MLB Best Bets Today: Odds, predictions and picks for Friday, August 11th

By Adam Burke  ( 

August 11, 2023 01:22 PM

MLB schedule today has 15 games

It’s Friday and that means we have 15 games with all 30 teams in action across Major League Baseball. It also means that the card is full of night games. We’ve got seven interleague series this weekend as well, so a lot of teams that don’t normally see each other will duke it out on the diamond. We’ve also got some very interesting storylines, so it should be a fun night for baseball fans and bettors.

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Here are some thoughts on the August 11 card (odds from DraftKings):

Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates (-115, 9)

We start with an interesting storyline in that the Pirates are favored over the Reds with Andrew Abbott on the hill for the visitors. Abbott comes into this start with a 2.93 ERA, 3.72 xERA, and a 3.97 FIP in his 70.2 innings of work. He’s struck out over a batter per inning and has been good in nine of his 12 starts, but his last two have been duds.

Abbott has allowed 10 runs on 14 hits in nine innings with eight strikeouts and eight walks. There were some significant regression signs in the profile that have now come to the forefront with some major location mistakes against the Cubs and Nationals. The thing is that the Pirates have just a 74 wRC+ against lefties in the second half with a .281 wOBA. They have drawn a good walk rate, but haven’t hit for any power whatsoever in that split.

Johan Oviedo gets the call for Pittsburgh with a 4.18 ERA, 4.37 xERA, and a 4.16 FIP in 131.1 innings of work. He’s got a bit of an elevated walk rate and a below average strikeout rate, but he’s eaten up some solid innings for the Buccos this year. He’s also throwing the ball really well of late with two runs allowed on 11 hits in his last 20 innings of work. That’s probably the rationale behind the line move today to make the Pirates a favorite. There are still some regression signs for Abbott and Oviedo is throwing the ball really well. He’s only allowed 16 hard-hit balls in his last three outings as well.

The Reds offense is also in the tank in the second half. They have an 81 wRC+ against righties and a .301 wOBA. Maybe the Under 9 is the play here. I expected to go against the line move and take Cincinnati, but I don’t see any compelling reasons to distrust the influential money that moved the number. The Reds have also lost eight of nine this month.

Atlanta Braves (-180, 9.5) at New York Mets

Charlie Morton and Tylor Megill are the listed hurlers for this one. Morton has a 3.86 ERA with a 4.91 xERA and a 4.09 FIP in his 123.2 innings of work. The 39-year-old right-hander has not been very sharp lately, though, as he’s allowed 16 runs in his last four starts. He was terrific against the White Sox coming out of the All-Star Break with seven shutout innings, but he’s got a 17/15 K/BB ratio in those last four outings with 16 runs on 22 hits and a 45.2% Hard Hit%.

His velocity looks fine and I don’t see anything mechanically that would point to a potential injury, but anytime you fail to locate pitches to that extreme, it is hard not to think about something going on. He did have his lowest curveball spin rate since early April last time out, but I’m not terribly concerned just yet. It seems to just be a question of confidence or maybe a bit of natural regression.

Megill comes in with a 5.45 ERA, 6.37 xERA, and a 5.24 FIP in 76 innings of work. He’s got pretty poor K/BB numbers this season and has also allowed a 41.5% Hard Hit%, including a 60% HH% in his first start back six days ago. Megill had gone about seven weeks between MLB starts and allowed five runs on nine hits, including a couple of homers to the Orioles. In six rehab starts, he had an 8.67 ERA with a 14/11 K/BB ratio over 27 innings against Triple-A hitters.

Megill was undergoing a major mechanical change to his release point and found a little extra velo in the minors, but the results didn’t really follow suit. His first MLB start didn’t shed much light on the effectiveness of those two developments. I don’t have anything here. I gave some thought to the Over 9.5 with the wind blowing out a little bit at first pitch, but ultimately passed.

San Diego Padres (-162, 9) at Arizona Diamondbacks

Blake Snell has a 2.61 ERA with a 3.86 xERA and a 3.67 FIP as he goes into this start against the slumping Diamondbacks. The Padres opted not to be a seller at the Trade Deadline and have responded by going 3-5 in August. They’re 0-10 in extra-inning games and 6-18 in one-run games. They are now 55-60, but have a Pythagorean Win-Loss of 63-52, so this has been a frustrating season in a lot of ways.

One persistent bright spot has been Snell, who has a 1.03 ERA with a 2.60 FIP in his last 14 starts over 79 innings of work. He’s got a 116/45 K/BB ratio in that span and has only allowed a 24.5% Hard Hit% with a 3.8% Barrel%. You can’t ask for a better run than that and he’s gone 7-2 in that stretch.

