MLB Sunday Night Baseball Preview: Dodgers vs. Padres odds, predictions and best bets

By Zachary Cohen  (VSiN.com) 

May 7, 2023 09:40 AM
 

MLB Sunday Night Baseball Preview: Dodgers vs. Padres odds, predictions and best bets

On Sunday, May 7th, the San Diego Padres host the Los Angeles Dodgers for a little Sunday Night Baseball. In addition to giving out best bets and player props this year, we’ll also regularly be diving into MLB’s Sunday night game of the week. We know there will be a lot of eyeballs on these matchups, and we want to make sure you know what you’re getting into in these games. So, keep reading to see how we’re playing this one!

MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on May 7

Dodgers vs. Padres betting odds

Padres -115/ Total: 8

For updated odds, check out our VSiN MLB Odds page!

Dodgers vs. Padres Side Analysis

This week’s Sunday Night Baseball matchup pits Julio Urias and the Dodgers against Joe Musgrove and the Padres. These teams split wins in the first two games in this series, so the winner of tonight’s game will take the three-game set. And all things considered, it’s hard not to have a slight lean on the home team in this one.

The Padres have hit left-handed pitching rather hard this year, as they’re eighth in the league in wRC+ against southpaws this season. We don’t expect there to be too many runs scored in this game — we’ll get more into the total below — but the Padres’ success against lefties, combined with Urias’ road struggles this season, makes it hard not to think it’s a little more likely that San Diego will break through in this spot.

Musgrove has gotten off to a slow start to the season, as he has struggled in the two starts he has made since returning from a 15-day IL stint. However, Musgrove generally performs at a high level on big stages, and he was rock solid in four starts against Los Angeles this year. Having said that, the Padres are going to feel good about where they stand on the mound in this one. And their bats should come through, when needed.

It's also hard to ignore that the Padres have home-field advantage here. That might not seem all that important in May, but Los Angeles is just 8-8 on the road this year. And this has turned into one of the more exciting rivalries in the sport, so the fans are going to be making some noise in San Diego.

Dodgers vs. Padres Total Analysis

Urias has had some rough road starts this season, but he’s coming off a game in which he struck out 10 batters and gave up just one earned run over 7.0 innings against the Philadelphia Phillies. With that in mind, he’s going to be feeling good about his stuff entering this one, and it’s hard to see him getting shelled by this Padres lineup. Meanwhile, Musgrove started four games against the Dodgers last season and he gave up three or fewer earned runs in three of those outings. So, he should also be able to do his part in keeping this game under.

Since the start of last season, the under also happens to be 14-5 when Urias has faced NL teams with batting averages of .245 or worse. The average total runs scored in such games also happens to be just 6.3 runs per game. On top of that, the under has hit in each of the last four games that San Diego has played.

Dodgers vs. Padres Best Bet 

Last season, Musgrove averaged 7.75 strikeouts per game in his four starts against the Dodgers. Of course, the righty hasn’t exactly pitched up to his standards this season, but it’s only a matter of time before he gets himself on track. This is a guy that was 10-7 with a 2.93 ERA in 2022, and he should only start feeling better and better after having started the year on the 15-day IL. Look for Musgrove to strike out at least six batters in this one, going over his strikeout total of 5.5. Los Angeles has the fifth-highest strikeout rate in baseball this season.

Pick: Musgrove Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-110) 

VSiN MLB Links 

MLB Best Bets & Props for Sunday, May 7th

MLB Betting Splits

MLB Injury Report

MLB Team Power Ratings

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