MLB schedule today has 12 games
It is a very busy Thursday around the big leagues, as 24 of the league’s 30 teams will be in action. After we only had six games on Monday, it is no surprise to see a jam -packed slate as we head towards the weekend.
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Here are some thoughts on the June 29 card (odds from DraftKings):
San Diego Padres (-200, 9) at Pittsburgh Pirates
What a weird night last night, as dormant offenses around the league had a field day. Cleveland scored 14 runs. The Yankees scored 11. The White Sox also scored 11. The Astros scored 10. And the Pirates, who dropped a nine-spot on the Padres on Tuesday, scored seven runs en route to another lopsided win and can sweep the series today.
Joe Musgrove draws his former team in some very early getaway day baseball at PNC Park. He’ll be opposed by rookie Luis Ortiz and heads into the game as a sizable favorite with some excellent recent returns. For the season, Musgrove has a 3.88 ERA with a 3.12 xERA and a 3.89 FIP in his 60.1 innings pitched. However, over his last six starts, he has only allowed eight earned runs in 36.1 innings of work with a 30/6 K/BB ratio. He has a 1.98 ERA with a 2.62 FIP in that span and a 21.5% Hard Hit% with a 1.9% Barrel%.
With Musgrove locked in, the Buccos will need a lot out of Ortiz, who makes his 13th career start. He made four last season, which wasn’t enough to lose his rookie eligibility, but he had a 4.50 ERA with a 2.96 xERA and a 3.67 FIP in 16 innings. This season, he has a 3.74 ERA, which seems good on the surface, but he has a 6.26 xERA with a 5.12 FIP. He has a 15.2% K% with a 10.8% BB% and has allowed a 46% Hard Hit% with an 11.3% Barrel%.
Ortiz has allowed a .427 wOBA with the bases empty, but a .277 wOBA with men on base and a .296 wOBA with RISP, so he’s buckled down when it matters most…and has gotten lucky as well. We’ll see if his luck runs out here against the Padres, who have failed to get the big hit in most of their games.
Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets (-190, 8.5)
Steve Cohen’s soliloquy wound up being a dud, as he took responsibility for the team’s bad start, but said little else as we approach the halfway point of the season. New York is a big favorite here again today with Max Scherzer on the hill against Adrian Houser. Unlike other high-profile teams that are struggling (Astros, specifically), the Mets continue to be respected in the betting markets. Some days they’ve validated that respect and other days they haven’t.
Let’s see if they do today, as Scherzer comes in with a 3.95 ERA with a 3.43 xERA and a 4.12 FIP over his 70.2 innings of work. He’s on track for his first K% under 30% since 2014 and he’s had some clunkers this season, but he’s also allowed two or fewer earned runs in six of his last eight starts. In his five-run start against Atlanta, he still struck out 10. With more good starts than bad starts lately, plus Milwaukee’s lack of offensive prowess, I’d assume he pitches pretty well here.
Houser is actually having a nice season for the Brewers with a 4.02 ERA, 3.90 xERA, and a 3.95 FIP. He has a really low K% at 14% and a high BABIP at .333, but he’s largely worked around his .333 BABIP and is proof that limiting home runs can neutralize a lot of other shortcomings. Houser has only allowed three homers this season and, despite allowing 62 baserunners via hit or walk in 40.1 innings, he’s only given up 20 total runs.
This will be his first start since June 9, though, as he’s made two relief appearances and had an extended 10-day absence. That scares me a bit in terms of how sharp he’ll actually be in this one.
Philadelphia Phillies (-115, 10) at Chicago Cubs
Veteran right-handers Taijuan Walker and Kyle Hendricks meet in the series finale between the Phillies and Cubs. Walker is on a heater right now with increased velo and four stellar starts in a row. He’s allowed two earned runs in his last 26 innings pitched with 26 strikeouts against six walks. He went through a bit of a dead arm period earlier in the season and also had a couple of starts with a noticeable velo decrease, but he and pitching coach Caleb Cotham figured out some things mechanically to free up his delivery and it has paid huge dividends.
