Betting Splits and MLB Sharp Money Picks for Wednesday August 9

August 9, 2023 07:09 AM

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Wednesday's betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET. 

You can also track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Wednesday's MLB slate...


6:40 p.m. ET: St. Louis Cardinals at Tampa Bay Rays (-150, 9.5) 

The Rays (69-46) took Tuesday night's series opener 4-2, cashing as -170 home favorites. In tonight's rematch, the Cardinals (49-65) start righty Dakota Hudson (2-0, 4.10 ERA) and the Rays counter with lefty Jalen Beeks (2-3, 6.27 ERA). This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as low as a -140 home favorite and St. Louis a +120 road dog. Sharps are going back to the well with the Rays, steaming Tampa Bay up from -140 to -150. The Rays are receiving 77% of bets and 80% of money, indicating both public and sharp support. Tampa Bay has classic interleague favorite value, as the lack of familiarity benefits the better team. Interleague favorites off a win receiving 10-cents of steam or more are 44-24 (65%) this season with a 6% ROI. AL East favorites playing teams outside the division are 176-93 (65%) with a 7% ROI. The Rays are 38-19 at home and 55-40 against righties. The Cardinals are 24-32 on the road and 11-17 against lefties. Both teams are hitting roughly .256. The difference comes on the mound, with Tampa Bay sporting a 3.77 team ERA compared to 4.52 for St. Louis. The Rays also have a far better bullpen rating (+15 vs -6). 


7:10 p.m. ET: Chicago Cubs (-115, 9) at New York Mets

This is the rubber match of a three-game series. The Mets (51-62) won the opener 11-2, cashing as -140 home favorites. Then the Cubs (59-55) bounced back with a 3-2 win last night, taking care of business as -135 road favorites. In tonight's series finale, the Cubs hand the ball to righty Kyle Hendricks (4-6, 3.98 ERA) and the Mets send out lefty David Peterson (3-7, 5.65 ERA). This line opened at roughly a pick'em with both sides listed around -110. Pros have pounced on Chicago at a cheap price, steaming the Cubs up from -110 to -115. Chicago is receiving 79% of bets and 89% of money, signaling a heavy combination of both Pro and Joe support. Non-division road favorites off a win are 135-93 (59%) this season. The Cubs have the better bats (hitting .257 vs .237), better pitching (team ERA 4.15 vs 4.38) and better bullpen (rating +12 vs -12). The Cubs are also the 3rd-best team in MLB against lefties (20-16, 56%, 11% ROI). Chicago is 35-20 as a favorite. New York is just 9-30 as a dog, the 2nd-worst dog record in MLB behind only the Athletics. Chicago is 14-4 in their last 18 games. Hendricks has a 2.78 ERA on the road this season (compared to 5.50 at home).

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