Recently, though, his walk rate issues have returned. He’s walked 20 batters in his last four starts. He’s only allowed 15 hits and one homer, so he’s only allowed six total runs, with three of them coming last time out against the Dodgers. The D-Backs are a bottom-10 offense against lefties in the second half, so he has a good chance of continuing his torrid pace.

Arizona will counter with Ryne Nelson, who has a 5.16 ERA with a 5.04 xERA and a 4.99 FIP in his 122 innings of work. Nelson only has 80 strikeouts over 23 starts and is the definition of a pitch-to-contact guy. He’s allowed 20 homers on the season and 138 hits, so he’s made it very difficult to put up a lot of good games. That was evident last time out against Minnesota with six runs allowed on eight hits.

It’s tough to do much with this one, as the Padres are heavy favorites behind Snell and with Arizona’s freefall, but I’m not sure either team would be worth betting as a favorite of this size.

Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers (-298, 8.5)

The Dodgers were 2-1 winners last night, so Colorado easily covered the +2.5 and even covered the +1.5 if you opted to go that route. Los Angeles is a big favorite again, albeit not as big, with Lance Lynn on the hill. Lynn has a 6.11 ERA with a 4.87 xERA and a 5.27 FIP for the season, as he has allowed 32 home runs to set a new career-high. He’s made two starts for the Dodgers and allowed four homers, but four runs on nine hits in 13 innings.

All of the runs have come on solo homers against the A’s and Padres. Somebody like a Nolan Jones might be a good home run player prop guy to focus on today as a means of betting this game. The Dodgers are making some changes with Lynn and really encouraging him to throw more fastballs, so the homers will keep coming. It’s just a matter of avoiding all of the other stuff. He’s also on a much better defensive team, so that should help his BABIP and some other metrics.

Austin Gomber goes for the Rockies tonight, as the Dodgers draw yet another southpaw. They rank fourth in wOBA at .355 and have a 124 wRC+ in that split for the second half, but still felt they needed to upgrade the platoon bats at the Trade Deadline. It didn’t help much yesterday against Ty Blach and Gomber is actually throwing the ball well right now. He’s allowed 16 runs (14 earned) in 48 innings over his last eight starts with a 2.63 ERA and a 3.43 FIP. He isn’t missing many bats, but he’s had a lot of positive regression with balls in play.

That’s not a profile I’m interested in against the Dodgers, though, as he’s still allowed a 41.9% Hard Hit% in that span and he’s really outpitching his true talent level at this point.

Cleveland Guardians at Tampa Bay Rays (-205, 8.5)

The Guardians and Rays fire up a weekend set at Tropicana Field and Cleveland will face old friend Aaron Civale in tonight’s tilt. Civale’s first start with the Rays was a dud, as he allowed three runs on nine hits in 4.1 innings of work. It was against a Tigers team that had more exposure to him than most, but Cleveland obviously has the most exposure of all. 

Civale gave up nine hard-hit balls and a barrel in that start. His 50% HH% tied for his second-highest of the season and he just didn’t look very comfortable. We’ll see if he settles in more here after being able to take a few more days to get acclimated to his new team and teammates. He’s having a good season with a 2.55 ERA and a 3.42 FIP and the Guardians offense is awful, so he has a good chance at bouncing back.

Also, at some point, MLB has to make a call on Jose Ramirez’s appeal. With Josh Naylor still out, recently-signed Kole Calhoun is batting fourth or fifth because the pickings are so slim for the team. Oscar Gonzalez wasn’t good enough to get called up until Naylor’s injury, but he’s batting fourth. This is just a bad offense.

That means Xzavion Curry will have his work cut out for him if run support is hard to come by. Of course, the Rays did absolutely nothing for eight innings against Matthew Liberatore yesterday and he had some hideous numbers. Curry has a 2.95 ERA, but a 5.14 xERA and a 4.12 FIP, so there are a ton of regression signs in the profile. He went five innings against the White Sox with two runs on four hits last time out, which is pretty much about the best that the Guardians could ask for.

Nothing on this game, as the Rays deserve to be a big favorite, but aren’t the most trustworthy of teams in that role over the last several weeks.

Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox (-142, 9)

What an awesome pitching matchup this is to see. Chris Sale makes his return to the Red Sox after a prolonged absence and Tarik Skubal will make his seventh start of the season. The quality of pitching around the league is better when these two guys are out there and I’m really excited to see what today’s game holds.