For the full season, Walker has a 4.10 ERA with a 4.49 FIP over 83.1 innings, but this is a clear-cut example of how pitchers make adjustments as the season goes along. Inevitably, something happens, mechanics get out of whack, and the cycle starts again, but Walker is in a good place right now and will try to ride that wave as long as possible.
Hendricks has a 2.60 ERA with a 4.18 xERA and a 3.54 FIP in his six starts across 34.2 innings. I backed him in his first start against the Mets and paid the price, but he’s been rather good otherwise, although, he’s really missing bats at a much lower rate than usual. He’s never been a huge strikeout guy, but he only has 18 in 34.2 innings and just six in his last 19.1 innings pitched.
Hendricks is doing what he usually does with a 34.5% Hard Hit% against and he has only allowed one homer in his six starts. He’s also only walked nine batters, so he hasn’t hurt himself with the long ball or the free pass. He’s also induced a 52.5% GB% in his last three starts, so he’s keeping the ball on the ground to really avoid any detrimental contact. The Phillies are swinging it well, though, so I think this is a good test for Hendricks.
I’m also curious to see if Walker keeps it going. I think this is a fair line with the side. The total looks to be a little high, as a light breeze is blowing out on a warm evening with showers hanging around. I don’t like to get invested in games where we might lose the starters, but for how these two are pitching, 10 seems a little optimistic.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-200, 12) at Colorado Rockies
Emmet Sheehan will get his first taste of Coors Field in this one, as the rookie right-hander lines it up for the series finale in Denver. Sheehan threw six no-hit innings in his debut against the Giants and followed it up by giving up two solo homers and one additional hit against the Astros over six frames. In some respects, the second start was actually better than the first one for Sheehan, as he controlled the zone better and had a 10.3% SwStr% compared to a 4.5% mark in his first start.
In 53.1 innings at Double-A to start the year, Sheehan had 88 strikeouts, so he had some big swing and miss numbers down there. It was 19.7% to be exact. So, we’ll see if he continues to deepen his arsenal and keep MLB hitters off-balance as his career moves forward. He does throw a ton of fastballs and MLB hitters will get to fastballs in any spot, at any velo, so that’ll be something he has to adjust to in the bigs. So far, he’s thrown over 65% fastballs with an average velo of 95.8 mph. To be honest, it’s not a bad thing at Coors Field, where breaking pitches don’t always do what you want them to do.
Anderson has a 5.79 ERA with a 5.68 xERA and a 6.61 FIP in his 42 innings this season and his last two starts are the reasons why. He’s allowed 16 runs on 17 hits in his last 5.2 innings pitched with six walks against just three strikeouts. He’s allowed five homers in his last two starts and 10 in his last five starts. I see this and it makes me think about Julio Teheran.
Anderson’s last three MLB seasons prior to this one featured a 6.81 ERA with a 5.78 FIP over 105.2 innings pitched, so there was no degree of sustainability to what he did early on. Eventually, he was going to turn back into a pumpkin and it has clearly happened. I’m not seeing many redeeming qualities heading into this start either.
I’m not sure how Sheehan’s first taste of the altitude will go. Rain is also in the forecast here and that could put the game into a delay or make things a little weird. It’s ultimately a stay-away game for me.
Detroit Tigers at Texas Rangers (-150, 9)
The Tigers will send Reese Olson to the mound and the Rangers will counter with Cody Bradford. This is Jon Gray’s turn in the rotation, but he’s pushed back, as Bradford makes his first MLB start since June 13. He pitched two-thirds of an inning on Monday, so we’ll see how far he can go in this one.
Bradford has allowed nine runs on 14 hits in 15 innings at the MLB level. He’s allowed a 55.6% Hard Hit% and a 20% Barrel% in that span with an average exit velocity of 94.8 mph. Suffice it to say that he’s not really fooling too many hitters. That’s weird because he has a 1.82 ERA in 59.1 innings at Triple-A with 50 strikeouts against 14 walks, but he also has a 4.40 FIP and a 5.91 xFIP down there, so regression signs are virtually everywhere.
