Betting Splits and MLB Sharp Money Picks for Wednesday July 5

July 5, 2023 03:14 AM

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Wednesday's betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET. 

You can also track the latest odds and percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Wednesday's MLB slate...


8:40 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Angels at San Diego Padres (-175, 8.5)

The Padres (40-46) have taken the first two games of this Interleague series, winning the opener 10-3 as -200 home favorites and then winning again yesterday 8-5 as -150 home favorites. In tonight's series finale, the Angels (45-43) hand the ball to lefty Patrick Sandoval (4-7, 4.57 ERA) and the Padres counter with righty Seth Lugo (3-4, 3.59 ERA). This line opened with San Diego listed as a -170 home favorite and Los Angeles a +145 road dog. Sharps have gotten down on the Padres to complete the sweep, steaming San Diego up from -170 to -175. The Padres are receiving 72% of bets but 91% of money, signaling modest public support but also heavy sharp action. Interleague favorites off a win are 126-72 (64%) with a 5% ROI this season. Sandoval posted a 7.11 ERA in five June starts. The Angels are just 1-7 in Sandoval's last eight starts. Lugo had a 2.25 ERA in three June starts. Los Angeles will be without star outfielder Mike Trout, who was placed on the IL with a wrist injury. Pros have also leaned under, as the total opened at 9 and has fallen to 8.5. The Padres are 48-31 (61%) to the under this season, the best under team in MLB.


9:40 p.m. ET: New York Mets (-115, 9.5) at Arizona Diamondbacks 

The Mets (39-46) won Tuesday's series opener 8-5, taking care of business as -150 road favorites. In tonight's rematch, the Mets turn to righty Kodai Senga (6-5, 3.53 ERA) and the Diamondbacks (50-36) go with lefty Tommy Henry (5-1, 4.08 ERA). This line opened with New York listed as a -120 road favorite and Arizona a +110 home dog. The public is split down the middle and doesn't know which side to take. However, despite this even ticket count we've seen the Mets fall from -120 to -115. This signals smart money grabbing the Diamondbacks as a short home dog (+110 to +100). Arizona is receiving 50% of bets but 66% of money, a notable sharp bet discrepancy. The Diamondbacks are 21-14 (60%) after a loss this season. Arizona has a big edge at the plate, hitting .261 compared to .240 for New York. The Snakes are 23-22 as a dog, 36-24 against righties and 24-21 at home. The Mets are 29-16 as a favorite, 9-19 against lefties and 19-27 on the road. Arizona also has correlative betting value as a dog in a high total game (9.5), as the more expected runs scored leads to more variance and upset opportunities. The Snakes are 6-0 in Henry's last six starts. 

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