MLB Sunday Night Baseball Preview: Phillies vs. Braves odds, predictions and best bets

May 28, 2023 08:40 AM

MLB Sunday Night Baseball Preview: Phillies vs. Braves odds, predictions and best bets

On Sunday, May 28th, the Atlanta Braves host the Philadelphia Phillies for a little Sunday Night Baseball. In addition to giving out best bets and player props this year, we’ll also regularly be diving into MLB’s Sunday night game of the week. We know there will be a lot of eyeballs on these matchups, and we want to make sure you know what you’re getting into in these games. So, keep reading to see how we’re playing this one!

MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on May 28

Phillies vs. Braves betting odds

Braves -260 / Total: 9

For updated odds, check out our VSiN MLB Odds page!

Phillies vs. Braves Run Line Analysis

The Braves are -260 favorites to defeat the Phillies on Sunday, so this isn’t a game in which you’ll want to play Atlanta on the moneyline. However, it’s completely understandable if you opt to run with the -1.5 run line.

Spencer Strider will be on the mound for the Braves in this game, and he’s 4-2 with a 2.97 ERA and 97 strikeouts this season. When he’s rolling, nobody in the league looks more untouchable. And last year, Strider was 4-0 with a 1.27 ERA in four starts against this Phillies team. He also struck out 34 batters in 21.1 innings of work against Philly, so this is a matchup he likes quite a bit.

Not only is Strider on the mound for the Braves in this one, but the Phillies are countering with Dylan Covey. Covey has a career 6.45 ERA and has only appeared in two games over the last three seasons, with neither one of them being starts. So, this is a game in which Philadelphia will be leaning on its bullpen a lot. And the Phillies have a mediocre bunch of relievers, so that isn’t exactly a good thing.

Overall, it’s just hard to come up with reasons to back Philadelphia in this game, unless you’re just desperate to play a huge underdog. Everything leans in Atlanta’s favor, on paper.

Phillies vs. Braves Total Analysis

While Strider has mostly been dominant this season, the righty has actually allowed four runs in three of his last five starts. And he has also given up at least two earned runs in all of those outings. So, while I expect him to mostly give Philadelphia trouble in this game, a dangerous Phillies lineup should be able to plate a few against him.

If Philadelphia does end up contributing on the scoreboard, this over should hit rather easily. It’s just hard to imagine the Braves not putting a big number on the board against Covey and the Phillies bullpen. This is a golden matchup for a lineup that is fourth in the league in wRC+. So, you can count on Atlanta doing some damage here.

Phillies vs. Braves Best Bet 

Strider is in a league of his own when it comes to strikeouts these days. The 24-year-old has 97 strikeouts in 57.2 innings this season, and he has had at least nine strikeouts in eight of his 10 starts. With that said, we’re taking the righty to hit that mark again here. Philadelphia has the 12th-highest strikeout rate in the league against righties this season, and this just shouldn’t be a matchup that trips him up.

Pick: Strider Over 8.5 Strikeouts (-136)

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