Olson has some positive regression signs in his profile. He has a 4.74 ERA, but a 3.82 xERA and a 3.82 FIP over 24.2 innings pitched. He has a 53.9% LOB% on the season, even though he has a 27.7% K% with a strong 5.9% BB%. He has a .211 BA against and a .254 BABIP against, as he has allowed four homers. He’s given up a few too many barrels, but his Hard Hit% against is pretty solid at 37.3% and he’s got a solid 11.8% SwStr% to go along with that high strikeout rate.
He’s a very interesting guy and one I’ll be watching closely with the Tigers as we go forward. Bradford is interesting, too, in that I wonder when all this hard contact allowed really catches up with him. Perhaps it will be today. The Rangers do have a four-game weekend set with the Astros coming in, so is this maybe a bit of a lookahead spot for them against the lowly Tigers? I’d need a little more on the price for that.
Cleveland Guardians (-145, 9) at Kansas City Royals
Shane Bieber gets the call here for the Guardians against Zack Greinke and the Royals on a very sultry day in Kansas City. Temps are in the 100s with heat indices a few degrees higher, so it should be a good day for hitting. That doesn’t seem to bode well for either of these guys. Maybe Cleveland can follow up yesterday’s 14-run outburst with some more offense.
Bieber has a 3.69 ERA with a 4.12 FIP on the season, but it’s that 4.95 xERA that really stands out in my mind. His K% is up to 18.5%, as he looked like the Bieber of old for five innings last time out, but then the walls caved in and he went single, double, three-run homer in the sixth to turn a quality into another one that makes me question how good he is these days.
Over his last eight starts, Bieber has a 4.84 ERA with a 4.70 FIP and has allowed eight home runs. His K% is up slightly, but his command is down and he’s actually allowed a 45.9% Hard Hit% in that span. It’s been as ugly as it sounds. He’ll still throw the occasional gem, but the days of Bieber being a Cy Young candidate are in the past and now the Guardians just have to hope that they can get enough value back in a trade for him this summer.
It isn’t going particularly well for Greinke either, whose career is winding down in his age-39 season. He has a 5.31 ERA with a 4.95 xERA and a 4.63 FIP over 81.1 innings of work. His K% is actually up 5.5% from last season and his BB% has been cut down to 3.3%, but he has a 64.2% LOB% and has allowed 15 homers in 16 starts with some really ugly outings, including his last four. Greinke has allowed 19 runs in four June starts over 19 innings pitched.
Opposing batters own a .373/.373/.804 slash and a .492 wOBA in 51 plate appearances the third time through, as Greinke has allowed six homers in that split. For a pitch-to-contact guy against a contact-oriented lineup on the hottest day of the year in KC, none of this looks all that promising.
Getaway day game overs scare me because you never know if the teams will be in a hurry to move on and just won’t be engaged in the game. I also mentioned yesterday the complete lack of contact quality for Cleveland. While their offensive numbers have improved in June, they’re still not hitting balls hard. These are two bottom-five offenses against righties and we need to get to 10 runs. I’m just not confident enough that we get there.
New York Yankees (-190, 8) at Oakland Athletics
After giving up 17 runs in his previous two starts, Domingo German threw the 24th perfect game in MLB history last night. The Yankees also scored 11 runs after scoring 56 runs in 20 June games prior to last night. Baseball, once again, makes no sense.
Clarke Schmidt gets the call in another getaway day game, as the A’s will use Hogan Harris, either as the starter or as the bulk reliever. Harris has allowed 18 runs on 24 hits in 33 innings pitched, but he gave up six runs on one hit and five walks in his MLB debut back on April 14. Since his recall on May 27, Harris has a 3.31 ERA with a 3.64 FIP, so he’s actually been quite good. He just had a bad outing against Toronto with four runs allowed on five hits in 4.2 innings, but that was largely because of four walks. He only allowed three hard-hit balls in that outing.
