MLB Best Bets & Props: Expert picks for Sunday, July 16th

July 16, 2023 07:04 AM

Best Bets on Today's 15-Game MLB Schedule

The 2023 MLB season is fully in swing and VSiN has you covered with every way you can possibly bet on a baseball game. Normally, Adam Burke will have daily best bets to give you some ideas of what to back when it comes to moneylines, run lines and totals, while I focus on feeding you all player props. However, Adam is off on Sundays, so I'm tackling everything before we get back to our regularly scheduled programming tomorrow. Keep reading to find out how I'm betting three of the games on the MLB schedule for Sunday, July 16th. 

MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on July 16

Here are our favorite MLB prop bets for Sunday, July 16th: 

San Francisco Giants (-145, 9.5) at Pittsburgh Pirates

Alex Wood is coming off a start in which he pitched 5.0 innings of shutout ball against the Colorado Rockies. It was actually the second time in three starts that he posted that exact stat line, so it’s not like Wood always goes out there and struggles. The lefty does, however, sprinkle in a lot of miserable starts. One of them came against the Pirates back on May 31st, when Pittsburgh scored six runs on eight hits in only 4.1 innings against him. Considering how poorly he pitched against the Pirates in that one, it’s hard to lay off Pittsburgh at plus-money odds here.

Wood is a starter that does better work when pitching on the road, which is a little odd. So, he might be more comfortable out there in this game. But the lefty is also a much better pitcher at night, and this one is going to be very early for a west coast team.

As far as Osvaldo Bido goes, it’s not the most inspiring starter for the Pirates to have out there. However, San Francisco hasn’t been as good against righties this season as they have been in previous years. As long as the Giants don’t chase him early, I like the Pirates to get the job done here. It doesn’t hurt that Pittsburgh is 10-8 as a home underdog of +125 or higher this year.

Bet: Pirates ML (+125)

Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds (-135, 11)

Ben Lively is 4-5 with a 3.83 ERA and 50 strikeouts this season. Overall, this has been an up-and-down year for the 31-year-old, but things have been a bit better lately. Lively has allowed two or fewer earned runs in each of his last three starts, and he has also done a better job of missing bats. Lively has had at least five strikeouts in six of his last eight outings. With him dialed in a bit in recent weeks, while also racking up decent strikeout numbers on the year, it’s hard not to like him to hit the five-strikeout mark against Milwaukee.

This season, the Brewers have the third-highest strikeout rate in the league. The number is up at 24.9%. It does go down a little against righties, but it’s still high enough to target them. Lively actually had five strikeouts when he faced the Brewers back on June 4th, so he has already proven he can hit this number. That was also a start in which he was pretty lousy, so he should hit the mark if he’s a bit sharper.

Bet: Lively Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-132)

New York Yankees (-215, 11.5) at Colorado Rockies

Nolan Jones was the top prospect in the Cleveland Guardians organization in 2021, but the team decided to trade him for Juan Brito. Apparently, it had a lot to do with Cleveland being worried about Jones’ inability to make contact in the minors. However, Jones still has a lot of potential, and he has shown that off early in his first year with the Rockies. Jones is batting .283 with eight doubles, six homers and 15 RBIs this season.

Jones has done some of his best work against right-handed pitching this year, as he’s batting .292 with seven doubles, five homers and 12 RBIs against them. With that said, I do like him to potentially do some damage against Gerrit Cole in this game. Cole is obviously one of the best swing-and-miss pitchers in the league, so Jones might have an ugly at-bat or two. But this is a start at Coors Field, and I don’t expect Cole to make it through this outing unscathed. With that said, I wanted to find a player on Colorado that can potentially get an extra base hit or take him deep. Jones is the one that stood out, especially at +130 odds.  

Bet: Jones Over 1.5 Total Bases (+130)

Did you know that you can parlay these three picks together at +809 odds? Try out our VSiN Parlay Calculator HERE!

VSiN MLB Links 

MLB Betting Splits

MLB Injury Report

MLB Team Power Ratings

MLB Odds

VSiN Daily Baseball Bets Podcast

back to news

Live On Air

Streaming Now: The Greg Peterson Experience

play Watch Live radio Listen Live


A Numbers Game: Be careful betting baseball games right now, if they don’t involve teams still trying to make the playoffs. Teams that have clinched or teams that are completely out of it will be approaching games far differently. View more tips.

Ian Cameron: USC at Colorado - OVER (73.5). View more picks.