Greg Peterson's MLB value plays for Sunday, May 21

By Greg Peterson  ( 

May 21, 2023 07:10 AM


Greg Peterson posts his daily handicapped MLB lines for every game every day. Based on his lines vs. the actual lines, here is where Peterson sees value on today's menu. Peterson also does a daily podcast, The Baseball Betting Show, on which he breaks down every game every day.

Cubs vs. Phillies Total 9. Greg’s Total 8.3.

Cubs starter Justin Steele has been one of the best pitchers in the league in limiting hard contact, allowing two home runs in 55 1/3 innings to register a 2.44 ERA this season. The Phillies' offense is 18th among MLB teams in runs per game and 20th in home runs per game, but they have the second-best home ERA among National League teams at 3.51.

Diamondbacks (-125) vs. Pirates. Greg’s Line: Diamondbacks -141.

Diamondbacks starter Merrill Kelly faces a Pirates offense that has scored three runs or fewer in 14 of their last 17 games while Kelly is posting a 1.19 road ERA this season. Kelly has allowed one or zero runs in every road start this season while Pirates starter Roansy Contreras has a 5.57 ERA at home this season. He has to try to shut down a Diamondbacks lineup that is sixth in the league in runs per game and leads the National League in batting average.

Tigers vs. Nationals Total 8.5. Greg’s Total 7.8.

Nationals starter Josiah Gray has a 2.08 ERA with three runs or fewer allowed in each of his last eight. He has allowed just two home runs across 47 2/3 innings in this stretch. Both offenses are struggling with the Tigers last in the league in runs per game on the road with 3.4 and the Nationals 26th in runs per game at home with 3.4. Both teams are in the bottom five among MLB teams in home runs.


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