Betting Splits and MLB Sharp Money Picks for Wednesday May 3

May 3, 2023 02:25 AM


Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Wednesday's betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET. 

You can also track the VSiN Betting Splits for every game. 

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Wednesday's MLB action...


6:40 p.m. ET: New York Mets (-210, 8.5) at Detroit Tigers

The Mets (16-13) just split a doubleheader with the Braves on Monday, losing the opener 9-8 as +170 home dogs but then winning the nightcap 5-3 as -105 home dogs. Meanwhile, the Tigers (10-17) just dropped three of four at home against the Orioles, losing 5-3 on Sunday as +130 home dogs. In tonight's Interleague series opener, New York hands the ball to righty Max Scherzer (2-1, 3.72 ERA) and Detroit counters with fellow righty Michael Lorenzen (0-1, 7.07 ERA). This line opened with the Mets listed as a -200 road favorite and the Tigers a +175 home dog. Pros aren't scared off by the heavy juice and have steamed the Mets up from -200 to -210. Road Interleague favorites are 31-17 (65%) this season. Non-division favorites -200 or more are 37-14 (73%). Road favorites who made the playoffs the previous season against teams who did not are 54-29 (65%). The Mets have the better bats (.242 vs .222) and superior pitching (4.48 ERA vs 4.80 ERA). New York is 12-6 as a favorite, 10-7 on the road and 11-6 against righties. Detroit is 9-17 as a dog, 5-7 at home and 7-14 against righties. 


7:40 p.m. ET: Baltimore Orioles (-150, 9) at Kansas City Royals

The Orioles (20-9) took last night's series opener 11-7, cashing as -175 road favorites. In tonight's rematch, Baltimore turns to righty Kyle Gibson (4-0, 3.93 ERA) and Kansas City (7-23) starts fellow righty Zack Greinke (0-4, 6.10 ERA). This line opened with the Orioles listed as a -145 road favorite. Sharps are riding the hot hand, driving Baltimore up from -145 to -150. Some shops are inching closer to -155. The Orioles are receiving 85% of bets and 96% of money, a heavy combination of both Pro and Joe support. Non-division road favorites are 79-43 (65%) this season. Non-division favorites off a win are 114-61 (65%). Favorites who missed the playoffs the previous season are 117-68 (63%). The Orioles have a big edge at the plate (hitting .261 vs .220) and on the mound (4.31 ERA vs 5.68 ERA). Baltimore is 13-2 as a favorite, 10-5 against righties and 11-5 on the road. Kansas City is 7-21 as a dog, 5-17 against righties and 1-13 at home. 


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