MLB Sunday Night Baseball Preview: Yankees vs. Orioles odds, predictions and best bets

July 30, 2023 09:40 AM

MLB Sunday Night Baseball Preview: Yankees vs. Orioles odds, predictions and best bets

On Sunday, July 30th, the Baltimore Orioles host the New York Yankees for a little Sunday Night Baseball. In addition to giving out best bets and player props this year, we’ll also regularly be diving into MLB’s Sunday night game of the week. We know there will be a lot of eyeballs on these matchups, and we want to make sure you know what you’re getting into in these games. So, keep reading to see how we’re playing this one!

MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on July 30

Yankees vs. Orioles betting odds

Orioles -135 / Total: 9

For updated odds, check out our VSiN MLB Odds page!

Yankees vs. Orioles Side Analysis

This primetime meeting between the Yankees and Orioles is a big one, as New York is looking to win this series and start building for a post-deadline postseason push. Meanwhile, Baltimore is only 1.5 games up on the Tampa Bay Rays atop the AL East, so every game is important in a race like that. With that said, this should be a fun game to watch, which naturally means you’ll want some action on it.

When looking at the sides in this game, it’s hard not to see some value in the Yankees here. Luis Severino hasn’t looked particularly sharp since returning to the hill for New York, but he has still given up only four earned runs over his last two starts. Severino gave up a total of 14 hits over those outings, but he was able to get big outs and prevent real damage. And he should stop giving up so much hard contact as he continues to get more and more comfortable.

Perhaps most importantly, Severino threw 98 pitches against the Los Angeles Angels two starts ago and followed it up by hitting the 100-pitch mark in last Sunday’s outing against the Kansas City Royals. Severino has now thrown at least 100 pitches twice in the last two months, showing there are no physical limitations on him right now. With that said, it’s only a matter of time before he starts pitching a bit better, and his velocity and spin rates support that.

Overall, it isn’t hard to envision Severino having a good start against this Baltimore team. Sure, Severino was lit up by the Orioles in 2.2 innings of work on July 6th, but I expect him to be a lot better in this spot. It’s a lot easier to pitch in Baltimore than it is in New York, and the Orioles’ offensive performance in that last meeting felt a little fluky. Baltimore is a bottom-15 team when it comes to wRC+ against righties this season, so this lineup isn’t as good as people might think.

Something else to consider when looking at this matchup is that Severino isn’t much worse than Dean Kremer, even with the Yankees righty in his current mediocre form. So, with the matchup on the mound being somewhat even, backing the team with the better offense is the best course of action in this game. With Aaron Judge back in the lineup for New York, that would be the Yankees. New York scored eight runs in Judge’s second game back from his toe injury, and everybody in the offense benefits from his presence.

Yankees vs. Orioles Total Analysis

This is definitely a total in which people will see the number and jump to bet the Over, but I can see this one being lower in scoring than expected. Severino is due for a much better start in his second outing against this Orioles offense, and I can see him matching everything Kremer does for six or seven innings. And Kremer has been pitching well for Baltimore recently, as he has given up one earned run in three of his last four starts. The Under is also 18-7 when Kremer is pitching in night games over the last two seasons, with the average total runs scored in those games being 6.9 runs per game.

While Judge being back in the lineup makes the Yankees a more dangerous team, these are still two teams that are nothing but average when facing right-handed pitching. So, it isn’t fair to expect either of these offenses to explode. And both of these teams also happen to have good bullpens, which is always nice when betting the Under.

Yankees vs. Orioles Best Bet 

While the Yankees aren’t a bad play on the moneyline, I think the best bet you can make in this game is the Under. This might not look like the most inspiring matchup on the hill, but both pitchers are better than you might think. And both offenses are a lot worse than you might think.

Pick: Under 9 (-125)

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A Numbers Game: Be careful betting baseball games right now, if they don’t involve teams still trying to make the playoffs. Teams that have clinched or teams that are completely out of it will be approaching games far differently. View more tips.

Ian Cameron: USC at Colorado - OVER (73.5). View more picks.