MLB Best Bets Today: Odds, predictions and picks for Saturday, June 3rd

By Adam Burke  ( 

June 3, 2023 11:28 AM

MLB schedule today has 16 games

We’ve got a really busy Saturday in the baseball world, as the Rays and Red Sox will play two at Fenway Park and the other 28 teams are scheduled for just one game, giving up a 16-game slate. There are only two really early games, with the rest starting at 4:10 p.m. ET or later, so bettors don’t have to rush as much as they have with most Saturdays.

That being said, there are a lot of games and a lot of things to get to, so here are some thoughts for June 3.

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Here are some thoughts on the June 3 card (odds from DraftKings): 

St. Louis Cardinals (-145, 9) at Pittsburgh Pirates

Southpaw Jordan Montgomery comes into this start at PNC Park with a 4.48 ERA and a 3.92 FIP over his 60.1 innings of work. He has a .337 BABIP against with just a 37.1% Hard Hit%, so he’s fallen on the wrong side of batted ball luck a bit, especially given that he hasn’t posted a HH% of 40% or higher since April 18. He has, however, allowed 20 barrels and a 10.3% Barrel%, so he’s left some mistakes in the middle of the plate.

Most notably, Montgomery has allowed six of his seven homers over his last five starts. He didn’t give one up last time out against Cleveland, but it’s the Guardians and they couldn’t hit a home run from second base. Montgomery has pretty decent peripherals aside from the Barrel%, but that is a big factor in his 4.54 xERA. 

The Pirates have done better against lefties than righties this season, so Montgomery will have to locate well here, especially because the Pirates have one of the lower K% marks against LHP this season.

This will be the fifth start of the season for Luis Ortiz, who has a 4.35 ERA with a 5.42 FIP. He has 14 strikeouts against 11 walks in 20.2 innings and just allowed a couple of homers last time out against the Mariners. His peripherals are not nearly as good as Montgomery’s and he’s allowed a 46.5% Hard Hit% and a 12.7% Barrel% in 71 batted ball events. He, like many pitchers, had a season-high SwStr% against the Mariners last time out, but still allowed the two homers and walked four over five innings.

Montgomery looks to be the more trustworthy of the two, and the Cardinals have the more consistent lineup, so this line looks pretty fair and we can move on.

Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals (-110, 8.5)

The Phillies had TBD listed as the starter here for a little while, but it will be Matt Strahm and Johnny Wholestaff taking the mound against MacKenzie Gore and the Nationals. The Phillies will go with a bullpen game after deciding that no internal options jumped off the page. Cristopher Sanchez is on a regular turn at Triple-A and just threw six shutout innings last time out, but he was not viewed as being a viable option.

Strahm has been really solid this season with a 3.20 ERA and a 2.87 FIP, leaving many to wonder why he was taken out of the rotation at all. He has worked 39.1 innings, but hasn’t been used as a full-time starter since May 2. He has allowed four runs in his last three appearances, with the most recent coming two days ago when he threw two innings against the Mets. I’d expect one or two innings here before he gives way to lesser pitchers.

Dylan Covey threw 30 pitches last Sunday and is still on the roster, so I presume he’s going to see some work in this one. Jeff Hoffman, another former starter, threw 41 pitches last Sunday, so it’ll be some combo of those two in bulk work in all likelihood. Neither guy is any good.

Gore, meanwhile, has been really solid with a 3.57 ERA and a 3.95 xERA in his 11 starts over 58 innings. His 83.3% LOB% is likely due for some regression, but he has struck out 29.8% of opposing batters on the season. Of course, he’s also walked 11.3% of them and has a .333 BABIP against, so he’s had lots of traffic out there on the basepaths.

Still, he hasn’t allowed more than four runs in any start and that only happened twice. He has held the opposition to a .248 wOBA with men in scoring position, so I do think that’s an area that we’ll have to watch, but the Phillies are a bottom-five offense against lefties, so maybe this isn’t the spot where that happens.

No interest in this game with the Phillies throwing the kitchen sink at the Nationals and Washington laying a price with Gore.

Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds (-110, 10)

I’ve been wrong about a few too many things this season and Graham Ashcraft is one of them. The big right-hander has a 5.55 ERA with a 5.02 xERA and a 4.58 FIP in his 58.1 innings of work for the Reds. He’s seen a mild K% increase from 15.3% to 18.2%, but his BB% is up from 6.5% to 9.3% and his HR/FB% has jumped 1.2% from last season.

