Best Bets on Today's MLB Player Props Market
We're in the final stretch of the 2023 MLB season and VSiN continues to have you covered with every way you can possibly bet on a baseball game. As always, Adam Burke will have daily best bets to give you some ideas of what to back when it comes to moneylines, run lines and totals. However, I'm tackling player props here, and I'm targeting Luis Castillo, Aaron Judge and Adam Wainwright on Thursday, September 7th. Keep reading to find out how I'm betting on all of them.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on September 7
Here are our favorite MLB prop bets for Thursday, September 7th:
Luis Castillo has had a remarkable season for the Mariners, as he’s 11-7 with a 3.19 ERA and 183 strikeouts and he has a legitimate shot at winning the AL Cy Young Award. However, Castillo has been at his best when pitching in Seattle, where he’s 7-3 with a 2.49 ERA. On the road, Castillo is just 4-4 with a 3.99 ERA. That means he’s a little more beatable away from home, and I think the Rays can make him uncomfortable tonight. So, I’m taking Castillo to give up at least five hits here. He has actually allowed at least five hits in four of his last six starts, and he also happened to give up seven hits in his only start against the Rays this season. With that in mind, I think this is a very reasonable number and I don’t mind laying some juice on it.
Bet: Castillo Over 4.5 Hits Allowed (-140)
Eduardo Rodriguez has had Aaron Judge’s number in the past, as the Yankees star is just 6 for 31 with a double and a homer against the lefty. However, Judge is off to a hot start in September and generally hits lefties pretty hard. So, I’m ignoring the head-to-head history and jumping on Judge to go Over 1.5 total bases. It’s just not everyday that you get this type of price on Judge to have a big game, so I think you need to try and take it while you can. After all, New York is favored in this game and the runs are going to need to come from somewhere. Sure, maybe rookie sensation Jasson Dominguez stays hot at the plate, but I think Judge will have a big game tonight. He had two hits, with one of them being a double, on Wednesday and should approach the plate with confidence.
Bet: Judge Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105)
Adam Wainwright isn’t a pitcher that misses a lot of bats at this point in his career, but he has had at least three strikeouts in nine of his 18 starts this year. Now you’re getting some big plus-money odds on him to hit that mark against the Braves tonight, and there’s no way I’m turning that down. I know Atlanta has the best offense in baseball, but the Braves are expecting to tee off on Wainwright tonight. That could lead to some over-aggressive swings, which would put Wainwright in a position to strike out more batters than expected in this spot. Wainwright is also coming off a start in which he gave up just one run in 6.0 innings against the San Diego Padres. So, the righty might be feeling good heading into this outing.
Bet: Wainwright Over 2.5 Strikeouts (+125)
Did you know that you can parlay these three picks together at +653 odds? Try out our VSiN Parlay Calculator HERE!
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