Schmidt gave up seven runs against the Rays on May 14. Since then, he’s allowed 10 total runs in his last seven starts, with nine earned for a 2.19 ERA and a 3.69 FIP. He’s riding an 85.8% LOB% with a decreased K% from what he had earlier in the season, so I don’t know how long this continues, but he’s only allowed five barrels and a 38.4% Hard Hit%. It seems like the message from pitching coach Matt Blake was to not be afraid to pitch to contact instead of trying to strike everybody out and making mistakes trying to be too fine. Schmidt also has only nine walks in that span.
Prior to that, Schmidt had a huge 25.7% K%, but also had a 6.30 ERA with a 4.66 FIP and has allowed eight homers in 40 innings pitched. He had a 48.8% Hard Hit% and a 12.2% Barrel%. So, he made the adjustment to focus more on his command and it has worked out. It’s just a matter of how sustainable it is, but he’s been able to navigate the Rangers and Red Sox in his last three starts, so that’s been a positive development.
It’s a little warmer in Oakland and it’s a day game, so the ball could carry a bit better, otherwise I’d like the under a little bit. It’s also 8, which is pretty low.
Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Angels (-135, 9.5)
Lance Lynn and Patrick Sandoval finish up this series with yet another day game. All four AL series end with day games on Thursday, as this one wraps up a four-gamer in Anaheim. Lynn is having his worst season as a pro with a 6.40 ERA, 4.70 xERA and a 4.85 FIP in his 90 innings pitched. He’s given up 19 homers, the same number he allowed in 121.2 innings last season and one more than he allowed in 157 innings in 2021. In fact, Lynn’s career high in homers is 27 back in 2017 over 186.1 innings and he’s on pace to obliterate that.
The weird thing for Lynn is that he has a 27% K%, but just a 61.9% LOB%. His BABIP against sits at .340, which is really high considering homers don’t count towards BABIP. He’s actually done well in his last two starts to avoid hard contact and actually has 23 strikeouts in that span. His Hard Hit% is just 39.7% and his Barrel% is 10.1%, so he’s been dealt a cruel fate with batted balls this season.
Home runs come with the territory sometimes with guys that throw a lot of strikes like Lynn does, but a 20% HR/FB% is rather extreme, hence the 3.78 xFIP that he has that does signal some positive regression on the horizon. Lefties actually own a .350/.402/.655 slash with a .445 wOBA against him in 194 PA and have hit 14 of the 19 homers he has allowed. Righties only have a .203/.286/.332 slash with a .276 wOBA, so we’ll see if that trend plays out again today against the Angels.
My dude Sandoval has a 4.16 ERA with a 4.59 xERA and a 4.10 FIP on the season. He’s seen a huge drop in K% that I can’t quite put my finger on, as he’s gone from 23.7% to 16.9% in that department, even though he still has a 12.1% SwStr%. While that is the lowest SwStr% of his career, it’s still well above league average and he has the best F-Strike% of his career at 59.8%. For some reason, the strikeouts just haven’t come and he has a 71% LOB%, despite holding the opposition to a 34.3% Hard Hit%.
Another mystery with Sandoval is why he has 23 walks in 40.2 innings on the road and seven walks with just 22 strikeouts in 35 innings at home. He’s allowed a .296/.333/.444 slash at home with a .335 wOBA that is 26 points higher than what he has on the road. He’s got a mystifying set of statistics that I just cannot put my finger on. This line has come down a fair amount overnight and this morning, so there isn’t much love for Sandoval and a little love for Lynn, who does have those positive regression indicators in his stats.
Tampa Bay Rays at Arizona Diamondbacks (-115, 10)
Zack Littell will be the opener for Yonny Chirinos today as the Rays and D-Backs finish up their series in the desert. Arizona has recalled Brandon Pfaadt to make the start, so this had to be a hard line to set. Chirinos is bursting with negative regression signs and Pfaadt was pretty bad on his first call-up.
