Best Bets on Today's MLB Player Props Market
The 2023 MLB season is underway and VSiN has you covered with every way you can possibly bet on a baseball game. As always, Adam Burke will have daily best bets to give you some ideas of what to back when it comes to moneylines, run lines and totals. However, I'm tackling player props here, and I'm targeting Jeimer Candelario, Joe Ryan and Bryan Woo on Monday, July 3rd. Keep reading to find out how I'm betting on all of them.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on July 3
Here are our favorite MLB prop bets for Monday, July 3rd:
There aren’t any games on the board with absurdly high totals today, but this one feels like it could be pretty high scoring. It actually has the highest total of any game tonight, and that generally means it’s a good one to attack with hitters props. With that said, I wanted to look for hitters that might be able to do some damage against Luke Weaver, who is just 1-2 with a 6.96 ERA this season. And the player that stood out is Jeimer Candelario.
This season, Candelario is batting .278 with two triples, 18 doubles and 10 homers against right-handed pitching. He has been the team’s most dangerous hitter against righties, and he now gets to face a weaker one tonight. That makes it a little hard to believe that Candelario is available at +125 odds to reach two total bases. The 29-year-old is swinging a hot bat right now, as his average has gone from .245 to 2.64 in just about two weeks. Why not back him to stay hot?
Bet: Candelario Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125)
There have been times this season in which Joe Ryan has looked like a legitimate ace for the Twins. The 27-year-old is 8-5 with a 3.44 ERA and 105 strikeouts in 96.2 innings of work this year. Ryan has good stuff and a good feel for how to navigate lineups, and I think he’ll find a way to work deep into this game against the Royals tonight.
Kansas City has the lowest wRC+ in baseball against right-handed pitching this season, so this isn’t a Royals lineup that will be very comfortable working against Ryan. In fact, Ryan threw 6.0 innings of one-run ball against the Royals in his first start of the year and he did that on the road. That’s especially important when you factor in that Ryan has a 2.70 ERA in seven home starts this season, while his ERA is up at 4.14 on the road.
I just don’t see much getting in the way of Ryan flirting with seven innings pitched here. And the fact that 6.1 innings is available at +150 odds is too hard to pass up.
Bet: Ryan Over 18.5 Outs Recorded (+150)
Bryan Woo has been missing a lot of bats since getting his shot with the Mariners. The 23-year-old, who is the third-ranked prospect in the entire organization, is viewed as a future star for Seattle, and he has definitely impressed early on. Woo has had at least seven strikeouts in three of his last four starts, and he has done so while not working very deep in games. Woo has a fastball that consistently touches the upper 90’s and that allows him to strike out a lot of batters.
Tonight, Woo gets a crack at a Giants team that struggles to make contact against right-handed pitching. This San Francisco squad has the fourth-highest strikeout rate in baseball against righties, and that makes it hard to believe the team will be able to avoid striking out against Woo regularly. And I don’t see the moment getting to the youngster here either. A night start in San Francisco might intimidate some, but Woo pitched 5.1 innings of shutout ball in Yankee Stadium two weeks ago.
With all of that in mind, I love the value on Woo to strike out at least six batters at plus-money odds.
Bet: Woo Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+104)
Did you know that you can parlay these three picks together at +1047 odds? Try out our VSiN Parlay Calculator HERE!
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