MLB schedule today has 15 games
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Now, let’s get to the baseball.
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Here are some thoughts on the June 28 card (odds from DraftKings):
San Diego Padres (-155, 8) at Pittsburgh Pirates
Yu Darvish was pushed back due to an illness yesterday and the Pirates took advantage of Reiss Knehr and the Padres bullpen in a big 9-4 win. The Pirates will hope for another underdog victory today behind ace Mitch Keller, but they’ll have to contend with a surging Blake Snell to get it.
Snell comes into this start with a 3.22 ERA, 4.15 xERA, and a 3.85 FIP in his 81 innings of work. Over his last six starts, he has allowed all of two earned runs and hasn’t allowed more than four hits in any of those outings. Recently, he’s gone on a strikeout binge with 35 strikeouts against just three walks in his last three starts against the Rockies (at Coors), Rays, and Giants. He also fired six shutout innings against the Cubs and Marlins prior to that, a couple of top-five caliber offenses against lefties. He’s on quite a roll and he’s actually got at least six innings in each of his last five starts and eight of his last 10 overall, which is something we haven’t really seen from him in recent seasons.
It’s the opposite for Keller, who has a 3.45 ERA, 3.26 xERA, and the same FIP on the season, but the Pirates ace actually has a 5.20 ERA in his last six starts. He’s been a bit better in his last three, holding the Mets and Marlins to one run over seven innings with a subpar start in between against the Brewers. Recently, Keller has lost his ability to generate swings and misses with a single-digit SwStr% in each of his last four starts and just a 6.3% SwStr% in that span.
We’ll see what happens here, as the Padres continue to struggle and fall well short of expectations.
Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets (-145, 8.5)
The Mets looked like a bit of an optimistic favorite yesterday, but took care of their affairs in a 7-2 thrashing of the Brewers. Julio Teheran gave up four home runs, as his regression finally came to the forefront and the Brewers were stymied by lefty David Peterson for six shutout innings. Fortunately for Milwaukee, they get back to facing a righty today in the person of Kodai Senga.
In my mind, and based on the numbers, Milwaukee’s offense is pretty bad all the way around, but the Brew Crew has been better against righties compared to lefties. Senga has a 3.52 ERA with a 3.90 xERA and a 4.12 FIP in his 76.2 innings of work. The Japanese import has a 28% K% in his first season, but also a 13.3% BB%, so he’s had some trouble finding the plate at times. He’s allowed a 41.8% Hard Hit%, but only nine homers and only four over his last 10 starts.
Senga’s walk rate issues have been tempered a bit at times, as he walked 22 batters over his first six starts and has walked 22 in eight starts since. Nevertheless, he’s a tough guy to handicap between the walks and other things. He’s allowed at least four runs in six of his 14 starts, but also allowed one or fewer runs in six starts. So, you take the good with the bad with him and there’s been a little more good than bad based on that 3.52 ERA.
The Brewers are just 25th in wOBA against righties and have the third-highest K% at 25%. They also have a 9.2% BB%, so this looks like it will be a usual start for Senga with some punchouts and free passes.
Wade Miley goes for Milwaukee today with a 2.91 ERA, 4.48 xERA, and a 4.30 FIP in his 52.2 innings of work. The left-hander has a low 14.8% K% with a strong 5.3% BB%, but his .233 BABIP and 81.9% LOB% look like prime areas to expect regression. Since returning from the IL on June 17, Miley has started against the Pirates and Guardians and allowed five hits over 11 scoreless innings with seven strikeouts against two walks.
I have no idea what Mets owner Steven Cohen will say this afternoon prior to the game or how it might impact the ballclub. I’m also not sure I can confidently lay this price, even though I do think Senga matches up pretty well with Milwaukee and Miley is a walking regression bomb. Teheran’s regression hit. Let’s see if Miley’s does the same.
