Betting Splits and MLB Sharp Money Picks for Tuesday September 5

September 5, 2023 04:13 AM

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Tuesday's betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET. 

You can also track the latest odds and betting percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Tuesday's MLB action...


7:40 p.m. ET: Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals (-115, 9.5) 

The Royals (43-96) cruised to a 12-1 win in last night's series opener, easily cashing as a -165 home favorite. In tonight's rematch, the White Sox (53-85) start righty Dylan Cease (6-7, 4.91 ERA) and the Royals counter with fellow righty Brady Singer (8-10, 5.15 ERA). This line opened at roughly a pick'em with both sides listed around -110 odds. Pros have laid the short chalk price with Kansas City, steaming the Royals up from -110 to -115. Kansas City is receiving 64% of bets and 72% of money, indicating slight public support but also heavy sharp action. Home favorites off a win with steam 5-cents or more in their direction are 190-114 (63%) this season. Home favorites off a blowout win of 10-runs or more are 24-14 (63%) this season. The White Sox are 32-64 (33%) as a dog, 25-45 (36%) on the road and 38-65 (37%) against righties. Cease posted an 8.07 ERA in six August starts. He has a 5.37 ERA on the road compared to 4.50 at home. Conversely, Singer posted a 3.94 ERA in five August starts. He has a 3.98 ERA at home compared to 6.91 on the road. Singer led the Royals to a 4-3 win over the White Sox at home back on May 11th, going six innings and giving up just one run. Cease gave up 7-earned runs over five innings in a 12-5 loss at Kansas City on May 8th. 


9:38 p.m. ET: Baltimore Orioles (-155, 9) at Los Angeles Angels

The Orioles (88-51) won last night's series opener 6-3, taking care of business as -185 road favorites. In tonight's rematch, the Orioles start righty Dean Kremer (12-5, 4.20 ERA) and the Angels (64-74) send out lefty Reid Detmers (3-10, 5.01 ERA). This line opened with Baltimore listed as a -145 road favorite and Los Angeles a +120 home dog. Pros are riding the hot hand, driving the Orioles up from -145 to -155. Baltimore is receiving 89% of bets and 97% of money, signaling lopsided action in their favor from both Pros and Joes. Sweet spot short road favorites from -125 to -155 are 187-108 (63%) this season with a 9% ROI. AL East favorites playing teams outside the division are 215-123 (64%). The Orioles have the better bats (hitting .256 vs .249) and superior pitching (team ERA 4.03 vs 4.74). Baltimore is 47-20 (70%) as a favorite, 44-25 (64%) on the road and 28-15 (65%) against lefties. Kremer posted a 2.37 ERA in five August starts. He has also been better on the road (3.77 ERA) than at home (4.50). Detmers posted a 7.94 ERA in five August starts. Baltimore also holds the motivational edge, leading the AL East by 3.5-games while the Angels are 12.5-games back in the AL Wild Card race. Los Angeles is just 3-11 over their last 14 games and have waived several key players recently, thereby waiving the proverbial white flag. 

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