Best Bets on Today's MLB Player Props Market
The 2023 MLB season is finally here and VSiN has you covered with every way you can possibly bet on a baseball game. As always, Adam Burke will have daily best bets to give you some ideas of what to back when it comes to moneylines, run lines and totals. However, I'm tackling player props here, and I'm targeting David Peterson, Manny Machado and Amed Rosario on the second day of the MLB season. Keep reading to find out how I'm betting on each of them.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on March 31
Here are our favorite MLB prop bets for Friday, March 31:
Last season, David Peterson spent time as both a reliever and a starter. However, he did start two games against the Marlins, and those starts went very well for him. Peterson allowed just two earned runs over 12.1 total innings of work against Miami, and the lefty struck out 15 batters over those two outings. With that in mind, we’re rather comfortable playing the over on his strikeout total tonight — especially with it being down at 5.5.
The Marlins had the fifth-highest strikeout rate in Major League Baseball last season, as Miami struck out 24.0% of the time. But that number was low compared to how the Marlins did against lefties. Miami had the highest strikeout rate in the league against southpaws last year, with the number being all the way up at 27.7%. And unfortunately for the Marlins, Peterson is indeed a lefty.
Peterson was also excellent for the Mets in Spring Training. He threw 12.0 innings of scoreless ball and struck out 13 batters in those frames. This is a guy that is feeling good and has the perfect matchup. So, how can we pass up this play?
Bet: Peterson Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+100)
We had Manny Machado to have at least two total bases against the Rockies last night, but he ended up going 1 for 3 with a single and an RBI. Unfortunately, that wasn’t good enough for us to cash on the 30-year-old, but we’re going right back to him tonight.
Over the last few seasons, Machado has proven that he is just as capable of hitting righties as he is lefties. However, he’ll face Kyle Freeland in tonight’s game, and he has hit this specific lefty hard in the past. In his career, Machado has 12 hits in 38 at-bats against Freeland. That’s a batting average of .316 and that shows that the superstar is very comfortable with this matchup.
Machado does only have two RBIs against Freeland in his career, but that’s just bad luck. If the slugger ends up getting a hit or two in this game, you’ll feel good about his chances of driving in a run. Machado is hitting third in what is a dangerous lineup, so he’ll have plenty of opportunities to bring somebody home.
The Padres are also -195 favorites in this game. And if they’re going to get the job done, the production is going to come from somewhere. So, at plus-money odds, you might as well bet on their best player recording one measly RBI.
Bet: Machado Over 0.5 RBIs (+160)
Amed Rosario is coming off his best year in the pros, as he hit .283 with nine triples, 26 doubles, 11 homers and 71 RBIs in 153 games for the Guardians — while also posting a career-high 4.1 WAR. Rosario has now been a very solid hitter in three of the last four years, and he seems poised for a big season in Cleveland in 2023.
Tonight, we’re looking to Rosario to have two or more total bases in a meeting with the Mariners. It’ll be Robbie Ray that takes the mound for Seattle in this one, and it’s a little unclear what that means at this point. Two years ago, Ray was the AL Cy Young winner as a member of the Toronto Blue Jays, but he was just 12-12 with a 3.71 ERA in his first season in Seattle. It’ll be interesting to see which version of the lefty shows up in 2023, but we should note that last year’s numbers were more in line with what we’ve seen from him in his career.
No matter how well Ray pitches this season, this is still a matchup that we like for Rosario. Last year, Rosario had a .295 batting average against lefties, and his on base percentage and slugging percentage were up against southpaws, too. And Rosario’s splits against lefties have always been spectacular. So, this is a guy that will be excited to see a lefty on the hill tonight.
Rosario has also had some success against Ray in his career. In 10 at-bats against the lefty, Rosario has five hits — with three of them being doubles. For that reason, we like Rosario to go out and do some damage tonight. Whether it’s one extra base hit or just two singles, we’ll take what we can get from Rosario in a matchup that clearly suits him well.
Bet: Rosario Over 1.5 Total Bases (+128)
Did you know that you can parlay these three picks together at +1085 odds? Try out our VSiN Parlay Calculator HERE!
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