Sale is going to be limited to about four innings today as he comes back for his first MLB start since June 1. It was really ugly early in the year for Sale, as he allowed 22 runs in his first five starts, but then allowed nine runs over a 36-inning stretch in his next six starts before hitting the IL. 

In two rehab starts, Sale looked great with 6.1 scoreless innings and a 10/2 K/BB ratio. Sale had a 28.5% K% before hitting the IL with a strong 6% BB% and had only allowed eight homers in 11 starts. It’d be nice to see him pick up where he left off, though it’s not something I’d be willing to bet on. Sale was still dominant in his second rehab start, but his velo was down, so that’s something to watch.

Skubal has a 3.67 ERA with a 2.30 xERA and a ridiculous 1.37 FIP in his six starts over 27 innings. He hasn’t allowed a homer yet and has a 33/4 K/BB ratio. He’s had two rough starts, both on the road, as he allowed seven runs to the Royals in his first start in nine days after the Break and then gave up four runs to a Marlins team that has crushed lefties all season long. In his four home starts, he hasn’t allowed an earned run. Fenway Park is not Comerica Park, so it will be interesting to see how he fares in this one, but the quality of his stuff looks really good for the most part.

Tough handicap here, but the Tigers and Skubal are definitely getting some respect. The other thing to note about this game is that Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin, and Josh Winckowski have each worked three of the last four days and back-to-back days. John Schreiber has also worked B2B days, so the Red Sox pen is up against it a bit if this is a close game. The Tigers pen is missing closer Jason Foley, who is on the bereavement list. 

The Tigers strike out a lot and Sale, even with diminished velo, still has that filthy slider to fall back on. Neither offense has had much exposure to lefties lately, so the platoon guys are likely to be a bit rusty. The Tigers haven’t drawn a walk in 37 PA against lefties this month and the Red Sox have a .197 wOBA and a 20 wRC+ against lefties in 53 PA. I’ll take a shot with the 1st 5 Under 4.5 at -110 here.

Pick: 1st 5 Under 4.5 (-110)

Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros (-170, 8.5)

Justin Verlander will make his first home start with the Astros since last season in this one, as the Astros are a sizable favorite against the Angels. Verlander’s first start in different shades of orange and blue went well, as he allowed two runs on seven hits over seven innings against the Yankees. He only struck out four and the depressed strikeout rate he’s had this season is still a story to me, but the Astros may figure out how to fix that.

Verlander has a 3.11 ERA with a 3.87 FIP, so the decrease in the K% department hasn’t really impacted him much. He hasn’t allowed more than three runs in a start since June 20 and that was against Houston, which he doesn’t have to worry about anymore. He has a 1.64 ERA in his last eight starts and has only allowed two homers. He does have a 3.40 FIP and a 4.90 xFIP, so there are regression signs in the profile.

It will be Reid Detmers for the Angels, as he has a 4.78 ERA, but a 4.40 xERA and a 3.99 FIP in 105.1 innings of work. He draws a right-handed-heavy Astros bunch here and that might be a good thing for him. In 369 PA against right-handed batters, Detmers has allowed a .234/.314/.389 slash with a .307 wOBA. In 86 PA against lefties, Detmers has allowed a .312/.384/.519 slash with a .389 wOBA.

His K% against righties is 31.2%, which is simply outstanding for a left-handed pitcher. He’s only got an 18.6% K% in that small sample size against lefties. He does have some home/road splits of note. He’s worked 66 innings at home with a 4.36 ERA and a .313 wOBA against compared to a 5.49 ERA and a .339 wOBA against in 39.1 innings on the road. The other big thing for Detmers is the third time through the order penalty, where he’s allowed a .366/.453/.549 slash with a .430 wOBA in 95 batters faced.

Even though the righty splits for Detmers look good, the Astros have a .357 wOBA and a 130 wRC+ against lefties in the second half. That’s enough to keep me off of the 1st 5 Under.

Baltimore Orioles at Seattle Mariners (-142, 7.5)

The Mariners are quietly rolling right now, as they’ve won seven of eight in August and are 17-8 since the All-Star Break. They’ll send out Luis Castillo at T-Mobile Park, which has generally been a good thing. In his career, he has allowed a .186/.237/.325 slash in that ballpark with a 2.39 ERA and a 138/24 K/BB ratio over 109 innings.

