Tuesday MLB Sharp Report

April 4, 2023 02:03 AM

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Tuesday's betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET. 

You can also track the VSiN Betting Splits for every game. 

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Tuesday's MLB slate...


7:05 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Rays (-175, 8.5) at Washington Nationals 

The Rays (4-0) took Monday night's series opener 6-2, cashing as -175 road favorites. In tonight's rematch, Tampa Bay sends out lefty Josh Fleming (2-5, 6.43 ERA in 2022) and Washington (1-3) counters with righty Chad Kuhl (6-11, 5.72 ERA). This line opened with the Rays listed as a -160 road favorite and the Nats a +145 home dog. Sharps are riding the hot hand, steaming Tampa Bay up from -160 to -175. Road favorites who made the postseason the previous year against teams who did not went 271-167 (62%) in 2022. Tampa Bay also has value as an Interleague favorite with a line move, as the lack of familiarity provides an edge to the "better" team. The Rays have the far better bats (hitting .278 vs .211) and superior pitching (1.00 team ERA vs 4.00 team ERA for the Nats). Sharps are also leaning over, as the total is 8.5 with the over juiced to -120, signaling a possible rise up to 9. The forecast calls for mid 70s with 5-10 MPH winds out to left center. 


7:10 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Pirates at Boston Red Sox (-140, 9)

The Pirates (2-2) stole last night's series opener 7-6, cashing as +135 road dogs. In tonight's rematch, Pittsburgh taps righty Roansy Contreras (5-5, 3.79 ERA) while Boston (2-2) turns to fellow righty Nick Pivetta (10-12, 4.56 ERA). This line opened with the Red Sox listed as a -150 home favorite and Pittsburgh a +135 road dog. Sharps have jumped on the plus money with the Pirates, dropping Pittsburgh from +135 to +125. This line movement is notable because 82% of bets taking Boston as the big public play, yet the line has fallen toward the Pirates. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the road dog. The Pirates have the better pitching staff so far this season (4.68 ERA vs 7.76 ERA). Pros are also leaning over, as the total is 9 with the over juiced to -115, signaling a possible rise up to 9.5. Boston is 4-0 to the over this season.

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