Best Bets on Today's MLB Player Props Market
The 2023 MLB season is underway and VSiN has you covered with every way you can possibly bet on a baseball game. As always, Adam Burke will have daily best bets to give you some ideas of what to back when it comes to moneylines, run lines and totals. However, I'm tackling player props here, and I'm targeting Yu Darvish, Giancarlo Stanton and Eduardo Rodriguez on Friday, July 14th. Keep reading to find out how I'm betting on all of them.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on July 14
Here are our favorite MLB prop bets for Friday, July 14th:
It isn’t very often that you get an earned runs prop that is as high as Yu Darvish’s today, especially for a pitcher that isn’t completely miserable. But Darvish was in a bad way heading into the All-Star break, giving up at least four earned runs in four of his previous six outings. Darvish has also done some of his worst work on the road this year, as he’s just 3-3 with a 6.16 ERA in seven road starts.
Darvish now faces a Phillies team that has quite a few players that have done damage against him the past. Kyle Schwarber and Trea Turner have combined to hit three doubles and four homers off the righty, and both of them are batting at least .300 against him. Meanwhile, Bryce Harper is another guy that has gone yard against Darvish twice. With that said, there is trouble at every turn for Darvish. And when a total seems oddly high, it’s usually for a reason. The oddsmakers are trying to bait you into taking the Under.
Bet: Darvish Over 3.5 Earned Runs Allowed (+120)
This play is very similar to the Darvish one, as 2.5 is a very rare total when it comes to total bases. And it’s especially bizarre in this case, as Stanton is only batting .203 with nine homers and 23 RBIs this season. Of course, Stanton has missed a lot of time this season, so those numbers don’t tell the whole story. But he has struggled this season and the oddsmakers are still showing him a lot of respect.
Part of the reason this is a good spot for Stanton is that he has always crushed left-handed pitching and he now gets to face Austin Gomber. Gomber is 7-7 with a 6.40 ERA this season, and he has a miserable 7.84 ERA at home. His pitching style just isn’t good enough to overcome spending most of his time in the most hitter-friendly ballpark in the league. And it’s hard to imagine Stanton not finding a way to take advantage of this situation.
Stanton makes such hard contact with the ball that anything he hits will go flying at Coors Field. In 23 career games at this ballpark, Stanton has hit nine doubles and 10 homers. I think he’ll come through with at least one extra base hit here, and I actually would suggest sprinkling Stanton to hit a homer.
Bet: Stanton Over 2.5 Total Bases (+120)
Eduardo Rodriguez struck out seven batters in his last start before the break, and he did it only 4.0 innings of work. Rodriguez has now reached at least seven strikeouts in five starts this season, and I like him to reach that mark in this one. And the plus-money odds don’t hurt either.
Rodriguez hasn’t gotten the chance to face this Mariners team this season, but Seattle has quite a bit of trouble making contact. The team has the second-highest strikeout rate in baseball in 2023, with that number being 25.7% this season. And that number goes up a little against lefties, which is another reason to like this one.
I flirted with the idea of going with the Over on Rodriguez’s outs recorded instead, but he hasn’t been a guy that has consistently worked deep in games this year. So, it makes more sense to grab these favorable odds, as he can easily hit his strikeout mark in a short stint on the mound.
Bet: Rodriguez Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+120)
Did you know that you can parlay these three picks together at +964 odds? Try out our VSiN Parlay Calculator HERE!
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