Philadelphia Phillies (-135, 8.5) at Chicago Cubs
Aaron Nola and Drew Smyly will get it going in Chicago, where the air quality is still a bit of a concern in the Windy City. Yesterday’s game was played and Ranger Suarez stayed on his heater with 7.1 outstanding innings and Jameson Taillon continued to struggle against a surging Phillies bunch that sits just three games out of the Wild Card chase.
Nola has a 4.38 ERA, but a 3.51 xERA and a 4.05 FIP, heading into this outing. His K% is way down from past seasons and his HR/FB% is back near his 2021 levels after taking a nice dip last season. His 13% HR/FB% is right in line with his career average, but his K% is about 3% lower and it is nearly 5% lower compared to last season. It hasn’t really hurt him that much, as he has allowed the same .218 BA that he allowed last season thanks to a .255 BABIP.
The biggest thing for Nola has simply been sequencing, as he has a 63.6% LOB% this season. He’s allowed just a .250 wOBA with the bases empty, but has a .365 wOBA with men on base and a .396 wOBA with RISP. Nola has actually allowed more homers with men on base (8) than he has solo homers (7), so that doesn’t help. His K% also drops from 27.5% with the bases empty to 18.1% with men on base. He’s given up at least four runs in four of his last six starts, but did just fire six shutout against the Braves.
Regression found Smyly, as he comes in with a 3.38 ERA, 3.61 xERA, and a 4.33 FIP over his 82.2 innings of work. Over his last five starts, he has a 4.94 ERA with a 5.85 FIP, as he’s allowed 16 runs (15 earned) on 33 hits in 27.1 innings. The biggest thing is that his K/BB ratio in that span is just 18/14, so he’s had problems with the walk and hasn’t been getting as many strikeouts. Even in his last start with five shutout innings against Pittsburgh, he walked five and only struck out four. Given that he’s faced the Pirates twice, Angels, Padres, and Reds (pre-Elly De La Cruz), his recent numbers are a big concern.
I thought a lot about the Phillies today, but Nola has allowed eight homers in his last seven starts and, despite a 30.7% K% and a 14.2% SwStr%, he still has a 4.20 ERA and a 4.06 FIP in his last 45 innings.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-210, 12) at Colorado Rockies
Kyle Freeland gets the start for the Rockies, but the starter for the Dodgers remained a question mark late into the morning. Michael Grove seemed like the easiest choice as the closest guy to stretched out in the LA bullpen, even though his most recent appearance came in high leverage. Victor Gonzalez, who has opened once this season, could be the “starter”, but that would leave Grove as the bulk guy.
Gonzalez has a 3.43 ERA with a 3.74 xERA and a 3.78 FIP in his 21 innings pitched. Grove has a 7.59 ERA with a 5.12 xERA and a 5.60 FIP in 32 innings of work. He’s given up eight homers in those 32 innings, so that’s a lot and may be a factor here at Coors Field today.
Freeland has a 4.54 ERA with a 5.12 xERA and a 4.99 FIP in his 85.1 innings pitched this season. He’s got a really low K% at 14.6% and has allowed 14 homers in 16 homers, but he’s actually pitched well at home, at least according to ERA. At Coors Field, Freeland has a 3.42 ERA with a .330 wOBA against compared to a 5.92 ERA and a .363 wOBA against on the road.
I’ve heard some people use Freeland’s home numbers as justification for a bet, but he had a 6.00 ERA with a .375 wOBA against last season in 87 innings and has a 4.63 ERA for his career, so I’m not sure this sample size from 2023 says anything other than he’s run good in situations with men on base at home.
Can’t say there’s anything I like in this one.
Detroit Tigers at Texas Rangers (-215, 9.5)
Not surprisingly, the Tigers had bullpen issues yesterday, as a tie game turned into a blowout win for the Rangers with a five-run eighth inning. Matt Manning was solid in his return with 5.2 decent innings against a great Rangers lineup, but the offense didn’t provide a whole lot of run support. We’ll see if it’s the same story today for the Tigers as they draw Dane Dunning.