This will be his first home start since July 19, as his last three outings have all been on the road, including a seven-run blow-up against the Angels a week ago. Castillo has a 2.79 ERA at home this season with a .264 wOBA against and a 3.40 FIP. Some home cooking should get him back on track after that really bad outing.

The recent returns for Kyle Gibson have been interesting. He has a 4.50 ERA with a 4.25 xERA and a 3.73 FIP in his 140 innings of work for the season, but he’s allowed six runs on 12 hits in his last three starts over 19 innings after running into a really rough patch in late June and on into July. He was having no LOB% luck and wasn’t getting rewarded for having really good control. That seems to have turned now and he’s been a good bit sharper here of late.

The Orioles have also found some more swing and miss for him, as he’s got a 12.9% SwStr% over his last 12 starts. That is particularly relevant against the Mariners, who continue to strike out a lot. They are ninth in wOBA in the second half against righties and have a very good 116 wRC+, but they have a 27.4% K% in that span. Gibson actually has 70 strikeouts in his last 68.1 innings.

I think Gibby’s strikeout prop at 5.5 and the Over at -110 is a little low here. That’s about the only play I would like in this game, as I think it’s lined pretty fairly given Castillo’s home dominance and how the M’s are playing.

New York Yankees at Miami Marlins (-142, 8.5)

The Yankees need a starter today and that man will be Randy Vasquez, as the 24-year-old rookie makes his first MLB start since July 5. He’s allowed two runs on nine hits in 15.1 innings of work with a 10/7 K/BB ratio. He has a 4.76 ERA with a 4.69 FIP in 75.2 innings at Triple-A, but has a huge strikeout rate to go with an elevated walk rate.

In his three MLB starts, he’s allowed a 35.6% Hard Hit% and only one barrel, so I’m guessing that there’s some deception to the profile. His swing and miss upside hasn’t translated from Triple-A to MLB, but he does catch a Miami lineup that only has a .288 wOBA and an 81 wRC+ against righties in the second half. Only the Giants are worse in the wOBA department and only the Giants and Rockies are worse by wRC+. 

The Marlins will send out Jesus Luzardo, who has a 3.52 ERA with a 3.78 xERA and a 3.45 FIP in his 130.1 innings of work this season. His peripherals across the board are quite good and his home splits are exceptionally good. In 78.1 innings over 309 batters faced, Luzardo has allowed a .270 wOBA and has a 2.64 ERA with a 2.78 FIP. The story is much different on the road, where he has allowed a .362 wOBA and has a 4.85 ERA with a 4.45 FIP in 52 innings of work.

Luzardo’s K% at home is 6% higher than it is on the road and sits at 31.4%, so I definitely like this spot for him. The Yankees have been a league-average offense against lefties in the second half by wOBA and have a 106 wRC+, but that’s because of their performance at home. In road games against lefties, they have a .281 wOBA with a 79 wRC+ in the second half.

With no starter officially named here for the Yankees, I can’t advocate this play and I do think the line will go up when Vasquez is officially announced.

Minnesota Twins at Philadelphia Phillies (-162, 9.5)

Dallas Keuchel’s Redemption Tour makes a stop in Pennsylvania as the Twins take on the Phillies. Keuchel allowed one run on eight hits with two walks and zero strikeouts against Arizona in his first MLB start since September 2 of last season. Keuchel has a career 3.97 ERA with a 3.99 FIP in nearly 1,600 career innings, but it got really ugly in 2021 and 2022, as he was a shell of himself and didn’t really stay healthy.

Keuchel went up to Driveline Baseball and worked his way back to the big leagues, as the Twins took a gamble on him after seeing a throwing session. He had a 1.13 ERA in six Triple-A starts with a 28/12 K/BB ratio over 32 innings. He only allowed a 28.6% Hard Hit% to Arizona in that start, so it’s not like he got hit hard. Obviously it would have been nice to see some extra swing and miss in there, but he located fairly well and got out of jams.

The Phillies will roll with Cristopher Sanchez today. He has a 3.44 ERA with a 3.97 xERA and a 4.35 FIP in his 52.1 innings pitched. He has 48 strikeouts against just nine walks, but he did give up six runs on six hits in his most recent start against the Royals. The Twins have a .319 wOBA and a 105 wRC+ in the second half against lefties. They’ve been better against righties, but also struck out a lot more against righties. They only have a .272 BABIP against lefties, so their offensive numbers could be in line for a bump.

Philadelphia, meanwhile, has been a top-five offense against lefties in the second half with a .350 wOBA and a 119 wRC+. So, we’ll see how Keuchel fares in his second start, but I’m trying to be optimistic that he won’t just be a punching bag.

