Best Bets on Today's MLB Player Props Market
We're in the final stretch of the 2023 MLB season and VSiN continues to have you covered with every way you can possibly bet on a baseball game. As always, Adam Burke will have daily best bets to give you some ideas of what to back when it comes to moneylines, run lines and totals. However, I'm tackling player props here, and I'm targeting Patrick Corbin, Pete Alonso and Lance Lynn on Thursday, August 17th. Keep reading to find out how I'm betting on all of them.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on August 17
Here are our favorite MLB prop bets for Thursday, August 17th:
Patrick Corbin is a pitcher that people like to blindly fade, but he’s not a complete lost cause. Corbin has actually turned in 11 quality starts this season, and I think he has been a lot better than advertised. In fact, Corbin has left the mound with three or fewer earned runs in 17 of his 24 starts this season. That’s a relatively high number and goes to show that his somewhat high ERA of 4.85 is the cause of some blowups. But more often than not, he has been solid for the Nationals in 2023. And I think he’ll give the Red Sox some trouble today.
Yesterday, I had MacKenzie Gore to have Over 15.5 outs recorded against this Red Sox team, and I noted that it was because Boston was 17th in wRC+ against lefties since the start of July. Well, the Sox are facing another lefty today, but they’re now down to 19th in wRC+ against southpaws in that time frame. They struggled mightily against Gore last night, and I now think they’ll have some issues scoring against Corbin. So, I’m taking the lefty to give up Under 3.5 earned runs.
Bet: Corbin Under 3.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-135)
This game has the highest total on the board today, so I think this is the best place to attack hitter props. And one that I really like for tonight is for Pete Alonso to go Over 1.5 total bases. Tonight, Alonso will get a crack at Cardinals veteran Adam Wainwright, who is 3-7 with an 8.78 ERA this season. And Alonso is 3 for 7 with two doubles off the righty in his career, so this matchup has brought him success before.
Alonso has also gone Over 1.5 total bases in two of his last three games, as he homered on Wednesday and hit a double on Monday. The 28-year-old really hasn’t been hitting well all season, but he still makes big-time contact and is always a threat to reach multiple total bases because of that. I feel pretty good about Alonso hitting a double or a homer in this spot, so this is a play I love at even money.
Bet: Alonso Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100)
Lance Lynn has had a pretty rough season, but he has looked reenergized since arriving in Los Angeles. Lynn has allowed three or fewer earned runs in each of his three starts for the Dodgers, and he has racked up 22 strikeouts in that span. Tonight, I like Lynn to go out and strike out seven hitters against the Brewers.
Milwaukee has gotten a bit better about striking out less since the start of the season, but the Brewers still have the eighth-highest strikeout rate in baseball in 2023. That makes this a plus matchup for Lynn, who is listed at plus-money odds to reach seven strikeouts tonight. That seems like a very generous number considering he has struck out at least seven batters in 11 starts this year. This is also a guy that had a 16-strikeout performance earlier in the year.
Bet: Lynn Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+105)
Did you know that you can parlay these three picks together at +613 odds? Try out our VSiN Parlay Calculator HERE!
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