Dunning is a huge regression candidate, as he comes in with a 2.76 ERA, 5.09 xERA, and a 3.93 FIP in his 71.2 innings of work. We’ve seen little hits of it here and there, including the three runs he allowed on seven hits over five innings against the Tigers on May 31, but his last two starts have been solid against the Blue Jays and Yankees. Dunning has a 3.16 ERA with a 4.21 FIP as a starter in 51.1 innings pitched.
But, Dunning only has 30 strikeouts against 16 walks in his nine starts. He’s got a 79.2% LOB% and that has done a lot of heavy lifting for him. Dunning allowed a 25% Hard Hit% in his last start, but he had a 45.4% HH% over his last seven starts heading into that outing. It’s just tough to trust the Tigers, who are among the worst offenses in baseball against righties.
It’s also hard because Joey Wentz is on the bump today and he has a 6.72 ERA with a 5.47 xERA and a 5.45 FIP in 67 innings pitched. Wentz has a .317 BABIP against and a 63.7% LOB%, so there are some positive regression signs in the profile. He’s also allowed 14 homers, so that is a glaring weakness in his game. He’s also allowed a lot of hard contact with a 44.6% Hard Hit% and a 10.8% Barrel%.
It was especially concerning to see him have a great start against the Twins on June 17 and then face them again on June 23 with a lower-quality outing. He didn’t make good adjustments and saw his SwStr% nearly cut in half with a Twins team that is quite bad at making contact.
The Rangers have continued to hit lefties throughout the season, as they are second with a .363 wOBA and a 134 wRC+. In June, they have a .370 wOBA and a 139 wRC+ against lefties, so they’ve kept it going this month in 231 PA. With Dunning’s regression signs, a good matchup for the Rangers against Wentz, and two bullpens I consider to be pretty shaky, especially of late, I think this is a high-scoring affair in Arlington.
Pick: Over 9.5 (-110)
Cleveland Guardians (-135, 9.5) at Kansas City Royals
It will be left-hander Logan Allen and left-hander Austin Cox as the Guardians and Royals play Game 2 of their weekday set. Cox will be making his first MLB start after six relief appearances without allowing a run. He has allowed just two hits in his 12.1 innings and four walks to go with 13 strikeouts. Given that he has allowed a 44% Hard Hit% on 25 balls in play, I feel like more hits are coming soon. It seems unlikely that he’ll carry a .053 BA or a .080 BABIP the rest of the way.
He’s also got a 31% K% with a 9.5% BB% after posting just a 20.6% K% and an 11.4% BB% in the minor leagues. I did read about how the automatic strike zone has raised walk rates across Triple-A this season, so that’s something I need to start considering and factoring into my handicaps.
Allen has a 3.68 ERA with a 4.42 xERA and a 3.73 FIP in his 58.2 innings of work. He only went four innings last time out because it took him 89 pitches to get 12 outs, even though he only allowed two hits against the A’s. He struck out five and walked three, as he had his first double-digit SwStr% in four starts.
These are two bad offenses against lefties, as the Royals are 25th in wOBA at .303 and Cleveland is 27th at .295, though the Guardians strike out a lot less than the Royals in this split. I gave some thought to the 1st 5 Under, but it will be oppressively hot in KC today with temps in the upper 90s and humidity in the 40-50% range throughout the game. Those are some excellent hitting conditions, even for two bad offenses.
Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Angels (-130, 9)
The first two games of this series have been very low-scoring, as the 1st 5 Under has cashed in back-to-back contests, along with largely sweat-free full-game Unders. We’ll see if that changes tonight with Lucas Giolito for the White Sox and Jaime Barria for the Angels.
I’m still scarred by the start on May 25 when Giolito walked seven Tigers in 3.2 innings, especially because it was just such an outlier. In five starts since, Giolito has only walked 10 guys with 35 strikeouts over 29 innings of work. He has a 2.17 ERA, but a 4.22 FIP, as he’s allowed five homers in that span, yet has an 88% LOB%. He’s also surrendered a ton of hard contact with a 50.7% Hard Hit% and an 11% Barrel%.