Oakland Athletics (-112, 9) at Washington Nationals

Is Joan Adon the worst starting pitcher in baseball? The betting markets may think so. Depending on the book you cite, this could be just the second time this season that the A’s have been a road favorite and just the fourth time in the last two seasons. It will be Paul Blackburn for the long-way-from-home A’s.

Adon has earned a rotation spot the rest of the way. In 11 MLB innings this season, he has allowed six runs on six hits with an 11/2 K/BB ratio. He had a 4.62 ERA and a 4.71 FIP In 87.2 innings at the Triple-A level. He also had a 7.10 ERA with a 6.01 xERA and a 5.11 FIP in his 64.2 MLB innings last season.

Blackburn is right-handed, which already helps against Washington. He has a 4.35 ERA with a 3.86 xERA and a 3.45 FIP in his 60 innings this season. He’s struck out over a batter per inning and done a good job of home run prevention with only five of them allowed in 11 starts and one relief inning. He has limited the opposition to a .319 wOBA in 37 home innings, but has allowed a .368 road wOBA in 23 innings. 

Blackburn has only allowed three runs on 16 hits in his last three starts over 17.1 innings of work. I can’t fathom taking Oakland in a road favorite role here, even if Blackburn seems to have more promise than Adon. The Washington bullpen is in better shape today, as I’ve been monitoring that throughout the week as well.

Chicago Cubs at Toronto Blue Jays (-155, 9)

Javier Assad gets the start for the Cubs as they head north of the border to take on the Blue Jays. Assad has a 3.35 ERA with a 4.65 xERA and a 4.51 FIP in his 53.2 innings this season. He’s made two starts and 18 relief appearances. He’s gone 3.2 innings in each of his last two appearances, with the most recent one against Atlanta serving as his second start of the year. He’s allowed a total of three runs in his last 26 innings with a 25/12 K/BB ratio.

Assad has allowed a 44.4% Hard Hit% in that span, but has only allowed three barrels, so he’s been pretty effective for the most part. Assad could be piggybacked by Drew Smyly or Caleb Kilian here, which is my concern because I think this line is a little bit too high at the outset. The Blue Jays just scored a total of seven runs against Cleveland over a four-game series. They struck out a lot in that series as well.

Jose Berrios has a 3.38 ERA with a 4.59 xERA and a 3.88 FIP in his 136 innings this season. After a bit of a rough patch in June, he’s allowed a total of nine runs in his last six starts covering 35 innings of work. He’s got a 34/12 K/BB ratio and has allowed a 40.4% Hard Hit% with an 8.5% Barrel%. He’s thrown the ball well and has avoided any of those major command hiccups that he had last season.

I’m going to take a shot with the Cubs today. They have the best wOBA in baseball against righties in the second half at .398 and have a 153 wRC+. They’ve been swinging it really well. The Blue Jays are 17th at .312 with a 98 wRC+, but they’ve been really awful in August against righties with a .281 wOBA and a 77 wRC+. I’m just not convinced they’re all that good of a team.

I am concerned a little bit about who will follow Assad, but the Cubs have a good chance against Berrios given how they’ve performed of late. Chicago’s bullpen is also a little fresher with yesterday’s off day. You can find a few cents better out there at other shops.

Pick: Cubs +130

Milwaukee Brewers (-175, 8.5) at Chicago White Sox

The Brewers and White Sox battle it out as reports swirl that the Brewers are threatening to move out of Milwaukee if government funding and/or taxpayer money isn’t raised to improve American Family Field and the surrounding area. While that has no bearing on this game or how the season plays out, it could be a distraction that players and coaches are asked about.

That might be the only issue today for the Brewers as they send out Corbin Burnes against Chicago. Burnes has a 3.42 ERA with a 3.36 xERA and a 3.86 FIP in his 139.1 innings of work on the year. He’s been extremely good of late as well. Since the start of July, Burnes has a 2.00 ERA with a 2.93 FIP, as he’s allowed just 10 runs on 17 hits in 45 innings. He’s been leveraging his curveball better and has 52 strikeouts in that span, though he’s had some control hiccups in his last couple of starts.

He’s only allowed a 29.6% Hard Hit% and two barrels in that seven-start stretch. The White Sox are 28th in wOBA against righties at .290 in the second half and have an 82 wRC+. They have a 6% BB% that is the among the worst in baseball in that split and have the 11th-highest K%. This should be a really good spot for Burnes.

