MLB Sunday Night Baseball Preview: Mets vs. Red Sox odds, predictions and best bets

July 23, 2023 08:40 AM

MLB Sunday Night Baseball Preview: Mets vs. Red Sox odds, predictions and best bets

On Sunday, July 23rd, the Boston Red Sox host the New York Mets for a little Sunday Night Baseball. In addition to giving out best bets and player props this year, we’ll also regularly be diving into MLB’s Sunday night game of the week. We know there will be a lot of eyeballs on these matchups, and we want to make sure you know what you’re getting into in these games. So, keep reading to see how we’re playing this one!

MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on July 23

Mets vs. Red Sox betting odds

Red Sox -145 / Total: 10.5

For updated odds, check out our VSiN MLB Odds page!

Mets vs. Red Sox Side Analysis

After losing the first game in yesterday’s double-header, the Red Sox showed up against Max Scherzer in the second one. Boston scored five runs on six hits in just 5.0 innings against Mad Max, and the team then got to reliever Trevor Gott immediately after. Gott gave up three earned runs in just 0.1 innings, which essentially shut the door on the Mets. Now, you’d have to think that Boston will feel good about its chances of hitting Carlos Carrasco on Sunday.

Carrasco is coming off a start in which he gave up four earned runs on six hits in just 4.2 innings against the Chicago White Sox, and he now has a 5.35 ERA on the season. There are, however, some things working in the righty’s favor here. For starters, Carrasco is 2-2 with a 3.86 ERA in seven road starts this season, so the veteran has clearly been a lot more comfortable when pitching away from Citi Field this year. Carraco also happens to be 3-0 with a 3.79 ERA in seven evening starts this season. With that said, he might be able to dial it in and turn in a solid performance tonight. But I still have some doubts there.

This Red Sox team is sixth in the league in slugging and 11th in wRC+ against righties this season, and Boston is also sixth in wRC+ when playing at home. This lineup is built to rake at Fenway Park, and the Sox should find a way to make Carrasco uncomfortable in this one. Keep an eye on guys like Masataka Yoshida, Alex Verdugo and Jarren Duran here. All three are capable of crushing right-handed pitching, so they’ll like what they see from Carrasco in this spot.

As for Boston’s pitching, this is a bullpen game for the Sox. While that’s not always something you want to hear — especially for a team with a middle-of-the-pack bullpen — it could prevent the Mets from getting comfortable at the plate. And this is a New York lineup that can go very cold.

Mets vs. Red Sox Total Analysis

These teams combined to score 14 runs in last night’s game, and the early game wasn’t exactly low in scoring either. The two teams didn’t go Over the total in that first one, as they combined to score only nine. But this has still been a relatively high-scoring series thus far, and these aren’t the most inspiring pitching options on the mound tonight. With that said, it’s hard to envision this game not being somewhat similar to last night’s contest. At the very least, I’d expect the Red Sox to do their part in helping Over bettors here.

The Over is actually 23-12 in the home games Boston has played against right-handed starters this season, and the average total runs scored in those games is 11.4 runs per game. The Over is also 8-5 in the 13 games that the Sox have played as home favorites of -125 to -175 on the season.

Mets vs. Red Sox Best Bet 

Laying -145 odds never sounds all that appealing, but it feels like the right call in this game. Boston has a bunch of hitters that should be able to do some damage against Carrasco in this game, and I have my doubts over how effective this Mets lineup will be against these Red Sox relievers.

Pick: Red Sox ML (-145)

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