As a side note, Michael Kopech walked seven yesterday, but managed to limit the damage to two runs. I don’t know what it is about catching these White Sox pitchers on days when they can’t throw strikes.
Barria is having a really nice year for the Angels, as he owns a 2.14 ERA with a 3.69 xERA and a 3.69 FIP in 46.1 innings of work. After making three straight starts, his last appearance came in relief with three scoreless innings against the Royals. Barria got roughed up a bit by the Rangers in his last start, but that’s a way better offense than this one he’ll face tonight.
Barria has held the opposition to a 28.5% Hard Hit% on the season and has an 11.1% SwStr%, though a lot of that came in relief. Nevertheless, he’s held righties to a .138/.206/.234 slash and a .186 wOBA in 103 PA on the season. That follows a similar path to last season when he held righties to a .212/.256/.329 slash with a .258 wOBA.
Giolito has allowed a good number of rockets lately, including a 71.4% Hard Hit% against the Angels when he faced them five starts ago. I like the Angels tonight to make harder contact and deal some of the regression that Giolito has coming with his 79.9% LOB% for the season and his much higher mark in recent starts.
Pick: Angels -130
New York Yankees (-150, 7.5) at Oakland Athletics
A fascinating one here as former Yankees farmhand JP Sears gets the start for Oakland against Domingo German. Sears was part of the ill-fated Frankie Montas trade and faces the team he was drafted by in this one, as German looks to get back on track from a really rough stretch of games.
German is up to a 5.10 ERA with a 5.05 xERA and a 5.29 FIP in his 72.1 innings after allowing 10 runs on 15 hits in his last 5.1 innings of work. In five starts since getting popped a second time for foreign substances (but actually getting ejected this time), German has allowed 23 runs on 32 hits with just 20 strikeouts against 10 walks. He’s allowed a 45.2% Hard Hit% and a 10.7% Barrel% in 84 batted ball events. He’s faced Seattle twice, Boston twice, and the Dodgers, so this is obviously a step down in class, but he’s given up eight homers in that span.
Sears has a 4.10 ERA with a 4.63 xERA and a 5.04 FIP in his 83.1 innings of work, but he draws a Yankees bunch that will be without Aaron Judge for another 4-6 weeks and has been the worst offense in baseball this month by wOBA. Quietly, the A’s have been improving their pitching staff. Guys like Hogan Harris and Sears have made strides in the midst of a really tough season for Oakland.
Sears has a 2.93 ERA with a 4.60 FIP in his last eight starts. He’s given up eight homers, so FIP hates him, but he’s got a really solid 42/9 K/BB ratio in that span. He’s only allowed a 38.4% Hard Hit% and has a really solid 11% SwStr%. Furthermore, five of those eight starts have been on the road, where I would expect him to struggle a bit more because of his extreme fly ball style that plays better in Oakland than it would in most other places.
Sears actually has a 3.09 ERA with a .301 wOBA against in 35 innings across 138 plate appearances at home. I have said I’ve been looking for spots to take Sears at home and I think this is one of them against a bad offense and a guy in German that is really struggling right now.
Pick: Athletics +130
Minnesota Twins at Atlanta Braves (-165, 10)
This game has already started, but wanted to share a few thoughts.
It’s been a while since we’ve seen Kolby Allard. He was with the Rangers last season and made an appearance on October 4, but he hurt his oblique in the spring and just returned to make two rehab starts for the Braves at Triple-A. He threw 6.2 innings and struck out eight against two walks with a couple runs allowed on six hits. He won’t work deep into this game here and is auditioning for a regular spot in the rotation, as the Braves mix and match in light of some injuries.
For his career, Allard has a 6.07 ERA with a 5.36 FIP, but he’s back with the team that drafted him and the Braves are really good at maximizing pitching talent, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he winds up making some improvements.
This will be the second start back for Kenta Maeda, who threw five shutout with eight punchouts on June 23. He came back from Tommy John, only to get sidelined for nearly two months with triceps soreness. His velocity looked better in his return and he generated a good number of whiffs against the Tigers, so I’ll be interested to see how he does in this start.
