Betting Splits and MLB Sharp Money Picks for Wednesday July 26

July 26, 2023 06:40 AM

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Wednesday's betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET. 

You can also track the latest odds and betting percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Wednesday's MLB action...


1:10 p.m. ET: Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardians (-200, 10.5)

This is the rubber match of a three-game series. The Royals (29-74) won the opener 5-3, cashing as +175 road dogs. Then the Guardians (50-51) bounced back with a 5-1 win yesterday, taking care of business as -200 home favorites. In this early afternoon series finale, the Royals start righty Alec Marsh (0-4, 6.20 ERA) and the Guardians send out fellow righty Gavin Williams (1-2, 3.74 ERA). This line opened with Cleveland listed as a -180 home favorite and Kansas City a +165 road dog. Pros aren't scared off by the expensive price and have steamed the Guardians up from -180 to -200. Cleveland is receiving 87% of bets and 94% of money, signaling both public and sharp support. The Guardians have the better bats (hitting .253 vs .232), better pitching (team ERA 3.85 vs 5.23) and better bullpen (rating +8 vs -26). Kansas City is just 14-38 on the road, 27-64 as a dog, 21-56 against righties and 10-26 in the division. Williams has made two starts against the Royals this season and Cleveland has won both games. Williams went 5.2 innings giving up 3 runs and striking out 7 in a 10-6 win on July 8th and went 7 innings giving up no runs and striking out 6 in a 2-1 win on June 27th. 


8:10 p.m. ET: Chicago Cubs (-115, 9) at Chicago White Sox

The Cubs (49-51) won last night's Interleague series opener 7-3, cashing as -115 road favorites. In tonight's rematch, the Cubs hand the ball to righty Marcus Stroman (10-7, 3.09 ERA) and the White Sox (41-61) counter with fellow righty Lance Lynn (6-9, 6.18 ERA). This line opened at a virtual pick'em with both sides listed at roughly -105 odds. Sharps have pounced on the Cubs at a cheap chalk price, steaming the Cubs up to -115. The Cubs are receiving 80% of bets and 89% of money, signaling a heavy combination of both Pro and Joe support. Sweet spot short road favorites -115 to -150 are 176-121 (59%) this season with a 5% ROI. Road Interleague favorites off a win are 55-30 (65%) this season with a 9% ROI. The Cubs have the edge at the plate (hitting .253 vs .238) and on the mound (team ERA 4.11 vs 4.60). The Cubs also have the better bullpen (+4 vs -7). The Cubs are 7-4 since the All Star Break. The White Sox are 3-7. The Cubs are 29-19 (60%) as a favorite. The White Sox are 22-43 (34%) as a dog and just 29-47 (38%) against righties. 

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