Best Bets on Today's MLB Player Props Market
The 2023 MLB season is underway and VSiN has you covered with every way you can possibly bet on a baseball game. As always, Adam Burke will have daily best bets to give you some ideas of what to back when it comes to moneylines, run lines and totals. However, I'm tackling player props here, and I'm targeting Jose Urena, Randy Arozarena and Kevin Gausman on Wednesday, April 12th. Keep reading to find out how I'm betting on each of them.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on April 12
Here are our favorite MLB prop bets for Wednesday, April 12:
This season, Jose Urena is 0-2 with a 14.40 ERA through two starts. He pitched just 2.1 innings in his first start of the year, giving up five hits, walking four batters and leaving with four earned runs allowed. He then turned in a similar performance in his second start, giving up four earned on seven hits in only 2.2 innings. Unfortunately for Urena, there’s likely another rough outing coming.
Today’s meeting between the Cardinals and Rockies has an outrageously high total of 13, so there’s sure to be a ton of runs scored at Coors Field today. A lot of those should come at the expense of Urena, as the Cardinals have a very dangerous lineup and are significantly favored here.
This Cardinals team is fifth in baseball in wRC against righties this season, while also having the fifth-best batting average in MLB against them. Also, only two teams have more hits off righties than St. Louis this year.
The only thing that can potentially get in the way of this Over hitting would be Urena struggling so much that he’s yanked before ultimately giving up the fourth run. But this is still a bet you have to take given the circumstances.
Bet: Urena Over 3.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-115)
In his first start of the year, Chris Sale gave up seven hits and seven earned runs in only 3.0 innings of work against the Baltimore Orioles. The lefty then followed it up by giving up three earned in 5.0 innings against the Detroit Tigers. That second start was a big improvement for the former ace, but it also came against a team that can’t hit. With that in mind, you shouldn’t be surprised if Sale now struggles against a Rays team that is 11-0 this season.
While it has only been two starts, Sale’s hard hit percentage is higher than it has been in his entire career, and the same also goes for his barrel percentage. The lefty has still been striking batters out, but they are also making more hard contact on his pitches than ever. And a lot of that has to do with Sale’s spin rate being down on pretty much all of his go-to pitches.
With Sale struggling like this, it just makes a lot of sense to back somebody on the Rays to come through at the plate. And being that it’s a lefty-heavy lineup, Randy Arozarena is the best bet to do so. The 28-year-old has been dialed in this season, hitting .326 with two homers and 11 RBIs. And Arozarena has done some of his best work against southpaws throughout his career, so there really is no reason to believe he won’t do some damage up there tonight.
Bet: Arozarena Over 1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Kevin Gausman hasn’t given up an earned run all season, so the 32-year-old is dealing to start the year. Now, Gausman gets to face a Tigers team that has one of the worst offenses in baseball this season. Detroit has the second-lowest batting average in the majors this year, and no team has scored fewer than the 30 runs the Tigers have produced. The advanced stats also happen to back up those numbers up, making for a tremendous matchup for Gausman.
The Blue Jays righty hasn’t yet recorded more than 18 outs in a single start this season, but he has hit the 90-pitch mark. And overall, it wouldn’t be surprising if Toronto lets him throw 95 or so pitches in this one. And considering how weak his opponent is, his normal pitch count should go a lot further here than it has gone elsewhere.
It’s just hard not to want to back Gausman in some capacity, and this is one of the ways to do it without juiced odds. So, we’re taking a shot on it and hoping for the plus-money win.
Bet: Gausman Over 18.5 Outs Recorded (+120)
Did you know that you can parlay these three picks together at +887 odds? Try out our VSiN Parlay Calculator HERE!
VSiN MLB Links
MLB Betting Splits
MLB Injury Report
MLB Team Power Ratings
VSiN Daily Baseball Bets Podcast