Littell has allowed nine runs on 16 hits in 12.1 innings of work, so he isn’t exactly an ideal opener. He’s given up at least one run in seven of his 10 appearances. He maxed out at 2.2 innings in his last appearance five days ago, so we could see him work more than an inning today.
Chirinos has a 3.91 ERA with a 5.56 xERA and a 4.91 FIP in his 48.1 innings pitched. He’s made four starts and seven relief appearances with a paltry 11.6% K% and he has allowed a 44.2% Hard Hit%, including 21 hard-hit balls in his last 37 batted ball events. He’s given up 13 runs (11 earned) in those two outings with 15 hits, four walks, and just six strikeouts in 10 innings pitched.
In five MLB starts, Pfaadt has allowed 22 runs on 31 hits in 23.2 innings pitched. He gave up eight homers and was sent back down to Triple-A to work on some things. In five starts, Pfaadt posted a 3.16 ERA with a 28/5 K/BB ratio and went seven excellent innings in his most recent start to win another call-up. This is a really brutal handicap, since Pfaadt is a huge question mark and Chirinos has a lot of red flags as well. But, we’ve got a high total of 10 on a getaway day, which can be very tricky. Nothing from me here.
Miami Marlins at Boston Red Sox (-110, 9)
It has been a very ugly series for the Red Sox, as they try to salvage the series finale tonight after being thumped 16-3 over the previous two nights. Brayan Bello gets the call here and you can see the market respect for him as he locks horns with Jesus Luzardo. The Marlins have gotten some of the early money and this is a pick ‘em game in some spots, but Bello was still a favorite at open despite how the two teams are playing.
The thing about Luzardo is that he’s having a fine season with a 3.77 ERA, 3.60 xERA, and a 3.44 FIP, but he has an enormous home/road discrepancy that must be mentioned here. In 54.1 innings at home over 210 plate appearances, Luzardo has held opposing batters to a .198/.257/.339 slash with a .259 wOBA. In 36.1 innings covering 162 PA on the road, opposing batters have a .309/.352/.546 slash with a .383 wOBA. Marlins Park is a forgiving venue for pitchers. Fenway Park is not.
Luzardo’s K% at home is 30.5% compared to 24.1% on the road. He also has a 6.8% HR/FB% at home compared to a 17.9% HR/FB% on the road. Environmental factors usually play a role in home/road splits, but sometimes it is nothing more than confidence and conviction. Pitchers can and will overadjust because they know the numbers and the coaches are trying to get them to do different things.
Specifically, righties own a .333/.385/.600 slash with a .418 wOBA on the road, so if you’re looking at any of the player props markets for the Red Sox, keep those numbers in mind.
Bello comes in with a 3.27 ERA, 4.12 xERA, and a 3.86 FIP. He’s thrown 66 innings this season, but struggled out of the gate in his first two starts. Since then, he has not allowed more than three earned runs in a start and he only did that once. Take Bello’s first two starts out of the equation and you get a 2.45 ERA with a 3.56 FIP in 10 starts over 58.2 innings pitched. He’s running a 57.3% GB% with a 22% K% and a 7.3% BB%.
I mentioned this going into his last start, but I feel like we’re not going to get good prices on Bello much longer. The inconsistency of the Red Sox is keeping his prices down a bit for now, but even great pitchers on bad teams wind up with a premium. To this point, I don’t think we’re seeing that on Bello as of yet.
Between Luzardo’s ugly road splits and the groove that Bello is in, I like the Red Sox today to avoid the sweep. The Red Sox are sixth in wOBA against lefties at .337 and even better at home against lefties with a .365 wOBA. That ranks fourth behind the Braves, Rangers, and Rays, so some pretty elite company. The Marlins are just 19th in wOBA against righties and have to deal with a really good one today.
