Best Bets on Today's MLB Player Props Market
The 2023 MLB season is underway and VSiN has you covered with every way you can possibly bet on a baseball game. As always, Adam Burke will have daily best bets to give you some ideas of what to back when it comes to moneylines, run lines and totals. However, I'm tackling player props here, and I'm targeting Michael Conforto, Josiah Gray and Spencer Strider on Thursday, April 6th. Keep reading to find out how I'm betting on each of them.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on April 6
Here are our favorite MLB prop bets for Thursday, April 6:
Michael Conforto has had a little trouble getting himself going this season, as he has just three hits in 21 at-bats thus far. However, this is a guy that hasn’t played since the 2021 season, so it was always going to take him a little time to get used to playing in real games. The lefty slugger even struggled a bit in Spring Training, as he only batted .213 in 15 games before this season.
We do, however, like this spot for Conforto quite a bit. Lance Lynn is undoubtedly a very good pitcher, but the righty is far from unhittable. And while their history facing one another is brief, Conforto has gotten the best of the 35-year-old in the past. In five at-bats against Lynn, Conforto has three hits — with one of those hits being a double.
Conforto has always been a monster against right-handed pitching, as he’s batting .264 with an on base percentage of .264 and a slugging percentage of .500 against righties in his career — compared to a .226 average, .314 on base percentage and .378 slugging percentage against lefties. With that in mind, we think the 30-year-old will be eager to get out there and make something happen with his bat.
Bet: Conforto Over 0.5 Hits (-175)
Josiah Gray is a guy that the Nationals are really excited about, as the 25-year-old has nasty stuff and is coming off a tremendous Spring Training performance. Over 16.1 innings of work, Gray gave up only one earned run, so he entered the season with a ton of confidence. However, Gray got lit up by the Atlanta Braves in his first start of the regular season, giving up five earned runs on seven hits in only 5.0 innings of work. Now, the righty must head out to Coors Field to take on the Rockies.
Last year, Colorado struggled against right-handed pitching overall, but the team was seventh in the league in wRC against them when playing at Coors Field. The Rockies were also 11th in the league in ISO against righties when playing at home, and only eight teams scored more runs than they did against righties at home last year.
It’s just a different beast playing in the conditions at Coors Field, so we’re expecting Gray to have some trouble against this lineup. Look for him to give up at least three earned runs in this one. These Rockies bats should come alive in their home opener.
Bet: Gray Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-148)
Spencer Strider had nine strikeouts in Atlanta’s season opener, but that was against a miserable Nationals team. Now, Strider will look to replicate that success against a Padres lineup that is very talented. That makes it a little hard to believe he’ll reach that strikeout mark again in this one.
This season, San Diego has the third-lowest strikeout percentage in the league, with the Padres only doing so 16.8% of the time. And that doesn’t exactly seem like a fluke either, as they struck out less than 21 other teams in 2022. This San Diego squad is good at making contact and that should prevent the Padres from getting embarrassed here.
Bet: Strider Under 8.5 Strikeouts (-148)
Did you know that you can parlay these three picks together at +341 odds? Try out our VSiN Parlay Calculator HERE!
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