1 SU on Saturday, but underdogs led 2-1 ATS with the upset by the Jazz (+10 in 118-114 win vs. Nuggets), plus Blazers (+17) covering in 136-125 loss at Clippers. The Timberwolves (-15) covered in a 151-131 win at Spurs. Home teams 2-1 SU but road teams led 2-1 ATS. Overs swept 3-0.
More NBA: On the season, favorites lead 798-401 SU with 16 games closing pick-'em, but dogs improved slim lead to 590-582-27 ATS (50.3%). Home teams lead 707-508 SU and 605-585-25 ATS (50.8%). In totals wagering, Overs’ slim lead improved to 610-587-18 (51%).
MLB: Faves went 10-5 with upsets by Diamondbacks (+135 in 12-8 win vs. Dodgers), Padres (+134 in 4-1 win at Braves), Royals (+130 in 6-5 win at Giants), Nationals (+130 in 7-6 win at Rockies) and Mariners (+120 in 3-2 win at Guardians). Road teams 8-7. Overs 9-6.
More MLB: On the season, faves improved to 75-50 with 1 game closing pick-'em. Road teams improved their slim lead to 64-62. In totals wagering, Overs’ lead improved to 68-52-6.
NHL: Favorites went 13-3 on Saturday with the only upsets by the Sabres (+155 in 4-3 win vs. Hurricanes), Canucks (+150 in 3-2 shootout win vs. Flames) and Senators (+119 in 7-4 win vs. Lightning). Home teams went 11-5. Over/Unders split 8-8.
Arlington Renegades upset Orlando Guardians 18-16 as 2.5-point road underdogs (stayed Under betting total of 42.5 points). St. Louis Battlehawks beat Vegas Vipers 21-17 in OT, but didn’t cover after closing as 5-point home favorites (stayed Under 44.5).
More XFL: Faves/dogs split 1-1 SU on Saturday but dogs led 2-0 ATS. Home/road teams went 1-1 SU but road teams swept 2-0 ATS. Unders swept 2-0. On the season, faves lead 21-8 SU and 16-12-1 ATS with 1 PK. Home teams lead 16-14 SU but road teams took 15-14-1 ATS lead. Unders also took 15-14-1 lead.
Sunday MLB Best Bet
Cardinals First 5 Innings +130 at Brewers (and +140 full-game ML): This is an “anti-swagger” play against the Brewers, who had their 6-game winning streak snapped by the Cardinals on Saturday. St. Louis’ Jake Woodford got lit up in his first start, but we’re counting on him to bounce back. Besides, several Cardinals have had a lot of success against Milwaukee starter Freddy Peralta, led by Nolan Arenado (.353, 3 HRs and 7 RBI in 17 ABs) and Paul Goldschmidt (.438, 2 HRs, 7 RBI in 16 ABs).
Sunday NBA Best Bet
Pistons +5.5 at Bulls: The Pistons are a “swagger play” as they snapped an 11-game losing streak at Indiana on Friday. Now they’re getting points against a Chicago team that has already clinched a berth in the play-in tournament and can’t really improve its position and will be looking ahead to the playoffs and possibly resting some starters.
Sunday XFL Best Bet
DC Defenders +2 at Seattle Sea Dragons: I’m going against my usual m.o. as the Defenders are actually in an “anti-swagger” spot after having their season-opening 6-game winning streak snapped last week by the Orlando Guardians. I failed to play the Arlington Renegades vs. Orlando because the Guardians were coming off having their 6-game losing streak snapped. DC is still the most balanced XFL team and I’m counting on them to not have a letdown and instead bounce back in a statement game.