Best Bets on Today's MLB Player Props Market
The 2023 MLB season is underway and VSiN has you covered with every way you can possibly bet on a baseball game. As always, Adam Burke will have daily best bets to give you some ideas of what to back when it comes to moneylines, run lines and totals. However, I'm tackling player props here, and I'm targeting J.D. Martinez, Carlos Rodon and Hogan Harris on Wednesday, July 26th. Keep reading to find out how I'm betting on all of them.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on July 26
Here are our favorite MLB prop bets for Wednesday, July 26th:
J.D. Martinez has been dealing with a hamstring injury, but he came back and homered in last night’s win over the Toronto Blue Jays. Martinez has now reached at least two total bases in each of the last three games he has played, and I believe he has the best chance of anybody of reaching two total bases in today’s meeting with Yusei Kikuchi.
Kikuchi has been great for Toronto this season, but Martinez is 2 for 9 with two homers against the lefty in his career. And overall, it wouldn’t surprise me if the veteran takes Kikuchi yard again here. But at the very least, I think it’s fair to expect at least two hits, or an extra base hit in this one. Martinez hasn’t been great against southpaws this season, but he has absolutely crushed them throughout his career.
Kikuchi is also a pitcher that can struggle a bit when pitching on the road, so I can see him making some mistakes in this game.
Bet: Martinez Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105)
Carlos Rodon struggled in an outing against the Los Angeles Angels last game, giving up six earned runs in 4.1 innings of work. Rodon has now allowed 10 earned runs over his last two starts, but I care more about the fact that he is approaching the 90-pitch mark. He has been in the high 80’s in each of his last two outings, and those were games that he was more or less chased from. If he pitches a bit better, he should start throwing 6.0 or so innings pretty regularly.
From what I’ve seen of Rodon, he isn’t that far away from starting to find his form. His control isn’t quite there right now, but his velocity and spin rates are nearly identical to where they were last season. With that in mind, I like the idea of starting to back his pitcher props. That’s why I’m going with him to record at least 16 outs against the Mets. This isn’t an opponent that hits southpaws all that hard, so the matchup is definitely working in his favor.
Bet: Rodon Over 15.5 Outs Recorded (-130)
Hogan Harris was a top-25 prospect in the Athletics organization back in 2021. Injuries have really derailed his career, but he has found a way to make it up to the bigs. Harris doesn’t have outrageous velocity on his fastball, but he gets some good movement on it. And his slurve and changeup are two pitches that can really fool hitters. That has helped him strike out at least five batters in five of his last six starts — and seven of his last 10. Now, Harris gets to face a Giants team that has the sixth-highest strike out rate in the league against lefties.
San Francisco also comes into this game after having scored two or fewer runs in six of its last seven games. So, this Giants offense is really in a bad way right now. With that said, I don’t really see them teeing off against Harris and chasing him from this game. And if the lefty works his way into the sixth inning or so here, he should reach the six-strikeout mark. The fact it’s available at plus-money odds is just the cherry on top.
Bet: Harris Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+120)
Did you know that you can parlay these three picks together at +697 odds? Try out our VSiN Parlay Calculator HERE!
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