Expert MLB Player Props Today: Bet on Mitch Keller, Gerrit Cole and Edouard Julien on Friday, July 28th

July 28, 2023 08:27 AM

Best Bets on Today's MLB Player Props Market 

The 2023 MLB season is underway and VSiN has you covered with every way you can possibly bet on a baseball game. As always, Adam Burke will have daily best bets to give you some ideas of what to back when it comes to moneylines, run lines and totals. However, I'm tackling player props here, and I'm targeting Mitch Keller, Gerrit Cole and Edouard Julien on Friday, July 28th. Keep reading to find out how I'm betting on all of them. 

MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on July 28

Here are our favorite MLB prop bets for Friday, July 28th:  

Philadelphia Phillies (-155, 8.5) at Pittsburgh Pirates

Mitch Keller has come crashing down after his electric start to the season, and his last two starts have been particularly alarming. The righty has allowed 14 earned runs on 19 hits over his last 11.0 innings of work, and he now has to face a Phillies team with quite a few dangerous hitters. Despite that, I still think Keller’s strikeout total is a little too low in this game, so I’m taking a chance on the Over. I don’t think it’s outrageous to expect him to rack up six strikeouts, even in a lousy outing. In fact, he had seven strikeouts in his most recent start, and he gave up six earned on nine hits in that one.

This Phillies lineup is filled with guys that can crush the ball, but it also has players that can struggle to make contact, at times. That said, it isn’t surprising that Philadelphia has the eight-highest strikeout rate in baseball. And Keller has had at least six stirkeouts in 14 of his 21 starts this season, so this should be light work for him. Keller is also sharper when pitching at home this season, so he will likely be looking forward to getting back to Pittsburgh after a poor outing out west.

Bet: Keller Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+104)

New York Yankees (-125, 8.5) at Baltimore Orioles

Gerrit Cole comes into this game after having allowed two or fewer earned runs in seven of his last nine outings. Cole also happened to grind his way through a somewhat shaky start against the Kansas City Royals last week, giving up just two earned runs in a game in which he gave up five hits in 6.1 innings. Now, I’d expect Cole to be a bit smoother in this meeting with the Orioles.

Baltimore’s lineup is definitely a very good one, which is why this team is in first in the AL East and is viewed as a buyer at the trade deadline. But the Orioles are just a middle-of-the-pack offense when it comes to hitting righties, so this isn’t exactly the perfect matchup for them. Baltimore also happened to get to Cole for five runs on six hits back on May 23rd, and I think it’s highly unlikely they’ll do it again. The ace will have a better approach to attacking this young team. With all of that in mind, I like Cole to go out and give up less than three earned runs in this game.

Bet: Cole Under 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-130) 

Minnesota Twins (-165, 10) at Kansas City Royals

Edouard Julien has been a little cold recently, but he’s batting .320 with a triple, 11 doubles and 10 homers against right-handed pitching this year. So, when looking for players that can possibly take advantage of Brady Singer tonight, he’s the one that stood out as a tremendous value for Minnesota. I just don’t think it’s too unlikely that Julien will come away with a couple of hits or an extra base hit in this game, especially with the way Singer is pitching this season.

Singer is now 6-8 with a 5.55 ERA on the year, and he just hasn’t looked anything like the promising young player we saw in 2022. Singer has given up at least seven hits in eight of his outings this year, which is a pretty high number at this point in the season. The righty just can’t be trusted to go out there and avoid hard contact right now, and I like Julien’s chances of coming through at the plate.

There are some other players on this Minnesota team that have had a lot of success against Singer, so I understand if you want to attack this another way. But you have to pay up for those guys, while Julien is something of a hidden gem.

Bet: Julien Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115) 

Did you know that you can parlay these three picks together at +675 odds? Try out our VSiN Parlay Calculator HERE!

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A Numbers Game: Be careful betting baseball games right now, if they don’t involve teams still trying to make the playoffs. Teams that have clinched or teams that are completely out of it will be approaching games far differently. View more tips.

Ian Cameron: USC at Colorado - OVER (73.5). View more picks.