Betting Splits and MLB Sharp Money Picks for Wednesday August 16

August 16, 2023 06:39 AM

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Wednesday's betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.

You can also track the latest odds and betting percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Wednesday's MLB slate...


7:05 p.m. ET: Boston Red Sox (-170, 9) at Washington Nationals

The Red Sox (63-56) took Tuesday night's Interleague series opener 5-4, cashing as -170 road favorites. In tonight's rematch, the Red Sox start lefty James Paxton (7-3, 3.36 ERA) and the Nationals (53-67) counter with fellow southpaw MacKenzie Gore (6-9, 4.62 ERA). This line opened with Boston listed as a -160 road favorite and Washington a +140 home dog. Sharps have laid the chalk with Boston, steaming the Red Sox up from -160 to -170. Boston is receiving roughly 75% of bets and dollars, indicating both Pro and Joe support. The Red Sox have classic "Interleague Favorite" value, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team. Interleague favorites off a win are 177-103 (63%) this season with a 4% ROI. AL East favorites playing teams outside the division are 185-103 (64%) with a 5% ROI. The Red Sox are 19-12 against lefties. The Nats are 18-24 against lefties. Boston also has the better bullpen (+5 vs -5). Paxton has given up 2 earned runs or less in 6 of his last 8 starts. Gore has a 6.55 ERA over his last 7 starts. The Red Sox are 6-2 in their last eight games, just got star shortstop Trevor Story back from the injured list and are now just three games back of the final Wild Card spot in the American League. 


8:05 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers (-180, 9) 

The Rangers (72-48) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 12-0 as -200 home favorites and then winning again 7-2 last night as -200 home favorites. In tonight's series finale, the Angels (59-62) hand the ball to lefty Reid Detmers (2-9. 5.27 ERA) and the Rangers counter with righty Jon Gray (8-5, 3.65 ERA). This line opened with Texas listed as low as a -160 home favorite and Los Angeles +140 road dog. Pros are riding the red-hot Rangers to complete the sweep, steaming Texas up from -160 to -180. The Rangers are receiving 83% of bets but 98% of money, signaling public support but also heavy smart money. Home favorites off a win receiving 5-cents of steam or more are 164-97 (63%) this season with a 3% ROI. The Rangers are 22-12 (65%) against lefties and 35-15 (70%) as a home favorite. Texas has the better bats (hitting .273 vs  .251) and superior bullpen (+2 vs -13). The Rangers are 12-2 over their last 14 games. Meanwhile, the Angels are just 3-11 over their last 14 games. Detmers has a 19.89 ERA in two August starts. Texas is a -160 favorite to win the AL West (currently 3.5 games up on the Astros), the favorite to win the American League (+350) and also have the 3rd best odds to win the World Series (+750), trailing only the Braves (+330) and Dodgers (+425).

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