Pick: Red Sox -110
San Francisco Giants at Toronto Blue Jays (-150, 9)
Baseball is weird, man. The Giants Frankensteined a pitching staff on Tuesday that threw a shutout against Toronto and beat Kevin Gausman. On Wednesday, staff ace Logan Webb was on the bump and he got rocked for five runs in the first inning. This game makes no sense.
Keaton Winn gets the call today for the Giants, as they’ll be cobbling together a staff again today. I’m actually super intrigued because Jakob Junis, Sean Manaea, and Tristan Beck are also well-rested, but the Giants don’t have a starter for tomorrow either, so we’ll see which one follows Winn in the piggyback.
Winn has allowed five runs on nine hits in 12 relief innings this season. He actually has a save, but this will be his first start. He gave up three runs on five hits last time out against the Diamondbacks and he’s given up a plethora of hard contact so far with a 48.6% Hard Hit% and an average exit velo of 93.7 mph.
Junis has a 4.84 ERA with a 4.09 xERA and a 4.73 FIP. Manaea has a 5.79 ERA with a 5.31 xERA and a 4.30 FIP. Beck has a 3.54 ERA with a 3.63 xERA and a 4.45 FIP. I’m not sure how the Giants will handle it, but they play the Mets tomorrow, so I’m sure they’ll study the splits and figure it out.
Meanwhile, the Blue Jays will just send Chris Bassitt to the bump. Bassitt has a 4.32 ERA with a 4.59 xERA and a 5.04 FIP in his 93.2 innings pitched. He’s hit the skids again recently, allowing 17 runs in his last 11.2 innings of work. He couldn’t even turn it around against the A’s in his last start, giving up four runs on five hits in five innings. Bassitt has had starts with seven, eight, and nine runs allowed this season. He’s also clustered the 16 home runs he has allowed. So, your guess is as good as mine as to how he’ll pitch today, but the recent returns haven’t looked great.
This is a weird handicap to say the least.
Houston Astros (-125, 9.5) at St. Louis Cardinals
The Astros did ultimately win yesterday, but it was not the way I would have expected. Cristian Javier was terrible, as both teams exploded offensively, but it was the Astros bullpen that locked it down better than the St. Louis pen for the 10-7 decision. Javier looks broken, which I can expand upon heading into his next start, but this one is all about J.P. France and Adam Wainwright.
Hefty line movement has come in on the Astros today to drive them into a clear favorite in support of France, who, honestly, doesn’t really deserve the support in my estimation. He has a 3.54 ERA with a 4.38 xERA and a 4.96 FIP in his 53.1 innings pitched. There are a lot of negative regression signs in the profile, most notably, an 83% LOB% with just an 18.8% K%. France has given up nine homers on the season in his nine starts and has allowed at least one in seven of his nine outings.
I guess this just speaks to the complete lack of confidence in Wainwright, who has been awful this season. He has a 6.56 ERA with a 6.82 xERA and a 5.37 FIP In his 46.2 innings pitched since coming off of an injury suffered in the World Baseball Classic. Waino has only struck out 10.9% of opposing batters and has given up eight homers, including five in his last three starts. He’s given up at least three runs in every start and just gave up seven runs on 11 hits to the Cubs over in London.
It should be a good evening for hitting in St. Louis with temps in the 90s and humid conditions. It certainly was a good day for hitting yesterday. France and Wainwright are going to allow a lot of balls in play and I think these two offenses can have success. With the full-game total creeping up to 10, we’re seeing some 6s pop for the 1st 5. That’s a hefty number, but the weather is definitely conducive to hitting and so are these two pitchers in my opinion.
DraftKings is still dealing 9.5, while a lot of the market has gone to 10. The Cardinals bullpen is on shaky ground here as well, so I’m alright with the full game over the 1st 5, as Houston’s pen also has a 4.86 ERA in the month of June.
Pick: Over 9.5 (-115)
TL;DR Recap
Red Sox -110
HOU/STL Over 9.5 (-115)