Washington Nationals at Seattle Mariners (-250, 8.5)
The Mariners really gave one away yesterday, as they got a good start from Bryan Woo and squandered a golden opportunity in the 10th, only to lose in 11 innings to the gritty Nationals. Washington hasn’t found much fortune in June, but this team plays hard and you’ve gotta give them credit for that. We’ll see what they can do on a getaway day game here against Logan Gilbert.
Gilbert has a 4.07 ERA with a 3.53 xERA and a 3.63 FIP in his 86.1 innings pitched. He’s struck out over a batter per inning and deserves a better fate in the ERA department. What’s crazy is that Gilbert has allowed a .276 wOBA on the road and at home, but has a 4.00 ERA at home and a 4.11 ERA on the road. He’s allowed a .269 wOBA to lefties and a .282 wOBA to righties. His numbers are largely outstanding, but he has an ERA north of 4 because baseball is stupid and unfair.
Patrick Corbin gets the call for the Nats today with a 5.32 ERA, 6.42 xERA and a 5.16 FIP. The sick thing about Corbin is that his xERA is actually higher this season than it was last season when he was simply awful with a 6.31 ERA. Corbin’s big drop in K% is a huge reason why his xERA looks as bad as it does. He actually went on a nice run for a little while with no more than three earned runs allowed in seven straight starts, but that is no longer a thing, as he’s allowed 26 runs in his last 33.1 innings.
The Mariners should take care of their affairs today, but -250 seems pretty fair given the matchup.
Cincinnati Reds at Baltimore Orioles (-165, 9.5)
We had a blowout Baltimore win in Game 1 and then a low-scoring affair marred by two rain delays on Tuesday that fell Cincinnati’s way by a 3-1 count. The rubber match is a night game at Oriole Park and it will feature Luke Weaver and Kyle Gibson.
Gibson has a 4.30 ERA with a 4.92 xERA and a 3.93 FIP in his 16 starts over 92 innings pitched. The low FIP is a byproduct of a low home run rate, which is not something that Weaver can hang his hat on. Quite the opposite, actually, as Weaver has a 6.86 ERA with a 5.36 xERA and a 5.51 FIP.
The crazy thing about these two guys is that Weaver has objectively been way worse than Gibson, but there is only a 44-point difference in xERA and just a 20-point difference in xFIP. Weaver has given up 14 homers, though he gave up eight in his first four starts and has only allowed six in his last six starts. He’s allowed 10 runs on 17 hits in his last two starts and 20 runs on 28 hits in his last four starts. It hasn’t been pretty and he’s allowed a lot of hard contact and a lot of barrels in that span.
Speaking of hard contact, Gibson has allowed a lot of it lately himself. For the season, Gibson is up to a 43.4% Hard Hit% and it sits at 56.5% in his last four starts with a 14.5% Barrel%. He’s faced the Mariners, Cubs, Royals, and Brewers, so not exactly a murderer’s row of opponents. He’s just not locating well right now. His last two starts also show decreases in the spin rates of his fastball, sinker, and cutter.
This feels like a game where the two offenses have some success. It’ll be warm in Baltimore and lefties hit both guys well. Everybody hits Weaver well. Lefties hit Gibson better than righties and that should play up with the weather. I like the 1st 5 Over here, as the two bullpens have found some success this season and, once again, Yennier Cano and Felix Bautista are both very much available here.
Pick: 1st 5 Over 5.5 (-110)
San Francisco Giants at Toronto Blue Jays (-120, 8.5)
The Blue Jays had not yet named a starter by the early afternoon ET, but it would make sense to see Trevor Richards, who hasn’t been used since Friday. There was a lot of talk that Richards would simply get stretched out and slot in as the No. 5 starter, but his last start went poorly with three runs allowed on three hits in three innings and that was enough for the Jays to abandon the idea.
