Tuley: Monday MLB Best Bets 7/3

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

July 3, 2023 03:31 AM


Sunday Best Bet Results

(Note: this column has been updated with a price on my Angels First 5 Innings play.)

Sunday was a pretty busy sports betting day in the middle of the holiday weekend, though for yours truly, Dave Tuley, it was a travel day as we drove the family truckster nearly 10 hours from Las Vegas to San Francisco for a family vacation this week.

Holiday road, indeed.

And, yes, I stole that line from my ATS Report on Sunday’s betting action.

We left the Tuley’s Takes home office in North Las Vegas around 7:15 a.m. PT and arrived at our hotel just before 5:15 p.m. PT. The drive isn’t normally quite that long as our family of two parents and three kids had to make several food and/or potty stops.

We also did a ghost tour from Union Square up to the Nob Hill area, which is quite a climb if you’re familiar with the San Fran landscape. We ended our Sunday at Ghirardelli Square for brownies, sundaes, etc.

Unfortunately, my bets weren’t as sweet as I went 0-2 on the day with losses on the Giants First 5 Innings at the Mets and a two-team parlay on Padres -150 at Reds / Mariners -130 vs. Rays. The Giants trailed the Mets 5-1 after 5 innings while the Padres lost 4-3 at the Reds to kill our parlay. A Twitter follower tried to say we went 0-3, but technically it was 1-2 as the Mariners did rally to beat the Rays 7-6. But as I mentioned above, the parlay just counts as a 1-unit bet, so it’s 0-2 either way.

So, that did drop me back in the red at 2-3 and -0.65 units so far in July, according to the VSiN Pro Picks page, after going a woeful 23-37-10 in June for a net loss of nearly 11.4 units after winning 15.6 units in May. Yep, it’s been a roller-coaster of a spring and summer.

Now, there is one other thing I should mention. When I wrote yesterday’s column late Saturday night/early Sunday morning, the Padres were -150 at BetCRIS, which is usually a pretty good indicator of what the market will be in the morning. In this case, when I was leaving Las Vegas, the Padres were +125 and I even Tweeted “if I was writing this now, I’d make it a straight bet on Padres +125.” Anyway, it lost either way, but I wanted to point out the vagaries of publicly picking games overnight before the market has settled. We strive our best to be honest and transparent with our plays, which leads us to a possibly similar situation on Monday – with hopefully better results!


MLB Monday Best Bets

Angels First 5 Innings +160 at Padres: For starters, the Angels are a “mini-swagger play” as they snapped a 4-game losing streak Sunday with a confidence-building 7-6 win vs. the Rays. They take a short trip down the California coast with Jamie Barria (2-3, 2.92 ERA) vs. TBD. Now, this is what I meant about how the overnight markets make it tough to post this play here. The Padres were -174 overnight at Circa and -173 overnight at BetCris, so we would get around +130 for the First 5; however, we also see a +100 out there, so we’re going to not post an official price here or on the VSiN Pro Page until the morning. Please check this file and the VSiN Pro Picks page later. (Update: we're getting +160 on the Angels First 5 Innings out here on the West Coast, so even better than the full-game ML price we were seeing at Circa and BetCris overnight). There's plenty of time as the game isn't until 9:40 p.m. ET/6:40 p.m. PT).

Mariners First 5 Innings +110 at Giants: The “fade Sunday Night Baseball teams” system usually works better when they’re going on the road after having to play the primetime game (5-2 this season). But we’re fading the Giants here anyway. Also, I’ll take Bryan Woo (1-1, 4.37 ERA) to go toe to toe with Logan Webb (7-7, 3.43 ERA).

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A Numbers Game: Be careful betting baseball games right now, if they don’t involve teams still trying to make the playoffs. Teams that have clinched or teams that are completely out of it will be approaching games far differently. View more tips.

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