Betting Splits and MLB Sharp Money Picks for Wednesday April 12

April 12, 2023 02:31 AM


Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Wednesday's betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET. 

You can also track the VSiN Betting Splits for every game. 

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Wednesday's MLB action...


1:10 p.m. ET: San Diego Padres at New York Mets (-115, 8.5)

The Mets (6-6) won the opener 5-0, cruising as -130 home favorites. Then the Padres (7-5) bounced back with a 4-2 win yesterday, cashing as +120 road dogs. In this early afternoon series finale and rubber match, San Diego hands the ball to lefty Blake Snell (0-1, 7.88 ERA) and New York counters with righty Tylor Megill (2-0, 1.64 ERA). This line opened with the Padres listed as a short -120 road favorite and the Mets a +100 home dog. Sharps have gotten down hard on New York, flipping the Mets all the way from a +100 dog to a -115 favorite. Essentially, the Mets are taking in "dog to favorite" line movement. New York is only receiving 47% of bets but 78% of money, a sharp contrarian bet discrepancy. Non-division favorites receiving 10-cents of steam or more are 30-19 (61%) since season. Favorites off a loss who made the playoffs the previous season are 323-190 (63%) since 2022. The total is 8.5 with the under juiced to -115, signaling some under liability and a possible dip down to 8. The forecast calls for high 70s with 10-15 MPH winds blowing from left to right. 


1:10 p.m. ET: Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins (-160, 8.5)

The White Sox (5-7) took the series opener 4-3, cashing as -135 road favorites. Then the Twins (7-4) rebounded with a 4-3 extra-winning win yesterday, taking care of business as -175 home favorites. In this early afternoon series finale, the White Sox turn to righty Lucas Giolito (0-0, 9.00 ERA) and the Twins rebuttal with fellow righty Sonny Gray (1-0, 0.75 ERA). This line opened with Minnesota listed as a -150 home favorite and Chicago a +135 road dog. Pros have pounced on Minnesota to win the rubber match, steaming the Twins up from -150 to -160. The Twins are receiving 72% of bets and 84% of money, signaling a heavy combination of both Pro and Joe support. Minnesota's big advantage comes on the mound (2.64 ERA vs 5.97 ERA). The Twins are +13 in run differential. Chicago is -15. Sharps have also hit the over, raising the total from 8 to 8.5. Overs are 95-70 (58%) this season. The over is receiving 57% of bets but 92% of money, a massive sharp bet discrepancy. The forecast calls for high 70s with wind blowing out to left center at 10-15 MPH. Chicago is 8-3-1 to the over this season.

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