Ashcraft’s GB% is down over 6% from last season, but his BABIP is about the same, which is a problem given the HR increase. He had a 4.89 ERA with a 4.02 xERA and a 4.21 FIP last season. I expected him to take a step forward, but he hasn’t. He’s also had some huge blow-ups. He had a 2.00 ERA with a 3.57 FIP over his first six starts and I got excited that maybe the breakout was happening. Well, over his last six starts, he has a 9.21 ERA with a 5.48 FIP and has allowed a 45.1% Hard Hit%.

I’m not a believer in Colin Rea or the Brewers. They had one of the league’s worst offenses in May and Rea has a 4.89 ERA with a 4.45 xERA and a 5.37 FIP in his 42.1 innings of work. He’s given up eight homers in eight starts and one relief appearance, which is a lot for a guy with a 50.4% GB%. He’s allowed at least four runs four times over his eight starts. This will also be just his fourth road start and it comes on a warm day in Cincinnati where the ball carries quite well.

Rea has actually allowed a 47.8% Hard Hit% over his last three starts against the Royals, Astros, and Giants. He only has two starts with a double-digit SwStr% and has an 8.7% mark for the season. Ashcraft actually has a double-digit SwStr% in three of his last five starts and he was at 9.8% last start.

I’m not a huge fan of what Ashcraft has done recently, but I’m not a fan of Rea and the Brewers are a fraudulent division leader. 

Pick: Reds -110

Atlanta Braves (-205, 9) at Arizona Diamondbacks

Spencer Strider gets a really interesting test here against an Arizona lineup that doesn’t strike out a whole lot. Strider has a 2.97 ERA with a 2.36 FIP in his 63.2 innings of work. He’s struck out 106 batters and walked 22, as 41.6% of hitters have taken the long, slow walk back to the dugout. Strider has not struck out fewer than 30% of batters faced in any start this season.

We’ll see if that streak comes to an end with the D-Backs, who have the fifth-lowest K% in baseball. The gaudy strikeout numbers are nice, but Strider’s command has been a touch off lately. He’s allowed four homers over his last three starts after allowing two homers in his first eight outings. He actually has a 4.01 ERA in his last six starts. A 66.7% LOB% is a big reason why and that’s way too low relative to his strikeout numbers. I’d expect some positive regression in that department going forward.

The Diamondbacks will send out a very different starter in Ryne Nelson, who has just a 15.2% K% over 57 innings pitched. He has 37 strikeouts against 18 walks and has given up eight homers in 11 starts. Strider’s lowest strikeout output in a start is seven. Nelson has topped out at six. That isn’t really a great recipe for facing the Braves.

This is a steep price to pay, but it seems like Atlanta or nothing. I won’t be invested, but I’ll be curious to see if Strider has the same strikeout upside here as usual.

Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres (-175, 8)

Drew Smyly and Yu Darvish are listed for this matchup at Petco Park, as Smyly looks to get back on track after his second-worst start of the season. Apparently there’s something about the Reds that doesn’t fit with him because he’s allowed 12 of his 24 runs in two starts against Cincinnati. He allowed seven over 4.2 innings on April 3 and five runs over 4.2 innings last time out on May 28.

In between, Smyly posted a 2.13 ERA with a 3.27 FIP over nine starts, including two against the Dodgers, starts against top-five offenses against lefties in the Nationals and Marlins, and starts against the Mets, Astros, Padres, and Mariners. For the season, Smyly has allowed just a 28.5% Hard Hit% and the crazy thing is that his HH% in the two starts against the Reds has been 21.1% and 22.2%. He’s really done an excellent job of limiting hard contact against and also has a solid 22% K% to go with an excellent 5.8% BB%.

Like Smyly, Darvish is in a spot where he needs to bounce back. He allowed seven runs on seven hits in just 2.2 innings to the Yankees last time out. Darvish has now allowed homers in four straight starts after not allowing one in his first five starts on U.S. soil, with a tough outing in Mexico City on April 30 as the only blemish. In five May starts, Darvish allowed a 43% Hard Hit% with a 91.4 mph average exit velocity. He’s allowed five barrels in his last two starts and seven in his last five.

A seven-run blow-up like that would hurt anybody, but Darvish had allowed seven runs on 12 hits in 11.1 innings in the two starts prior against the Royals and Nationals, so it seems like he’s having a little bit of a command hiccup right now.

