Betting Splits and MLB Sharp Money Picks for Wednesday July 19

July 19, 2023 07:05 AM

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Wednesday's betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.

You can also track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Wednesday's MLB slate...


12:35 p.m. ET: Cleveland Guardians (-135, 9) at Pittsburgh Pirates

The Guardians (47-48) have dominated this Interleague series so far, winning both games by a combined margin of 21-1. In today's early afternoon series finale, Cleveland hands the ball to righty Aaron Civale (3-2, 2.65 ERA) and the Pirates (41-54) counter with lefty Rich Hill (7-9, 4.76 ERA). This line opened with the Guardians listed as a -125 road favorite and the Pirates a +110 home dog. Pros aren't outsmarting themselves here. They're laying the chalk with Cleveland to sweep the series, steaming the Guardians up from -125 to -135. Cleveland is receiving 77% of bets and 82% of money, signaling a heavy combination of both Pro and Joe support. Sweet spot short road favorites -120 to -150 are 145-78 (65%) this season with a 14% ROI. Road Interleague favorites off a win are 52-24 (68%) with a 15% ROI. The Guardians have the better bats (hitting .252 vs .236), betting pitching (team ERA 3.84 vs 4.51) and superior bullpen (rating +14 vs -5). Civale has a 1.50 ERA in three July starts and a 1.69 ERA on the road. Meanwhile, Hill has a 6.60 ERA in three July starts, with the Pirates losing all three games. 


7:10 p.m. ET: San Francisco Giants (-110, 10.5) at Cincinnati Reds

The Giants (54-41) have taken the first two games of this series, winning the opener 4-2 as -105 road favorites and then winning again 11-10 yesterday as -135 road favorites. In tonight's series finale, the Giants start righty Ross Stripling (0-2, 6.11 ERA) and the Reds (50-46) send out fellow righty Graham Ashcraft (4-7, 5.95 ERA). This line opened with San Francisco listed as a -125 road favorite and Cincinnati a +115 home dog. The public is riding the Giants to complete the sweep. However, despite receiving 57% of bets we've seen San Francisco fall from -125 to -110. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Reds, with pros steaming Cincinnati down from +115 to +100. Cincinnati is receiving 43% of bets but 71% of dollars, a notable sharp contrarian bet split. The Reds have correlative betting value as a dog in a high total game (10.5), with more expected runs scored leading to more variance and upset opportunities. This is also a classic buy low, sell high spot as the Giants are 5-0 since the break and the Reds are 0-5. Ashcraft has a 1.50 ERA in two July starts, giving up just two runs in 12 innings pitched. 

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