Expert MLB Player Props Today: Bet on Nathaniel Lowe, Zack Greinke and Joe Musgrove on Tuesday, July 4th

July 4, 2023 07:27 AM

Best Bets on Today's MLB Player Props Market 

The 2023 MLB season is underway and VSiN has you covered with every way you can possibly bet on a baseball game. As always, Adam Burke will have daily best bets to give you some ideas of what to back when it comes to moneylines, run lines and totals. However, I'm tackling player props here, and I'm targeting Nathaniel Lowe, Zack Greinke and Joe Musgrove on Tuesday, July 4th. Keep reading to find out how I'm betting on all of them. 

MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on July 4

Here are our favorite MLB prop bets for Tuesday, July 4th:  

Texas Rangers (-120, 10.5) at Boston Red Sox

This is going to be a bullpen game for the Red Sox, so it’s hard to put too much weight into splits here. But this game has the highest total on the board today and the Rangers are favored to win the game. So, it’s implied that Texas will have a decent day at the plate in this one and that’s why it makes sense to turn to one of the Rangers for hitter props here.

The player I’m going with in this game is Nathaniel Lowe, who I like to reach at least two total bases. Lowe is batting .272 with a triple, 22 doubles, nine homers and 45 RBIs this season. He has been an extremely dangerous hitter for three years in a row now, and I think he can mash a bit this afternoon.

Lowe’s numbers are solid against both righties and lefties this season, so he won’t be completely worthless when the Red Sox throw a lefty on the mound. At plus-money odds, I just think it’s more likely than not that he gets us an extra base hit — or two hits.

Bet: Lowe Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115)

Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins (-195, 9)

Zack Greinke has some of the worst stuff in the league at this point in his career, but he has still found a way to be somewhat effective as a 39-year-old. More importantly, Greinke has had nine starts this season in which he has struck out at least four batters. And if he does that against the Twins, we’ll cash in at plus-money odds.

It’s not going to be fun tracking this bet, as Greinke really has no business striking out four or more batters. But the Twins have the highest strikeout rate in baseball against right-handed pitching, so it feels like this is worth a shot. Greinke has started two games against Minnesota this season, and he hit the four-strikeout mark in one of them. That alone makes this worthy of a flier.

Bet: Greinke Over 3.5 Strikeouts (+106)

Los Angeles Angels at San Diego Padres (-130, 7.5)

This game has a very low total, which shouldn’t be too surprising with two good starters battling it out on the mound here. But I didn’t quite expect to get +130 odds on Joe Musgrove to give up three or more earned runs against this Angels team. Los Angeles is fourth in the league in wRC+ against right-handed pitching this year, so this is one of the more dangerous teams in the league when it comes to facing righties.

Musgrove has been stellar in June, as he has a 2.25 ERA in 36.0 innings on the mound. But he has also had five starts this year in which he has allowed at least three earned runs. With that in mind, I don’t think it’s out of the question that the Angels find a way to get to him here. There are a few players on this Los Angeles team that have hit Musgrove hard in the past, with Mike Moustakas and Anthony Rendon being two to keep an eye on.

Bet: Musgrove Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (+130) 

Did you know that you can parlay these three picks together at +918 odds? Try out our VSiN Parlay Calculator HERE!

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