The Padres have a 105 wRC+ against lefties, but they don’t stand out all that much in that split with a .322 wOBA. The Cubs only have a 99 wRC+ against righties, but Darvish is struggling a little bit and I’m not sure he deserves to be this big of a favorite.

Smyly has allowed a .271 wOBA the first time through and a .256 wOBA the second time through. Darvish, meanwhile, has allowed a .266 wOBA the first time through and a .376 wOBA the second time through. Smyly isn’t a bad 1st 5 look. The Padres have had one of the best bullpens in baseball over the last two weeks, while the Cubs are a borderline bottom-five bullpen.

Pick: Cubs 1st 5 (+145)

Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox (-120, 9) Game 1

Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox Game 2

I’ll be passing on both games of the double dip here, as the Rays have all sorts of question marks on the pitching side here. It is Josh Fleming’s turn in the rotation and he may end up getting a straight start instead of using an opener since doubleheaders tend to be an “all hands on deck” approach. The Rays pen has been pretty bad for a while now as well and doubleheaders definitely expose that. 


Last night’s game was rained out, so Garrett Whitlock got pushed back to Game 1, with Game 2 still up in the air, but it appears that Corey Kluber will get the call coming off of the paternity list. The Rays will send Trevor Kelley in Game 1 as the opener to Fleming, followed by Tyler Glasnow in Game 2.

No interest in either of these games.

Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox (-165, 8.5)

Michael Lorenzen and Dylan Cease are listed for this AL Central showdown, as Cease and the Sox are a sizable favorite in this one. Lorenzen has allowed 16 of his 18 earned runs in three of his eight starts, so he’s either been pretty bad or pretty good. He gave up two unearned runs over 6.2 solid innings against the White Sox last time out after allowing five runs on five hits in 5.2 innings to the Royals in his previous start.

Lorenzen has a 42.8% Hard Hit% and a 10.1% Barrel% in 138 batted balls this season. He’s allowed 19 hard-hit balls in his last 34 batted ball events and gave up six barrels in that start against the Royals, so his command profile is a little bit shaky right now.

Cease isn’t the same pitcher that we’re used to seeing either, as he has a 4.88 ERA with a 4.11 FIP and a 4.63 xERA in his 62.2 innings of work. He has a double-digit BB% again this season, but his K% is down 6.2% from where it was last season. His batting average against is 50 points higher and his BABIP is 38 points higher. His LOB% is 16.3% lower and he’s halfway to last season’s home run total in 120 fewer innings.

Cease has allowed a 49.2% Hard Hit% for the season and has had three different starts in which he’s allowed at least 10 hard-hit balls, which is really difficult to do with all the strikeouts and walks to limit the number of batted ball events. Outside of one outlier against Houston on May 13, he’s allied a HH% of at least 45% in the other 11 starts.

The Tigers don’t make a lot of hard contact, but they do work counts and draw walks, so if they can capitalize on those situations with men on base, they could do some damage here against Cease. I just don’t have a lot of faith in Lorenzen. Maybe the over should be the play, but these are two bottom-five lineups against righties, so that makes it tough.

Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers (-145, 9)

Bryan Woo gets the call for the Mariners in place of Marco Gonzales, who appears to be headed to the IL. Woo will make the jump directly from Double-A for this one after posting a 2.05 ERA with a 2.83 FIP in 44 innings of work. He’s struck out 59 and only walked 12 with just two homers allowed.

The 23-year-old Woo is only in his second season of pro ball after getting taken in the sixth round of the 2021 Draft. Woo was at Cal Poly and struggled through his 2021 season and actually needed Tommy John surgery, but the Mariners took a chance on him and he’s climbed the system ranks quickly with a 3.21 ERA in 101 minor league innings. As with Bryce Miller, the Mariners have another power arm that likes to work high in the zone with the fastball and has a good slider. He’ll flash a changeup as well. Things are really exciting for the Mariners right now.

Texas will send out Andrew Heaney in the midst of a heater. He’s allowed just two earned runs over his last three starts with 17 strikeouts against five walks. He’s got a 3.76 ERA for the season, but a 4.84 FIP that is a byproduct of allowing nine homers in 10 starts. He’s allowed two in his last four starts, as he’s made some meaningful adjustments of late. For the season, Heaney has only allowed a 33.1% Hard Hit%, though he gave up some pretty loud contact last time out against Baltimore.