Richards has allowed a lot of hard contact lately in his appearances, but still has a 3.53 ERA with a 4.35 FIP in 35.2 innings of work. He’s maxed out at three innings this season, so that means a lot of relief work today for the Jays. The bullpen is in pretty good shape with light use on Sunday and an off day on Monday, so they can set this one up however they’d like, which is exactly what the Giants did yesterday in their shutout win.
Today’s pitching puzzle is much easier to solve, as Logan Webb gets the call. He has a 3.16 ERA with a 3.64 xERA and a 3.63 FIP in 105.1 innings pitched. As I’ve mentioned in all of his starts, he allowed 16 runs (13 earned) over his first four starts. He has a 2.64 ERA with a 3.48 FIP in his last 12 starts. He’s been a little shakier lately, giving up 13 runs over his last four starts, but he’s generally been very reliable for the Giants.
I’m actually surprised to see this line where it is with the Blue Jays about to have a bullpen game with a group that is 13th in ERA and 16th in FIP for the season, but 19th in ERA and FIP in the month of June. Maybe I’m missing something. With no starter officially listed, maybe this line will move once one is. I assume it’ll be Richards, especially since saving the only lefty in the bullpen (Tim Mayza) for a higher-leverage spot later makes sense. It’s a weird game and a weird line.
Miami Marlins (-125, 9.5) at Boston Red Sox
We have another game with a messy pitching situation here. It will be Kaleb Ort to open for Boston in front of a collection of relievers that probably includes recent call-up Chris Murphy. Ort has a 5.79 ERA with a 4.36 xERA and a 5.40 FIP in his 18.2 innings pitched. He has one really bad outing to his name against the Orioles that accounted for one-third of the runs he has allowed this season. Murphy has yet to allow a run in three appearances over eight innings with 11 strikeouts against one walk. Murphy has a 7.01 ERA in Triple-A this season.
Braxton Garrett goes for the Marlins, as he looks to improve upon a 3.64 ERA with a 4.15 xERA and a 3.10 FIP in his 76.2 innings pitched. Since allowing 11 runs to the Braves in his first May start, Garrett has allowed 15 runs total (14 earned) over 50.1 innings pitched in his last nine starts. He has a 2.50 ERA with a 2.24 FIP and a 35.2% K% with a strong 4.7% BB%. He’s been spectacular for the Marlins and a huge part of what they’ve been able to do this season.
We’ll see how he does at Fenway Park, which is a much different environment from home, but he’s been as good as anybody for a long time now. This line might be cheap with the heater he’s on, but I’m staying off the game.
Houston Astros at St. Louis Cardinals (-120, 8.5)
It is interesting to look at the markets every day and see what the Houston line looks like. The Astros are sending out Cristian Javier, who is objectively better than Miles Mikolas and the Cardinals are nine games behind Houston in the win column, but the Astros are not only an underdog, but are growing as a dog in some shops.
The Astros lineup is just a huge disappointment this season and is clearly missing Yordan Alvarez. The betting markets have no confidence in this team, even though Mikolas has a 4.23 ERA with a 5.12 xERA and a 4.04 FIP in his 93.2 innings of work. Mikolas only has a 6.8% SwStr% and has seen a big bump in his Hard Hit% up to 40.5% this season. He’s been way better in his last 13 starts than he was in his first three when he allowed 16 runs, but he’s still not the type of guy you’d expect to see favored against Houston.
Javier isn’t exactly repeating the season he had in 2022, but he’s still turning in a fine year. He has a 3.25 ERA with a 4.18 xERA and a 3.75 FIP in 83 innings pitched. He’s allowed four runs twice in his last three starts, but he only allowed four runs in one of his first 12 starts, including four straight one-run starts from May 16 to June 3.
I like the Astros a little bit today, but they’ve been a huge disappointment recently and can’t trust them when all is said and done.
TL;DR Recap
DET/TEX Over 9.5 (-110)
Angels -130
Athletics +130
CIN/BAL 1st 5 Over 5.5 (-110)
