Best Bets on Today's MLB Player Props Market
The 2023 MLB season is underway and VSiN has you covered with every way you can possibly bet on a baseball game. As always, Adam Burke will have daily best bets to give you some ideas of what to back when it comes to moneylines, run lines and totals. However, I'm tackling player props here, and I'm targeting Byron Buxton, Lucas Giolito and Ezequiel Tovar on Friday, April 7th. Keep reading to find out how I'm betting on each of them.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on April 7
Here are our favorite MLB prop bets for Friday, April 7:
It’s pretty surprising to see that Byron Buxton’s total bases prop is only 0.5 in tonight’s game. After all, Jose Urquidy got beat up a bit in his first start of the season, giving up seven hits and three earned runs in only 4.0 innings of work. And Urquidy isn’t exactly a guy that you expect complete domination from when he toes the rubber.
Buxton also happens to be batting .350 early in this season, so it’s not like he comes into this game on a slump. Perhaps there’s something we’re not seeing when it comes to this matchup, but this play almost seems like a layup — at least as far as value goes. Sure, Buxton is hitless in his career against Urquidy, but that’s only in two at-bats. That’s way too small of a sample size to rule out him getting a single hit tonight. With that in mind, we’re keeping it simple and taking this.
Bet: Buxton Over 0.5 Total Bases (-130)
The Pirates are likely going to throw a lefty-heavy lineup out there to face Lucas Giolito tonight, but that’s fine for those backing the righty to go over his strikeout total tonight. Giolito actually has a slightly higher strikeout rate against lefty bats than he does against righties, so that isn’t going to throw him off all that much here.
The Pirates had the third-highest strikeout rate in the league against right-handed pitching last season, so this lineup is definitely prone to swinging and missing rather often. Giolito also happened to have six strikeouts in 5.0 innings of work against the Astros in his first start of the year, and this lineup should be easier for him to navigate.
It’s also worth noting that Giolito’s 3.83 road ERA last season was a lot better than his 6.08 home ERA. So, he should be rather comfortable pitching outside of Chicago. In fact, he has always been a guy that has done his best work on the road.
Bet: Giolito Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-125)
Tonight’s meeting between the Nationals and Rockies has the highest total of any game on the board, so it seems like a good opportunity to take a swing on somebody to drive in a run. And when looking at our options, one of the ones that stands out is Ezequiel Tovar. The 21-year-old is off to a very slow start to the season, but he has strung together hits in back-to-back games. So, he should be feeling a little confident heading into this one.
The Nationals also happen to be sending a lefty out to the hill here, as they’re turning to MacKenzie Gore tonight. Gore was great in a meeting with the Atlanta Braves that saw him pitch 5.1 innings of one-run ball in his first start of the year. However, heading out to Colorado and playing in Coors Field is a whole different beast.
Tovar is also a hitter that likes facing southpaws, so he should get up for this one. And these odds are so good that it’d just feel wrong not taking a shot on this.
Bet: Tovar Over 0.5 RBIs (+220)
Did you know that you can parlay these three picks together at +919 odds? Try out our VSiN Parlay Calculator HERE!
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