I’m not sure how Woo will fare and I think he has a lot of upside, so I can’t take Texas here, even though Seattle is awful against lefties and Heaney has been throwing the ball well of late. The Rangers do have one of the game’s top offenses against righties, so it is a stiff opening test for Woo, who is making a sizable leap from Double-A, but the Mariners are doing an excellent job with in-house development of starting pitchers.

Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros (-180, 8.5)

The Angels and Astros continue their weekend set with a clash between Patrick Sandoval and Cristian Javier. We’ve got some really quality pitching matchups on this Saturday card and this is one of them. That being said, I hate to say that I have some reservations about Sandoval.

He’s one of my favorite pitchers to look at for some betting value, but his K% this season is down to 15.1%, which is 8.6% below last season and 7.6% below his career average. Despite a decrease in K%, he still has a similar BB% at 9.2% to last season. The biggest difference for him is that he has a .257 BABIP against, which looks more like his 2020 and 2021 seasons than last year’s balloon number at .316.

He’s riding the wave of a 34.1% Hard Hit% to that low BABIP, but he did have a 42.4% HH% in his five May starts, so I’m concerned that we may start to see a correction in some of his numbers. You have to miss bats and strike guys out to get that increased margin for error so that you aren’t always dependent on batted ball variance or your fielders. Sandoval just doesn’t have that in his back pocket right now. His K% in five May starts was just 12.7%.

Strikeouts are not a problem for Javier, who has a 26.8% K% on the season. He’s still down over 6% from last season’s 33.2% mark, but he’s also shaved 2.5% off of his BB%, so that’s a solid trade-off. He’s got a 2.97 ERA with a 4.18 xERA and a 3.82 FIP. As an extreme fly ball guy, Javier has allowed nine homers in 11 starts. He’s also allowed 20 barrels with a 12% Barrel%. That’s why xERA isn’t a huge fan of his performance.

Despite some of those concerns and red flags, Javier has not allowed more than three runs in a start since April 11 and has only done that once in 10 starts. This looks to be a pretty fair price.

Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins (-135, 7.5)

Logan Allen and Sonny Gray are the listed starters here as the Guardians and Twins keep duking it out in the AL Central pillow fight. I’ve had some concerns about Allen as the season has gone along, but he was masterful last time out against Baltimore with seven shutout innings and 10 strikeouts. Prior to that, Allen only had 17 strikeouts in 21.2 innings and had started to allow a good bit of hard contact.

Well, he only allowed three hard-hit balls to the Orioles in his best start of the season to date. I’m not sure how he’ll follow it up against the Twins, but Minnesota is the second lineup to see him for the second time. The White Sox saw him in back-to-back starts on May 18 and 23 and had four runs (three earned) on seven hits the second time around after being limited to one run on seven hits in the first start.

The Twins are awful against lefties with a bottom-five offense and nearly a 28% K%. Allen allowed two runs on seven hits with just three strikeouts in the first meeting. He didn’t locate very well in that start, so we’ll see how he adjusts here.

Gray has a 1.94 ERA with a 3.33 xERA and a 2.20 FIP in his 60.1 innings of work on the season. He’s struck out 27.6% of opposing batters, but has allowed a 9.6% BB%. He’s got a .306 BABIP against, but an 80.6% LOB%, so he’s stranded those walks and those guys that have reached base via a hit.

However, he’s allowed a 44.6% Hard Hit% for the season and a 52.6% HH% in his last four starts. It looks as though he’s building up towards either a rough stretch or a really bad start. He gave up 11 hard-hit balls last time out against the Astros on top of eight in his previous start against the Giants. Gray also has just a 29/14 K/BB ratio with men on base with a .242 wOBA against and a 15/11 K/BB ratio with RISP and a .221 wOBA against. His BABIP against with men on is .261 and it is .196 with men in scoring position.

If Cleveland’s offense was better, they might be worth a look here, but Gray is a fade candidate going forward if this command profile continues.

Toronto Blue Jays (-115, 8.5) at New York Mets

Jose Berrios and Tylor Megill square off in this one, as the Jays are slight road favorites against the Mets. Berrios comes in with a 3.86 ERA and a 3.78 FIP over his 65.1 innings of work. He’s allowed three or fewer runs in eight of his last nine starts and has really done well to get his two ugly starts from early this season mostly off of his ERA.

Berrios allowed 12 earned runs over his first 9.2 innings, but has only allowed 16 earned runs in nine starts since then, good for a 2.59 ERA with a 3.91 FIP. He does have an 87% LOB% in that span that is ripe for regression, but after what we saw from him last season, Toronto has to be beyond thrilled with these developments.