Michael Kopech will be on the bump for the White Sox here with a 4.43 ERA, 5.63 xERA, and a 6.20 FIP in his 107.2 innings of work. He’s got a 14.2% BB% to go with a 23.7% K% and has had major issues for a while now with his control. Since returning from the IL on July 14, Kopech has allowed 15 runs on 19 hits in 21.2 innings, but he’s walked 18 batters against just 15 strikeouts.

The Brewers haven’t been very good against righties in the second half and are actually 29th in road wOBA against RHP. Only Baltimore is worse in the second half in that stat, so I think it’s a little bit tricky to buy into them today for a run line bet. The White Sox Team Total Under 3.5 might not be a bad way to play this one, but that’s about the closest I’ve got to something.

St. Louis Cardinals (-120, 11) at Kansas City Royals

Adam Wainwright gets the start for the Cardinals and it will be Dylan Coleman for the Royals as the opener. Alec Marsh wound up bulking a bit for the Royals yesterday, so they have a really fresh bullpen in support of Coleman, as this looks like a Johnny Wholestaff sort of day. Angel Zerpa is expected to be active in the game as well.

Coleman has a 10.05 ERA and has allowed 16 runs on 16 hits in 14.1 innings with a 17/14 K/BB ratio, so I’m not exactly sure he’s the type of guy that I’d want to open a ballgame with, but the Royals aren’t playing for anything, so it probably doesn’t matter that much. Zerpa has a 6.75 ERA with a 5.53 xERA and a 5.89 FIP in three appearances this season.

Wainwright has a 7.81 ERA with a 7.64 xERA and a 5.68 FIP in 65.2 innings this season over 14 starts. It is a sad end to a really strong career and one that may ultimately wind up with a plaque in Cooperstown. He needs two more wins to get to 200 and has a sub-3.50 ERA for his career, at least as of now.

Waino has allowed three or more runs in 13 of his 14 starts and four or more runs in nine of 14. He just gave up seven runs to Colorado last time out over just three innings. He hasn’t gotten a win since June 17, so this lost season for the Cardinals now becomes about just making sure Wainwright can get to 200 before riding off into the sunset.

Even though it’s the Royals, it’s hard to love his chances today. Kansas City actually has a .345 wOBA against righties over the first 10 days of August with a 117 wRC+. St. Louis has a .336 wOBA and a 115 wRC+ in that split in August.

Weather could be a factor here as well, as storms will be in the area on a warm, humid day in Kansas City. The total is a big number here at 11. Another game where I just simply don’t like anything enough to play it.

Texas Rangers (-115, 8.5) at San Francisco Giants

Jon Gray and the Rangers are in the Bay Area to take on the Giants this weekend and DraftKings has the highest line on the Rangers, as most shops have this a true moneyline pick ‘em at -105 both ways. San Francisco will counter with opener Scott Alexander and then bulk reliever Ross Stripling.

Gray has a 3.72 ERA with a 4.49 xERA and a 4.26 FIP in his 113.2 innings of work. He’s making his second start since missing a couple of weeks and it has been a struggle for a while. Ever since Gray got a blister in mid-June, he’s not been the same guy. Over his last eight starts, he’s got a 6.30 ERA with a 4.46 FIP and has only 32 strikeouts against 19 walks. He allowed five runs (three earned) on six hits last time out against a Miami team that has major issues with righties. 

Alexander has a 4.01 ERA with a 4.00 xERA and a 3.29 FIP in his 33.2 innings of work over five starts and 35 relief appearances. He failed to record an out as the opener three days ago and allowed three runs on three hits. He’s allowed runs in back-to-back appearances and hasn’t completed a full inning in his last three outings.

Stripling has a 5.21 ERA with a 5.04 xERA and a 5.10 FIP in 67.1 innings this season, but he’s been pretty good lately. Since June 28, Stripling has a 3.34 ERA with a 3.63 FIP over 35 innings of work. He’s made six starts and two bulk relief appearances. He’s allowed two runs on seven hits over his last 9.2 innings of work. Over this 35-inning stretch, he’s only allowed a 34.9% Hard Hit%.

The Rangers bullpen looks to be in very good shape here, as none of the primary relievers have been used the last three days. The Giants pen is in good shape in that regard as well, but they’ve lost four of the last five games and relievers have had all of the decisions. Texas has been on a heater, but Gray doesn’t strike me as very trustworthy. Today’s card has a ton of games and a ton of intrigue, but I’m just not seeing much in the form of wagers.

TL;DR Recap

DET/BOS 1st 5 Under 4.5 (-110)

Cubs +130

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