MLB Sunday Night Baseball Preview: Phillies vs. Astros odds, predictions and best bets

April 30, 2023 10:40 AM

MLB Sunday Night Baseball Preview: Phillies vs. Astros odds, predictions and best bets

On Sunday, April 30th, the Houston Astros host the Philadelphia Phillies for a little Sunday Night Baseball. In addition to giving out best bets and player props this year, we’ll also regularly be diving into MLB’s Sunday night game of the week. We know there will be a lot of eyeballs on these matchups, and we want to make sure you know what you’re getting into in these games. So, keep reading to see how we’re playing this one!

MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on April 30

Phillies at Astros betting odds

Astros -145/ Total: 9

For updated odds, check out our VSiN MLB Odds page!

Phillies at Astros Side Analysis

This is a rematch of last year’s World Series, which the Astros were able to win in six games. The Phillies have gotten a little revenge already in this one, as Philadelphia has already secured the series win by winning the first two in this three-game set. But the Phillies will now look to sweep the Astros, and it’s hard not to like them to do so.

Bailey Falter hasn’t been great for Philadelphia this season, but he’s likely going to turn things around a bit soon. Falter had a 3.86 ERA in 20 appearances for the Phillies last year, but his ERA is up at 4.50 this season. However, there’s nothing that suggests Falter’s numbers should be worse. His velocity isn’t noticeably slower this year, and his spin rates look good. With that said, he should be due for some good outings soon. And it wouldn’t be surprising if he pitched well against an Astros team that isn’t great against lefties.

The Phillies are also plenty capable of hitting Jose Urquidy, who is just 1-2 with a 5.64 ERA this season. Urquidy is a bit better than his numbers suggest, but he’s not the type to go out and shut opponents down — especially an opponent like this.

Overall, it’s just hard not to view the Phillies as the more likely team to get some runs across home plate here, and that makes Philadelphia a good value play.

Phillies at Astros Total Analysis

The Astros have scored three or fewer runs in four of their last five games, and this offense is just struggling right now. Houston isn’t at full strength at the moment, so it makes sense that the offense isn’t humming. But that presents an opportunity for Falter to turn in a decent outing here. And if he can do that, there’s no reason this under shouldn’t hit.

The Phillies do have an explosive offense, but Urquidy isn’t likely to get shelled in this start. He’s off to a slow start to this season, but he’s a solid starter. The Phillies have also scored just three or fewer runs in three of their last five games, and they haven’t exactly gone crazy offensively recently. They did score nine runs in a win over the Colorado Rockies on April 23rd, but they have only scored more than five runs in three of their last 12 games. And without them getting super hot, this one should go under.

The previous two games in this series went under the total, and the under was 4-1-1 in the World Series last year.

Phillies at Astros Best Bet

While the Phillies look like a decent value as underdogs tonight, the best pick you can make in this game is the under. Falter and Urquidy are both better than their numbers suggest, and the Astros offense is a lot worse than people might think. Houston is just 19th in the league in wRC+, and the team can desperately use the returns of Jose Altuve and Michael Brantley.

Pick: Under 9 (-110)