He also has just a 28.4% Hard Hit% in those last nine starts. He’s allowed 13 barrels, but none in his last two outings. If we go back eight starts instead of nine, his HH% drops to 25.4% and he hasn’t had one higher than 35.3% in that span with some good lineups in there.

Megill has had far less success, posting a 4.67 ERA with a 5.96 xERA, a 5.28 FIP, and a 5.09 xFIP in his 54 innings pitched. He’s got a lackluster 17.6% with an outright poor BB% of 11.1% and he’s allowed six runs in back-to-back starts. Megill has a 37.4% Hard Hit% against, so he’s gotten a little bit unlucky at times, but he’s at 45.8% over his last three starts, so he’s certainly had some more command troubles.

Berrios has been more consistent with his swinging strike rate and also gets more chases outside of the zone. He’s also allowed a lot more soft contact. Toronto should be able to play from in front here and take a lead into the late innings. Because DraftKings is 15 cents different between 1st 5 and full game, I'm going with the full game here, but if you can find -120 or better on the 1st 5, that may be a better a route. That said, Toronto's pen is top-five in fWAR over the last 14 days.

Pick: Blue Jays -115

Colorado Rockies at Kansas City Royals (-150, 9.5)

This is an awfully big favorite role for the Royals, who actually got a solid start from Jordan Lyles yesterday and still squandered it in a 7-2 loss to the Rockies. It will be Daniel Lynch and Austin Gomber today and this is a line I’m having a hard time wrapping my head around. Lynch is only making his second MLB start of the season. He allowed two runs on five hits in 5.1 innings to the Nationals with six strikeouts against three walks.

In five minor league starts, Lynch had a 3.98 ERA in 20.1 innings of work with a 24/4 K/BB ratio and threw six shutout innings in his final rehab tune-up. For his career, Lynch owns a 5.27 ERA with a 4.64 FIP in 205 innings pitched across 43 starts. He made 27 starts last season and had a 5.13 ERA with a 5.07 xERA and a 4.63 FIP in 131.2 innings of work.

The reason why this line is so high is because of Gomber, who sports a 7.00 ERA with a 7.15 xERA and a 6.13 FIP over 54 innings pitched. His peripherals are all really bad with a 14.3% K%, a 9.2% BB%, a 62.5% LOB%, and 12 home runs allowed. Seven of his 11 starts have come at Coors Field, so that’s part of it, but he still has a 4.35 ERA and a .324 wOBA against on the road in 20.2 innings. That’s still way better than the .421 wOBA and 8.64 ERA in 33.1 innings at home.

By no means are these numbers good, but since April 24, he does have a 4.78 ERA with a 5.56 FIP, so he’s been better recently than he was at the start of the year. He’s allowed 20 earned runs over seven starts and has gotten a lot of run support in that span, as he has a 4-0 record. Over his last four starts (all at home), he’s allowed six homers and 17 runs.

At least he’s on the road here, so he has a chance, but the Royals, who hit the ball really hard with minimal return on investment, are close to a league average offense against lefties, while being among the league’s worst against righties. Maybe this is a spot where they can muster some measure of success.

All in all, it may look too good to be true on Colorado or it may simply be a bad line. I don’t know for sure, but I can’t make a play on this game.

Oakland A’s at Miami Marlins (-205, 8)

Luis Medina and Eury Perez are listed for this one, as we get another game between these two teams with a pitcher who doesn’t really know where the ball is going. That could apply to both Edward Cabrera and Hogan Harris yesterday, but especially applies to Medina here. In five MLB appearances, Medina has a 6.83 ERA with a 7.33 FIP in 27.2 innings of work. He’s given up 10 home runs already and at least two in four of his five appearances.

Medina has only walked 10 in 27.2 innings, which is actually a bit of a win for him given that he walked 15 in 13.1 innings at Triple-A earlier this season and 62 in 92.2 innings at Double-A in 2022. He’s just not a good pitcher and we’re seeing that play out at the MLB level in a big way.

Perez is just starting what should be a promising MLB career, but he, too, has had some control problems against big league hitters. Perez has a 2.84 ERA, but a 4.91 FIP and a 4.78 xFIP over four starts and 19 innings. He’s given up 10 walks against 19 strikeouts in 19 innings of work against the Reds, Nationals, Rockies, and Angels. He’s coming off of five shutout innings against the Angels, but he did walk four in that start.

He is back at home now in a park that suppresses offense, so we’ll see if that ends up helping him in this start. He’s also facing an Oakland lineup that has cooled off considerably on the road in recent weeks. It may look like a big number, but Medina really isn’t worth betting on in any context.

New York Yankees at Los Angeles Dodgers (-110, 9)

You don’t often see this kind of line in a Gerrit Cole start, but there are some reasons why this game is lined as a virtual pick ‘em across the market. The Dodgers are sending Michael Grove to the hill fresh off of the IL. Grove had an 8.44 ERA with a 4.65 FIP in four starts before getting injured, as a big blow-up against Arizona with nine runs allowed on 12 hits over 3.1 innings really skewed the numbers.

Grove made two rehab starts and allowed two runs on two solo homers and six other hits with a 14/1 K/BB ratio, so he certainly looked game-ready coming out of those outings. The Yankees did welcome back Giancarlo Stanton, Anthony Rizzo, and Josh Donaldson to the lineup yesterday, so they’re back to almost full strength now, which means Grove gets a much better version of New York than we’ve seen in a while.

Anytime Cole is priced this low, you can’t help but notice. He’s got a 2.93 ERA with a 3.99 xERA and a 3.69 FIP over his 73.2 innings of work. His K% is down significantly this season at 26.2%, over 6% lower than last season, but he’s got an 11.3% HR/FB%, so you can’t really get too bent about the lack of punchies when he’s giving up fewer homers. 

That said, Cole has had a couple of rocky outings back-to-back here. He’s allowed 11 runs (10 earned) on 10 hits in his last 11 innings and he’s given up eight homers in his last five starts. His Hard Hit% is up to 40.2% and his Barrel% is up to 9.3%, which is why xERA is frowning a little bit upon his season.

I fully expected to go into this handicap feeling like I had to take Cole at this price point, but that is not the case. I’m staying away from this one.

Baltimore Orioles at San Francisco Giants (-135, 8)

Kyle Bradish and Alex Cobb wrap up today’s card with interleague action at Oracle Park, as the Giants look to get back to .500. The Orioles won a gritty 3-2 game yesterday and employed the services of Felix Bautista and Yennier Cano to secure the win, which is always a starting point when looking at the Orioles for the full game. They hadn’t pitched for two days, so they’re available today, but it still merits a mention.

We’ll see if Bradish puts the O’s in a position to deploy arguably the best 1-2 relief punch in baseball. He has a 3.89 ERA with a 4.64 xERA and a 4.21 FIP in his 44 innings of work covering nine starts. He’s got a low strikeout rate, but the rest of his peripherals look fine and he’s rounding into form after having the start of his season cut short by a comebacker off of his foot.

Bradish has allowed just six earned runs over his last four starts and four of them came in one game against the Yankees. It has been hard to judge his season because he did give up a lot of hard contact early in the year and still has his moments now, but it seems like he’s closer to being where he should be as he distances himself from the injury and a few rocky starts afterwards.

Cobb has a 3.05 ERA with a 3.67 FIP and a 3.38 xFIP in his 62 innings of work. He’s got an 83.1% LOB%, so he’s done an excellent job of stranding runners this season, despite a .342 BABIP and a 46.3% Hard Hit%. There were more negative regression signs before he allowed seven runs over four innings against the Brewers last time out, as he had a 2.17 ERA with a 3.38 FIP and an 88.6% LOB%.

Up until that last start, Cobb had not allowed more than three runs in any of his 10 starts. So, maybe the Orioles are catching him at the right time. He’s been able to work around the hard contact with a 60.6% GB%, but he has given up three homers in his last two starts and his GB% is just 48.8% in his last three starts, so he’s starting to elevate the baseball a little bit.

Bradish is a guy with reverse platoon splits to his name, as he allowed just four of his 17 HR to lefties last season and held them to a .303 wOBA, while righties had a .350 wOBA. So far this season, lefties have a .290 wOBA off of him, while righties have a .331 wOBA. Righties have hit four of the five homers he has allowed.

I think the Orioles are worth a shot here. Even though Bautista and Cano worked yesterday, Felix has done very well on back-to-back days in 21 appearances, holding opposing batters to a .123/.256/.215 slash, while Yennier has held batters to a .136/.174/.318 slash. With some regression signs in the profile for Cobb and some clear signs that he’s not keeping the ball down the same way, I like Baltimore at a dog price.

Pick: Orioles +115

TL;DR Recap

Reds -110

Cubs 1st 5 (+145)

Blue Jays -115

Orioles +115

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